后危机时代我国流动性过剩的新表征与金融调控效果研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 18:42

本文选题：流动性过剩 + 房地产市场　；参考：《河北工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本论文得到2011年国家社会科学基金项目(11BJL048)——“中美经济非对称共生条件下我国流动性重复逆转问题研究”的资助。次贷危机作为世界经济发展史上的一次标志性事件,不仅体现出当今各国空前紧密的经济联系,同时也衍生出许多前所未有的特异经济现象。在此背景下,我国的流动性过剩现象呈现出一些新特征。从2009年到2012年,我国流动性虽然一直处于过剩期,但是过剩程度却并不相同,因此,文章以时间为分界线、以测量数据为依据,将2009年到2012年四年间的流动性过剩情况划分为流动性加速过剩期和流动性温和过剩期。鉴于流动性过剩问题的重要性、不同程度的流动性过剩的危害性,对我国此四年间的流动性过剩情况进行概念划分、根源探究、政策分析就显得非常重要。文章首先通过EM2指标、M2/GDP指标等对2009年-2012年间我国流动性的情况进行测算,结果表明：此四年间,我国流动性总体上呈现过剩局面,但是过剩程度却并不相同。因此,文章将2009年-2010年定义为流动性加速过剩期；将2011年-2012年定义为温和过剩期。在此基础上,分别从国际、国内两个角度分别对每一时期做针对性原因分析。其中,国内方面主要从外贸业、银行业、房地产业三大行业进行分析。在流动性加速过剩期,房地产业全面攀升对加速流动性的作用重大,因此,以房地产业为例进行博弈模型分析,进一步探究房地产攀升背后房价飙升的利益纠葛。同样,在流动性温和过剩期,以银行业为例,通过构建模型分析互保链危机对我国信贷投放的影响作用。在阐述了后危机时代我国流动性过剩呈现出的新表征,分析了这些新表征出现的根源后,研究此时期我国政府相应的金融调控政策,则能够提高对这一问题的研究完整性,同时提升对这一问题的研究深度。因此,本文从存款准备金政策、利率政策、汇率政策以及房地产金融等角度分别研究各种政策对于缓解流动性过剩的效果如何。最后,根据各种政策的效果大小,为我国将来调控流动性过剩局面提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper is supported by the 2011 National Social Science Foundation (11BJL048), "the study on the repeated reversal of liquidity in China under the condition of asymmetric symbiosis between China and the United States". As a landmark event in the history of world economic development, the subprime mortgage crisis not only reflects the unprecedented close economic relations among countries, but also gives rise to many unprecedented special economic phenomena. In this context, the phenomenon of excess liquidity in China presents some new characteristics. From 2009 to 2012, China's liquidity has been in a period of excess, but the degree of excess is not the same. Therefore, the paper takes time as the dividing line and measures the data as the basis. The excess liquidity between 2009 and 2012 is divided into accelerated excess liquidity period and moderate excess liquidity period. In view of the importance of the problem of excess liquidity and the harmfulness of excess liquidity in different degrees, it is very important to classify the concept of excess liquidity in the past four years in China. This paper first measures the liquidity of China from 2009 to 2012 by EM2 / M2 / GDP. The results show that the liquidity in our country is overflowing in the past four years, but the degree of excess is not the same. Therefore, the article defines 2009-2010 as a period of accelerated excess liquidity, and 2011-2012 as a period of mild excess. On this basis, respectively from the international and domestic two angles to each period of targeted cause analysis. Among them, the domestic aspect mainly from the foreign trade industry, the banking industry, the real estate industry carries on the analysis. In the period of acceleration of excess liquidity, the real estate industry has a significant role in accelerating liquidity. Therefore, taking the real estate industry as an example, the game model analysis is carried out to further explore the interests of the soaring real estate prices behind the rise of real estate. Similarly, in the period of moderate liquidity surplus, taking the banking industry as an example, this paper analyzes the impact of the chain of mutual protection crisis on China's credit supply by constructing a model. After expounding the new characteristics of liquidity surplus in the post-crisis era and analyzing the origin of these new characterizations, the research on the corresponding financial regulation and control policies of our government in this period can improve the integrity of the research on this issue. At the same time, to improve the depth of research on this issue. Therefore, this paper studies the effects of various policies on relieving excess liquidity from the perspective of deposit reserve policy, interest rate policy, exchange rate policy and real estate finance. Finally, according to the effects of various policies, policy suggestions are provided for the future regulation of excess liquidity in China.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.1

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