海南房地产健康发展与预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 22:17

本文选题：房地产 + 健康发展　；参考：《海南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产业是国民经济发展的重要产业,相关研究表明,与它密切相关的产业多达60个,一旦出现大的波动,就会牵连其他相关产业的发展,因此,房地产业的健康发展对国民经济发展至关重要。2010年元月“国际旅游岛”建设正式上升为国家战略,这一诱因促使海南房地产市场出现“井喷”。面对房价的飞速增长,除了必要的政策法规约束之外,更加迫切需要建立预警机制对海南房地产市场健康状况进行检测评价,以提前应对房地产市场出现的各种不利因素,促进房地产市场朝向合理、健康、平稳的道路发展。通过对比研究发现,国内外目前关于房地产预警机制测算方法有三种：景气循环法、系统模型法和综合模拟法。考虑到景气循环法对环境要求较高,而在房地产市场本来就庞杂的情况下采用系统模型法又比较困难和复杂,因此,综合考虑各方面因素,在海南采用综合模拟法构建房地产预警机制较为合适。综合模拟法基本思路：依据指标体系全面性、简捷性、稳定性、实用性、区域性原则,结合区域房地产预警指标体系选取标准,构建一套能够反映地区房地产市场的较为合理完善的指标体系；在指标体系基础上,通过该方法确定具体的衡量标准,结合地方房地产市场的发展状况,判断实际指标数值是否超出健康发展区间；若超出健康区间,则发出预警信号,并对房地产市场未来走势做出判断。通过梳理海南房地产业的发展历程,把握海南房地产市场发展环境的特殊性,构建一套符合海南房地产健康状况判断标准的指标体系来定量分析海南房地产市场的健康状况,并运用指数平滑法预测2013年各指标数据,以期对海南房地产未来发展做出有效预警,是有理论与实际意义的。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important industry in the development of national economy. Related studies show that there are as many as 60 industries closely related to it. Once there is a big fluctuation, it will involve the development of other related industries. The healthy development of the real estate industry is very important to the development of the national economy. In January 2010, the construction of the "International Tourism Island" rose to the national strategy, which prompted the Hainan real estate market to appear "blowout". In the face of the rapid growth of house prices, in addition to the necessary policy and regulation constraints, it is more urgent to establish an early warning mechanism to detect and evaluate the health status of Hainan's real estate market in order to deal with all kinds of adverse factors in the real estate market ahead of time. Promote the real estate market towards a reasonable, healthy, stable road development. Through the comparative study, it is found that there are three methods for calculating the early warning mechanism of real estate at home and abroad: boom cycle method, system model method and comprehensive simulation method. Considering the relatively high environmental requirements of the boom cycle approach and the difficulty and complexity of adopting the system model approach when the real estate market is already a complex one, it is therefore a comprehensive consideration of various factors, It is more appropriate to construct real estate early warning mechanism by comprehensive simulation method in Hainan. The basic idea of comprehensive simulation method: according to the index system comprehensiveness, simplicity, stability, practicability, regional principle, combined with the regional real estate early warning index system selection criteria, Build a set of reasonable and perfect index system which can reflect the regional real estate market, on the basis of the index system, determine the concrete measure standard through this method, combine the development condition of the local real estate market, Determine whether the actual indicator value exceeds the healthy development range; if it exceeds the healthy range, send an early warning signal and make a judgment on the future trend of the real estate market. Through combing the development course of Hainan real estate industry, grasping the particularity of Hainan real estate market development environment, constructing a set of index system that accords with Hainan real estate health condition judgment standard to quantitatively analyze Hainan real estate market health condition. It is of theoretical and practical significance to use the exponential smoothing method to predict the data of every index in 2013 in order to make an effective early warning for the future development of Hainan real estate.
【学位授予单位】：海南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.27

【参考文献】