江西产业地产投资风险量化研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 08:52

【摘要】：随着国家宏观调控的持续深入，传统房地产市场步入调整转型期，住宅地产开发利润缩减，商业地产的激烈竞争都使得房地产企业转变发展方向。江西正处于城镇化进程和产业升级改造的关键阶段，相较于传统地产项目的一次性消费特质，产业地产的持续运作、成本低廉的产品属性，使其作为一种全新的地产投资类型在江西房地产市场中逐步兴起。但就目前江西产业地产投资环境来看，江西产业地产目前仍处于发展初期，在本文所界定的产业地产概念中，并未出现较为成功的产业地产项目案例，也暂未出现诸如盲目投资、定位趋同、服务类似、运营不善等发展问题，但江西产业地产仍需要科学规划、合理运作，借鉴成功经验，才能有效避免进入惯性发展误区。因此，为了合理的规避投资风险，减少不确定性因素对投资活动造成的影响，，使产业地产投资能够健康的、可持续的发展，对其投资风险进行精确的量化研究是必不可少的。本文旨在通过对江西产业地产投资风险进行量化分析，定性分析了江西产业地产投资环境现状，合理筛选江西产业地产的投资风险因素，建立投资风险评估指标体系，结合实例运用AHP-CIM模型对其投资风险因素进行量算，综合定性与定量的分析，对江西产业地产的可持续发展进行展望。文章最后提出应对江西产业地产投资风险的几点建议：一是深入把握政策动态，构建产业生态环境；二是充分考虑市场需求，规避市场供需风险；三是灵活选用融资方案，加强投资决策工作；四是科学选取开发定位，合理把握运营节奏。
[Abstract]:With the continuous deepening of national macro-control, the traditional real estate market has stepped into the period of adjustment and transformation, the profit of residential real estate development has been reduced, and the fierce competition of commercial real estate has made the real estate enterprises change their development direction. Jiangxi is at a critical stage in the process of urbanization and industrial upgrading. Compared with the one-off consumption characteristics of traditional real estate projects, the continuous operation of industrial real estate, and the low cost attributes of products, Make it as a new type of real estate investment in Jiangxi real estate market gradually rise. However, from the point of view of the present investment environment of Jiangxi industrial real estate, Jiangxi industrial real estate is still in the early stage of development. In the concept of industrial real estate defined in this paper, there is no successful case of industrial real estate project. Such as blind investment, orientation convergence, similar service, poor operation and other development problems, but Jiangxi industrial real estate still needs scientific planning, reasonable operation, reference to successful experience, in order to effectively avoid into the error of inertia development. Therefore, in order to avoid the investment risk reasonably, reduce the influence of the uncertain factors on the investment activity and make the industrial real estate investment develop healthily and sustainably, it is necessary to carry on the accurate quantification research to its investment risk. Through the quantitative analysis of the investment risk of Jiangxi industrial real estate, this paper qualitatively analyzes the present situation of Jiangxi industrial real estate investment environment, reasonably selects the investment risk factors of Jiangxi industrial real estate, and establishes the investment risk evaluation index system. Combined with the AHP-CIM model, the paper calculates the investment risk factors and makes a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis to forecast the sustainable development of Jiangxi industrial real estate. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the risk of Jiangxi industrial real estate investment: first, to deeply grasp the policy dynamics and construct the industrial ecological environment; second, to take full account of the market demand and avoid the risk of market supply and demand; third, to choose the financing scheme flexibly. Strengthen the investment decision-making work; fourth, scientifically select the development orientation, reasonable grasp the operation rhythm.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.27

【参考文献】