市场预期与房地产价格的关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 19:56

本文选题：房地产价格 + 购房者预期　；参考：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产既有一般商品的属性,亦具有作为投资产品的资产属性。作为商品,价格波动反映了供求双方的力量对比,有利于淘汰落后的生产力；但近几年我国房地产价格总体更多的呈现出量价齐升、量价齐跌的资本品价格特征。频繁、剧烈的价格波动不仅直接影响了房地产行业的正常运营和国民经济发展,更会对普通刚需购房者的心理产生冲击,造成社会的不稳定。本文试图从市场主体的预期为切入点,为房地产价格波动提供新的视角和解释,并提出相应的对策。本文在对房地产价格形成机制相关文献及预期对房地产价格形成作用文献回顾后,第二章分析了市场预期对房地产价格形成的影响。首先从微观机制介绍了预期对房价波动的一般作用,其次阐述了市场预期在房地产市场上的传导机制,最后回顾国际上两次重要的房地产泡沫中预期在其中的作用。第三章对购房者预期视角下我国房地产市场的描述性分析,分别对2002—2013年房地产市场特征、消费者预期指数波动的情况及波动原因进行了描述性分析,将期间房价与购房者预期比较,发现二者之间存在明显的联动关系,最后总结了购房者预期影响调控效果的路径。第四章实证研究我国房地产价格与购房者预期的互动关系,选取2007年3月—2013年11月全国商品房平均销售价格、消费者预期指数、工业增长量、货币供应量增长率的月度数据替代变量商品房价格、购房者预期、经济增长及宽松或紧缩的货币政策,然后分别进行单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果分析及脉冲响应分析。结果显示,短期,预期不是影响房价的重要因素,但房价与预期具有长期均衡关系。购房者预期对房价波动具有放大效应,针对对房地产价格波动,中央政府倾向于采取相机的紧缩或宽松政策。最后对本文主要结论进行了总结,从优化预期的角度给出了几点建议,并指出本文的不足待改进之处。
[Abstract]:Real estate has both the attributes of general commodities and assets as investment products. As a commodity, price fluctuation reflects the power contrast between supply and demand, which is conducive to the elimination of backward productive forces. Frequent and violent price fluctuations not only directly affect the normal operation of the real estate industry and the development of the national economy, but also have an impact on the psychology of ordinary rigid demand buyers, resulting in social instability. This paper tries to provide a new angle of view and explanation for the fluctuation of real estate price from the perspective of the expectation of the main body of the market, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. After reviewing the literature on the formation mechanism of real estate price and the effect of expectation on the formation of real estate price, the second chapter analyzes the influence of market expectation on the formation of real estate price. This paper first introduces the general effect of expectation on the fluctuation of house price from the micro mechanism, then expounds the conduction mechanism of market expectation in real estate market, and finally reviews the role of expectation in the two important real estate bubbles in the world. The third chapter analyzes the characteristics of the real estate market, the fluctuation of consumer expectation index and the reasons of the fluctuation in the real estate market from 2002 to 2013. By comparing the house prices with the expectations of the buyers, we find that there is an obvious linkage relationship between the two. Finally, we summarize the path that the buyers' expectations affect the effect of regulation and control. The fourth chapter empirically studies the interactive relationship between real estate prices and buyers' expectations, and selects the national average sales price of commercial housing, consumer expectation index and industrial growth from March 2007 to November 2013. The monthly data of money supply growth rate replace commodity housing prices, buyers' expectations, economic growth and loose or tight monetary policies, and then carry out unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality analysis and impulse response analysis respectively. The results show that, in the short run, expectation is not an important factor affecting house price, but the relationship between house price and expectation is long term equilibrium. Home buyers are expected to have a magnifying effect on house price volatility, and the central government is inclined to take a camera tightening or easing policy in response to real estate price volatility. Finally, the main conclusions of this paper are summarized, some suggestions are given from the point of view of optimizing expectation, and the shortcomings of this paper are pointed out.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】