一二线城市房地产价格波动之货币政策解释

发布时间：2018-06-24 12:06

本文选题：货币政策 + 房地产　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来我国一二线城市的房地产价格主要趋势向上，但也随着宏观环境尤其是货币政策的变化起起伏伏。在投资需求的推动下，一二线城市的房地产价格更多的表现出金融投资品的属性。而这种价格的波动，短期内主要受到货币政策的影响。本文主要分析货币政策影响房价的成因以及传导途径，并定量的分析影响程度以及反馈的效应。货币政策通过操作工具实现中间目标，中间目标的实现通过各种传导渠道实现最终目标。其中资产价格的传导机制，尤其是房地产价格的传导渠道，一直是学术界以及企业界共同关注的话题。第一个层级的传导是指货币政策通过中间目标（利率水平、信贷规模，以及在此之外的宏观审慎性窗口指导）来影响到房价。第二个层次的传导是指房价的波动通过财富效应、资产负债表效应到消费与投资，从而影响到社会经济的总产出。这两个层次的传导贯通了货币政策的始末，影响了房地产市场价格，并受到房价波动的影响。货币政策与房地产价格表现出内生性的特点。本文运用常见的Vector Auto Regression（VAR）方法构建模型，，在变量平稳性的基础上进行格兰杰因果检验，以及脉冲分析。结果表明，信贷规模相对于利率水平更能够影响一线城市房价，而一线城市房价的波动表现出正的财富效应，带动了消费，但是对投资没有表现出明显的效应。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate prices in the first and second tier cities of our country are mainly upward, but also rise and fall with the changes of macro environment, especially monetary policy. Driven by the investment demand, the real estate prices of the first and second tier cities show the attributes of financial investment goods more. But this kind of price fluctuation, in the short term is mainly affected by monetary policy. This paper mainly analyzes the causes and conduction ways of monetary policy influencing house price, and quantitatively analyzes the influence degree and feedback effect. Monetary policy achieves the intermediate goal by means of operation tools, and the intermediate goal achieves the final goal through various transmission channels. Among them, the transmission mechanism of asset price, especially the transmission channel of real estate price, has been a common concern of academia and business circles. The first level of transmission is that monetary policy affects house prices through intermediate targets (interest rate level, credit size, and macroprudential window guidance beyond that). The second level of transmission refers to the fluctuation of house prices through the wealth effect, balance sheet effect to consumption and investment, thus affecting the total output of social economy. These two levels of transmission through the monetary policy, affect the real estate market prices, and the impact of house price fluctuations. Monetary policy and real estate prices show endogenous characteristics. In this paper, the common vector Auto regression (VAR) method is used to construct the model, Granger causality test and pulse analysis are carried out on the basis of the smoothness of variables. The results show that the scale of credit can affect the housing prices of first-tier cities more than the level of interest rate, while the fluctuation of housing prices in first-tier cities shows a positive wealth effect, which leads to consumption, but has no obvious effect on investment.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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