预期视角下城市商品住房价格形成机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-28 14:39

【摘要】：随着改革开放推进和经济的快速发展,城市商品住房市场迅速发展壮大,与此同时房价也在迅速增长,某些城市甚至以每年2%的速度递增,“房价上涨过快”问题一直困扰着城市商品住房市场的发展。房价的虚高给居民带来了沉重的经济压力,使许多居民“望房兴叹”。近年来国家相继出台了国五条、国八条等调控政策,但种种迹象表明,城市商品住房价格仍旧持续增长、居高不下,出现楼市泡沫趋势,严重给整个经济社会带来不稳定因素。房价作为城市商品住房市场发展最直接的指标,其变动已成为社会高度关注的问题。由于城市商品住房价格的形成是市场参与主体综合作用的结果。而城市商品住房市场的垄断性以及其社会属性和资本属性的特点,决定了其价格预期在商品住房市场决策中的重要地位,行为主体的预期与城市商品住房市场运行尤其相关。针对现有的研究大多数是基于开发商或者消费者一方利益分析的,因此,本文试图从兼顾开发商和消费者利益的角度为切入点,结合案例分析预期均衡价格的形成,从而对研究城市商品住房价格形成机制提出了新思路,对于保持房价的平稳合理发展,解决城市商品住房的发展问题,促进房地产健康和谐发展具有重要意义。本文在梳理国内外文献的基础上从预期的角度出发对城市商品住房市场价格形成机制进行分析研究。首先从城市商品住房价格形成的相关理论进行分析,明确了城市商品住房价格的概念及其特征,并描述了价格形成过程和对现有估价方法进行阐述。分析了城市商品住房价格形成机制的现状、存在的问题,以及产生这些问题的原因。在此基础上,依据供求理论、均衡价格理论,提出从开发商和消费者的角度构建模型求得均衡价格的解决思路。其次,运用典型的交易案例对城市商品住房价格形成进行研究和展示。分析了交易案例的相关信息和市场背景情况,对城市商品住房价格形成的主要影响因素进行分析,同时从市场交易参与者的开发商、消费者、政府和金融机构主体角度下分析了其价格形成的主体影响因素,提出基于重要影响因素前提下的估价策略。最后,从开发商和消费者角度对城市商品住房价格研究确定了交易的均衡价格,并证明了该模型的可行性和合理性。本文的研究对于完善城市商品住房价格形成的评估实现均衡价格具有较强的现实意义,丰富和发展了城市商品住房价格形成机制理论。但由于受到各种主客观因素影响,本文的研究还存在一些问题和漏洞,还需要今后进一步研究和拓展。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of reform and opening up and the rapid development of the economy, the urban commodity housing market has grown rapidly. At the same time, housing prices are also growing rapidly, and some cities have even increased at the rate of 2% per year. The problem of "house price rising too fast" has been puzzling the development of urban commodity housing market. The false high housing prices brought heavy economic pressure to residents, so that many residents "looking for a room sigh." In recent years, the state has introduced five, eight, and other regulatory policies, but various signs show that the prices of urban commodity housing are still rising, high, the bubble trend of the real estate market, serious to the entire economic and social instability factors. As the most direct indicator of the development of urban commodity housing market, the change of house price has become a highly concerned issue. The formation of urban commodity housing price is the result of market participation. The monopoly of the urban commodity housing market and the characteristics of its social and capital attributes determine the important position of its price expectation in the decision-making of the commodity housing market, and the expectation of the behavior subject is especially relevant to the operation of the urban commodity housing market. Most of the existing research is based on the interests of developers or consumers, so this paper tries to consider the interests of developers and consumers as a starting point, combined with a case study of the formation of expected equilibrium price. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the formation mechanism of urban commodity housing prices, to maintain the stable and reasonable development of housing prices, to solve the problems of the development of urban commodity housing, and to promote the healthy and harmonious development of real estate. On the basis of combing the literature at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and studies the price formation mechanism of urban commodity housing market from the perspective of expectation. Firstly, this paper analyzes the theory of the formation of urban commodity housing price, clarifies the concept and characteristics of urban commodity housing price, describes the process of price formation and expounds the existing valuation methods. This paper analyzes the present situation, existing problems and causes of the formation mechanism of urban commodity housing price. On this basis, according to the theory of supply and demand and the theory of equilibrium price, the author puts forward the solution of constructing the model from the angle of developer and consumer. Secondly, the paper studies and demonstrates the formation of urban commodity housing price with typical transaction cases. This paper analyzes the relevant information and market background of the transaction case, analyzes the main factors influencing the formation of the housing price of urban commodities, and analyzes the developers and consumers of the participants in the market transaction. From the perspective of government and financial institutions, this paper analyzes the main factors influencing the formation of price, and puts forward the valuation strategy based on the premise of important influence factors. Finally, the equilibrium price of the transaction is determined from the point of view of the developer and the consumer, and the feasibility and rationality of the model are proved. The research in this paper has a strong practical significance for perfecting the evaluation of the formation of urban commodity housing price and realizing the equilibrium price. It enriches and develops the theory of the formation mechanism of the urban commodity housing price. However, due to the influence of various subjective and objective factors, there are still some problems and loopholes in the study of this paper, which need further study and development in the future.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.5

【参考文献】