房地产泡沫的形成机理及其影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 17:01

本文选题：房地产泡沫 + 土地财政　；参考：《东华大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产作为实物资产处于涉及众多行业的产业链的终端,同时又是许多金融衍生品的基础资产,因此在国民经济中处于牵一发而动全身的地位。我国自1991年住房制度市场化改革以来,房地产价格经历了长时期的持续上涨。本文旨在剖析我国房地产泡沫的内在机理及其影响,并相应地提出针对性的政策措施。首先,本文测度了我国的房价。本文采用房地产投资额占GDP的比重、房价收入比、房价租金比三个指标,分别从供给、需求、投机三个角度测度了我国的房价,发现三个指标均达到了警戒线以上,说明我国房地产业确实出现了“泡沫化”的现象。其次,本文测度了我国的房地产泡沫。泡沫分为投机泡沫和内在泡沫。投机泡沫反映的是市场的非理性行为,是指由动量投资者追涨杀跌造成的；内在泡沫反映的是市场的理性行为,是指价格围绕外生基本面价值周期性波动的现象。本文利用省际面板数据分析了房地产价格的影响因素,发现基本面因素可以很好的解释房地产价格,因此认为我国的房地产主要泡沫是内在泡沫而非投机泡沫,换句话说,“炒房”更大程度上是房价贵的结果而非其原因。第三,本文深刻剖析了上述基本面因素的内在机理,认为“土地财政”导致的供给不足,国民收入的两极分化、银行系统的金融支持过度、租买选择机制的缺失是造成我国房地产泡沫的根本原因。第四,本文从经济和社会两个维度分析了房地产泡沫化的影响,权衡了房地产泡沫的利弊。最后,本文提出了解决房地产泡沫的措施,认为原则上针对需求的政策应当坚持差别化、针对供给的政策应当从短期抑制逐步过渡到长期放松。
[Abstract]:Real estate, as a physical asset, is at the end of the industrial chain involving many industries, and at the same time, it is the basic asset of many financial derivatives, so it is in the position of pulling the hair and moving the whole body in the national economy. Since the market reform of housing system in 1991, the real estate price has been rising continuously for a long time. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the internal mechanism and influence of the real estate bubble in China, and to put forward corresponding policies and measures accordingly. First of all, this paper measures the housing prices in China. This paper uses the ratio of real estate investment to GDP, the ratio of house price to income, the ratio of house price to rent, measures the house price of our country from three angles of supply, demand and speculation, and finds that the three indexes have reached the warning level. It shows that the real estate industry in our country has really appeared the phenomenon of "froth". Secondly, this paper measures the real estate bubble in China. Bubbles are divided into speculative bubbles and internal bubbles. The speculative bubble reflects the irrational behavior of the market, which is caused by the momentum investors chasing up and killing the fall; the intrinsic bubble reflects the rational behavior of the market and refers to the cyclical fluctuation of the price around the exogenous fundamental value. This paper analyzes the influence factors of real estate price by using inter-provincial panel data, and finds that the fundamental factors can explain the real estate price very well. Therefore, we think that the main bubble of real estate in China is internal bubble, not speculative bubble, in other words, Property speculation is more the result of high house prices than the reason. Thirdly, this paper deeply analyzes the internal mechanism of the above fundamental factors, and holds that "land finance" leads to insufficient supply, polarization of national income, excessive financial support from the banking system. The lack of rent-buying mechanism is the root cause of real estate bubble in China. Fourth, this paper analyzes the impact of real estate bubble from the two dimensions of economy and society, weighing the advantages and disadvantages of real estate bubble. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to solve the real estate bubble, and holds that the policy of demand should be differentiated in principle, and the policy of supply should be gradually transferred from short-term restraint to long-term relaxation.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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