利率变动对国房景气指数的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 03:19

本文选题：利率 + 国房景气指数　；参考：《河北工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年住房分配制度改革后我国房地产市场有了迅速的发展，房地产业作为国民经济的支柱，对经济增长有相当大的促进作用。我国的房地产业发展面临着广阔前景和良好机遇，同时，房地产行业在发展过程中也体现出了一些特征：一方面，房地产市场逐渐趋于健康和理性。另一方面，可以看出目前政府政策对房地产市场的影响非常大。从2005年的“国八条”到2013年的“国五条”，政府对房地产业发展的一系列宏观调控政策，绝对不是要打压或抑制房地产业的发展，相反，国家完全是为了引导和扶植房地产业更好地，健康地发展。随着利率市场化程度的逐步提高，利率政策作为一项非常重要的货币政策宏观调控的方式，近年来一直是国家政府对房地产市场的发展进行宏观调控的一种重要手段，利率作为一种调控杠杆对房地产业发展的影响有必要重新审视。本文运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法研究了利率变动对国房景气指数的影响，并且具体分析了利率变动对国房景气分类指数的影响，对于研究利率对房地产业发展的影响，进而对国家宏观调控政策中的利率政策提出相关意见，使房地产业健康持续的发展具有一定的现实意义。首先，在理论分析部分，通过分析利率变动对房地产供求两大相关主体的影响，定性的分析出利率变动对国房景气指数存在着影响，并且二者之间的关系较复杂。其次，在实证分析部分，先通过VAR模型下的Granger因果性检验、平稳性检验以及协整检验方法分析国房景气指数的主要影响因素即利率、居民消费价格指数、国内生产总值、货币供应量、土地购置价格对国房景气指数的影响，得到利率的变动对国房景气指数有显著影响；然后分析不同期贷款利率分别对国房景气分类指数的影响得出，利率变动对国房景气指数的影响是显著的，利率通过对国房景气分类指数的影响来间接影响国房景气指数。其中对房地产开发投资影响最大的是三至五年期贷款利率。对本年资金来源影响最大的是一年期贷款利率。对土地开发面积影响最大的是五年以上期贷款利率。对商品房空置面积影响最大的是五年以上期贷款利率。对房屋施工面积影响最大的是五年以上期贷款利率。对商品房销售价格影响最大的是一年期贷款利率。因此想要提高国房景气分类指数就可以通过调整相应的利率即可达到。综合来讲，，对国房景气指数影响最大的是五年以上期的贷款利率，即长期利率。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing distribution system in 1998, China's real estate market has developed rapidly. As a pillar of national economy, real estate industry plays a significant role in promoting economic growth. The development of real estate industry in China is faced with broad prospects and good opportunities. At the same time, the real estate industry has some characteristics in the process of development: on the one hand, the real estate market tends to be healthy and rational. On the other hand, we can see that the impact of government policies on the real estate market is very large. From the "eight articles" of 2005 to the "five articles of the State" in 2013, a series of macro-control policies of the government on the development of the real estate industry are absolutely not intended to suppress or suppress the development of the real estate industry. On the contrary, The country is completely in order to guide and foster the real estate industry better, healthy development. With the gradual improvement of interest rate marketization, interest rate policy as a very important way of monetary policy macro-control, in recent years has been a national government to the development of the real estate market macro-control of an important means. Interest rate as a kind of control lever on the development of real estate need to be re-examined. In this paper, the influence of interest rate change on national housing boom index is studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and the impact of interest rate change on national housing boom index is analyzed in detail. It is of practical significance to study the influence of interest rate on the development of real estate industry, and then to put forward relevant opinions on the interest rate policy in the national macro-control policy, so as to make the real estate industry develop healthily and continuously. First of all, in the theoretical analysis part, by analyzing the influence of the interest rate change on the real estate supply and demand, the qualitative analysis shows that the change of interest rate has an impact on the national housing boom index, and the relationship between the two is more complex. Secondly, in the empirical analysis part, through the Granger causality test, the stationary test and the cointegration test under the VAR model, the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the national housing boom index, that is, interest rate, consumer price index, GDP. The influence of money supply and land purchase price on the national housing boom index, the change of interest rate has a significant impact on the national housing boom index; and then the impact of loan interest rates on the national housing boom index is analyzed respectively in different periods. The influence of interest rate change on the national housing boom index is significant, and the interest rate indirectly affects the national housing boom index through the influence of the interest rate on the national housing boom index. Among them, the biggest impact on real estate investment is the three-to-five-year loan interest rate. The most important source of funds this year is the one-year loan interest rate. The biggest impact on the land development area is the interest rate on the five-year loan. The biggest impact on the vacant area of commercial housing is the interest rate on loans in the last five years. The biggest impact on the housing construction area is five-year loan interest rate. The biggest impact on the sale price of commercial housing is one-year loan interest rate. So to improve the housing boom sub-index can be achieved by adjusting the corresponding interest rate. To sum up, the biggest impact on the housing boom index is the five-year loan rate, that is, long-term interest rates.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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