陕西省城市间住房价格的空间关联研究
发布时间：2018-08-15 17:00
【摘要】：近几年我国住房价格的持续升高和房地产调控越调越高的现象，显现出了政府宏观调控政策一刀切的弊端，这就要求各级政府需要更为全面的分析房地产市场的发展并制定有针对性和长期性的调控政策。 依据空间计量学理论，，各研究单元的经济地理行为之间一般都存在某种程度的空间关联作用，并且这种关联作用在相距较近的研究单元之间会表现的更为紧密，然而以往有关房价的研究或是从全国层面出发，研究的各城市相距较远；或是从微观层面出发研究某一地区房价，但研究往往关注城市本身房价特征而忽略了各城市间房价可能存在的空间关联作用。鉴于此，本文尝试以陕西省各城市的住房价格为研究对象，依据波纹效应理论和空间计量学理论，以住房价格和相关经济数据为基础，通过空间计量模型和相关统计学方法，分析陕西省省级范围内各城市间住房价格的空间关联作用，得出主要结论：（1）陕西省各城市住房价格持续上涨的普遍预期对住房价格上涨带来了显著的推升作用，而各城市城镇居民人均可支配收入预期增长对住房价格上涨预期的影响较大。（2）空间相邻特征在陕西省各城市住房价格空间关联效应中起到了主导作用，在此基础上，社会经济特征对其有显著的强化作用；在社会经济特征中，房地产收益率比人均可支配收入对住房价格空间关联的影响更显著。（3）各城市人均GDP、土地出让价格、年度竣工房屋面积是各城市自身住房价格的内在稳定影响因素，但各因素对不同城市住房价格的影响格局不同。（4）陕西省城市间住房价格出现了周边城市推升中心城市房价的不同一般的倒置传导关系。 进而，本文提出针对陕北-关中-陕南三大板块独特的地理位置和房价空间传导路径，应结合各因素的影响格局来协调中心城市与周边城市的住房价格控制。同时，把控好人均GDP、土地出让价格、年度竣工房屋面积等影响城市住房价格的内在影响因素，减少对于住房价格上涨的预期。本研究的结论及建议对市级政府制定地区房价调控细则、省级政府建立跨城市的住房市场干预协调机制都具有重要的参考意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous rise in housing prices and the increasing adjustment and control of real estate in our country have revealed the shortcomings of the government's macro-control policies across the board. This requires governments at all levels to analyze the development of the real estate market more comprehensively and formulate targeted and long-term regulation and control policies. According to the theory of spatial metrology, there is a certain degree of spatial correlation between the economic and geographical behaviors of each research unit, and this kind of correlation is more closely related to the closer research unit. However, previous studies on housing prices have been conducted either at the national level, where the cities studied are far apart, or at the micro level, where housing prices in a given region are studied. However, the study often pays attention to the characteristics of the housing price and ignores the possible spatial correlation between the cities. In view of this, this paper tries to take the housing price of the cities in Shaanxi Province as the research object, according to the corrugated effect theory and the spatial metrology theory, based on the housing price and the related economic data, through the spatial econometric model and the correlation statistical method. Based on the analysis of the spatial correlation of housing prices among cities in Shaanxi Province, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the common expectation that housing prices continue to rise in various cities in Shaanxi Province has brought about a significant upward impact on housing prices. However, the expected increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents has a great impact on the expectation of housing price increase. (2) Spatial adjacent characteristics play a leading role in the spatial correlation effect of housing prices in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, In the social and economic characteristics, the real estate return rate has a more significant impact on the spatial correlation of housing prices than the per capita disposable income. (3) per capita GDP, land transfer prices, The area of houses completed each year is the internal stable influence factor of each city's own housing price. However, the influence patterns of different factors on housing prices in different cities are different. (4) the housing prices between cities in Shaanxi Province appear different general inverted conduction relationship between the surrounding cities to push up the housing prices in central cities. Furthermore, this paper puts forward that the housing price control should be coordinated between the central city and the surrounding city according to the unique geographical location and the space conduction path of housing price in the three major plates of North Shaanxi-Guanzhong-South Shaanxi. At the same time, control the per capita GDP, land transfer price, annual completed housing area and other factors affecting urban housing prices, reduce the expectation of housing price rise. The conclusions and suggestions of this study are of great significance for the municipal government to formulate the regulation rules of regional housing prices and the provincial governments to establish the coordination mechanism of intercity housing market intervention.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23
本文编号：2184849
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous rise in housing prices and the increasing adjustment and control of real estate in our country have revealed the shortcomings of the government's macro-control policies across the board. This requires governments at all levels to analyze the development of the real estate market more comprehensively and formulate targeted and long-term regulation and control policies. According to the theory of spatial metrology, there is a certain degree of spatial correlation between the economic and geographical behaviors of each research unit, and this kind of correlation is more closely related to the closer research unit. However, previous studies on housing prices have been conducted either at the national level, where the cities studied are far apart, or at the micro level, where housing prices in a given region are studied. However, the study often pays attention to the characteristics of the housing price and ignores the possible spatial correlation between the cities. In view of this, this paper tries to take the housing price of the cities in Shaanxi Province as the research object, according to the corrugated effect theory and the spatial metrology theory, based on the housing price and the related economic data, through the spatial econometric model and the correlation statistical method. Based on the analysis of the spatial correlation of housing prices among cities in Shaanxi Province, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the common expectation that housing prices continue to rise in various cities in Shaanxi Province has brought about a significant upward impact on housing prices. However, the expected increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents has a great impact on the expectation of housing price increase. (2) Spatial adjacent characteristics play a leading role in the spatial correlation effect of housing prices in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, In the social and economic characteristics, the real estate return rate has a more significant impact on the spatial correlation of housing prices than the per capita disposable income. (3) per capita GDP, land transfer prices, The area of houses completed each year is the internal stable influence factor of each city's own housing price. However, the influence patterns of different factors on housing prices in different cities are different. (4) the housing prices between cities in Shaanxi Province appear different general inverted conduction relationship between the surrounding cities to push up the housing prices in central cities. Furthermore, this paper puts forward that the housing price control should be coordinated between the central city and the surrounding city according to the unique geographical location and the space conduction path of housing price in the three major plates of North Shaanxi-Guanzhong-South Shaanxi. At the same time, control the per capita GDP, land transfer price, annual completed housing area and other factors affecting urban housing prices, reduce the expectation of housing price rise. The conclusions and suggestions of this study are of great significance for the municipal government to formulate the regulation rules of regional housing prices and the provincial governments to establish the coordination mechanism of intercity housing market intervention.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23
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