货币供应量对我国房地产价格影响的研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 10:44

本文选题：货币供应量 + 房地产价格　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为“第二金融”的房地产在我国经济发展中发挥着重要的作用。房地产市场发展迅猛，市场化程度不断提高。但我国房地产价格收入比过高，购房给居民带来了严重的负担，房地产市场存在一定的泡沫。房地产泡沫一旦破灭，将很有可能复制日本以及东南亚当时的经济危机和金融危机。引起房地产价格暴涨的原因错综复杂，国家也在不断出台各种政策来对房地产市场进行调控，但效果不明显，房地产价格过高的状况仍然没有得到根本上的改善。国家调控房地产价格的手段之一是货币政策工具，通过改变货币供应量是实现货币政策目标的重要手段之一。本文也基于这样的思路上探讨了货币供应量对房地产价格的影响，并分析了货币供应量通过不同渠道来影响房地产市场的机制。在货币供应量上，本文从货币结构视角，即按照我国目前的货币供应量的三个层次来考察各层次货币供应量对房地产价格的影响，同时进行横向的比较它们对房地产价格影响的不同效果。通过选取2001年1月到2011年12月的月度数据，采用向量自回归和向量误差修正模型来对各层次货币供应量对房地产价格的影响进行研究比较。结果表明：M2、M1、M0对房地产价格冲击始终为正，M2对房地产价格的冲击影响程度相对M1、M0较大，，M1、M0对房地产价格的冲击基本保持相同；各层次的货币供应量对房地产价格的作用都存在时滞，但时滞有所不同；从协整检验和协整方程来看，长期内，各层次货币供应量与房地产价格有长期的稳定关系，M2对房地产价格的影响较大，系数达到0.8406，M1对房地产价格的影响相对小于M2但弹性系数也达到了0.5942，M0对房地产价格的影响最小，但在长期内弹性系数与M1几近相同，达到0.5573。长期内，房地产价格对各层次的货币供应量存在Granger意义上的因果关系。各层次货币供应量在长期内是房地产价格的格兰杰原因，但在短期内M0不是引起房地产价格变动的格兰杰原因，房地产价格不是M2、M1的格兰杰原因。最后解释出现这样结论的原因和给出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As the second finance, real estate plays an important role in the economic development of our country. The real estate market develops rapidly, the marketization degree unceasingly enhances. However, the ratio of real estate price to income in our country is too high, the purchase of real estate brings serious burden to the residents, and there is a certain bubble in the real estate market. If the housing bubble bursts, it is likely to replicate the economic and financial crises of Japan and Southeast Asia. The causes of the soaring real estate prices are complicated, and the government has been issuing various policies to regulate the real estate market, but the effect is not obvious, the real estate prices too high still has not been fundamentally improved. One of the measures to control the real estate price is the monetary policy tool, and changing the money supply is one of the important means to achieve the monetary policy goal. This paper also discusses the influence of money supply on real estate price based on this idea, and analyzes the mechanism of money supply influencing real estate market through different channels. In terms of money supply, this paper examines the influence of money supply on real estate prices from the point of view of money structure, that is, according to the three levels of money supply in our country. At the same time, the horizontal comparison of their impact on real estate prices different effects. Based on the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2011, vector autoregressive model and vector error correction model are used to study and compare the effects of money supply on real estate prices at different levels. The results show that the impact of M2M1M0 on real estate price is always the same as that of M1M0 larger than M1M0, and the impact of M1M0 on real estate price remains the same. The effect of money supply at all levels on real estate prices has time delay, but the time lag is different. From the co-integration test and cointegration equation, in the long run, There is a long-term stable relationship between money supply and real estate price at all levels. M 2 has a great influence on real estate price. The influence of coefficient 0.8406N M1 on real estate price is relatively smaller than M2, but elasticity coefficient is 0.5942 M0, which has the least effect on real estate price. But in the long run the elastic coefficient is almost the same as M1, reaching 0.5573. In the long run, real estate prices have a Granger causality to money supply at all levels. Money supply at all levels is the Granger cause of real estate price in the long run, but in the short term M0 is not the Granger cause of real estate price change, and real estate price is not Granger reason of M2CM1. Finally, explain the reasons for this conclusion and give the relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.2

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