我国热钱规模的测算及监管问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 12:35

本文选题：热钱 + 规模测算　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：热钱作为一种短期资本，在全世界的范围内迅速流动。曾经的“墨西哥金融危机”和“东南亚金融危机”，是热钱首次亮相于世界经济的舞台；后来20世纪90年代又有许多国家发生了金融危机，热钱在其中也都扮演着非常重要的角色。热钱作为一种特殊的经济形式，其规模愈发壮大，运作手法也愈发复杂，逐渐成为了世界经济领域一股不可小觑的力量。而随着我国经济实力的不断加强，人民币升值预期的不断提升，，以及国内房地产、股价的越发高涨，越来越多的国际热钱瞄准了我国，钻取各种渠道进入我国来套利，这给我国的经济发展带来了重大的影响。热钱是一种刚刚产生于上一世纪的新兴事物，因此关于它的研究，理论和实证领域都尚未完全成熟，可以说，学术界对于热钱的有着褒贬不一的评价。热钱具有一定的合理性，在于它毕竟是一种客观存在的经济事物，其产生和发展具有历史必然性；然而它也颇具危害性，它的投机本性直接导致了经济金融领域可能面临剧烈的动荡。在现在我国经济体制的转轨期内，面对着国际金融领域纷繁复杂的外部环境，我们更应该做好金融领域的监管工作，而如何合理有效地解决热钱带来的问题，则成为我国金融监管工作方面的重中之重。对于热钱给我国实体经济带来的的危害，我们要进行积极的金融管制，将危害减轻至最低程度，坚决遏制盲目的金融自由化，但对于合理的金融创新要予以鼓励和支持，要充分利用热钱带给资本流动和货币流动的益处。本文的研究正是针对日益增多的热钱涌入我国所引起的一系列问题。首先，结合国内外关于热钱的研究现状以及各种热钱研究的经典理论，从热钱的概念及特征来入手；其次，分析并挖掘热钱流入我国的动因及路径渠道，为后面的政策建议进行铺垫；再次，也是本文的核心与创新之处，就是总结了已有的热钱规模的估算方法，并在此基础上运用计量经济学的统计软件进行实证分析、提出了自己总结的一种估算法，目的在于以确切的数据来更为具体地说明热钱流入我国的规模变化，为我国的热钱治理提供参考与依据；最后，根据近些年来我国热钱流动的规模情况，以及热钱对我国经济发展的积极影响及消极影响两方面，分别从削减热钱流动动力、严控热钱流动渠道、加强热钱投机领域防御等角度提出相应的监管政策建议。
[Abstract]:Hot money, as a short-term capital, flows rapidly around the world. The "financial crisis in Mexico" and the "financial crisis in Southeast Asia" were the first appearances of hot money on the stage of the world economy. Later, many countries experienced financial crises in the 1990s. Hot money also plays a very important role in it. As a special economic form, hot money has become a force that can not be underestimated in the field of world economy. With the continuous strengthening of our country's economic strength, the rising expectations of RMB appreciation, and the rising domestic real estate and stock prices, more and more international hot money is aimed at our country, drilling into various channels to arbitrage into our country. This brought great influence to the economic development of our country. Hot money is a new thing that has just emerged in the last century. Therefore, the research, theory and empirical field of hot money are not yet fully mature, it can be said that there are different opinions on hot money in academic circles. Hot money has certain rationality, because it is an objective economic thing after all, its emergence and development has historical inevitability, but it is also quite harmful. Its speculative nature directly led to the economic and financial sector may face severe turbulence. In the transitional period of China's economic system, facing the complicated external environment in the international financial field, we should do a good job in the supervision of the financial field, and how to solve the problems caused by hot money reasonably and effectively. Then become our country's financial supervision work in the top priority. With regard to the harm that hot money brings to the real economy of our country, we should carry out active financial control, reduce the harm to the lowest level, resolutely curb blind financial liberalization, but encourage and support reasonable financial innovation. Take full advantage of the benefits of hot money to capital and money flows. The research of this paper is aimed at a series of problems caused by the increasing hot money flowing into our country. First of all, combining the domestic and foreign research on hot money and the classic theories of various hot money research, starting with the concept and characteristics of hot money; secondly, analyzing and excavating the motivation and path channel of hot money flowing into our country. Thirdly, it is the core and innovation of this paper, which is to sum up the existing methods of estimating the scale of hot money, and use econometrics statistical software to carry on the empirical analysis on this basis. This paper puts forward a kind of estimation method summarized by oneself, the purpose of which is to explain more concretely the change of the scale of hot money flowing into our country with exact data, and to provide reference and basis for the management of hot money in our country. According to the scale of hot money flow in China in recent years, as well as the positive and negative effects of hot money on the economic development of our country, from the aspects of reducing the power of hot money flow and strictly controlling the channels of hot money flow, Strengthen the field of hot money speculation defense and other angles to put forward the corresponding regulatory policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124

【参考文献】