我国货币流动性测度方法有效性研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 18:19

【摘要】：货币流动性过剩或不足均会造成经济发展水平的不稳定，分析货币流动状况，有利于国家采取合适的货币政策和财政政策进行宏观调控，保持经济市场的稳定性。因此，本文以2000年第一季度至2012年第二季度我国货币流动性现状为研究对象，确定货币流动性的测度方法，并检验其有效性作为主要研究目标。首先从货币流动性内涵界定出发，对货币流动性的基本经济理论进行梳理和总结。然后对现有货币流动性测度方法进行界定，并进行比较，提出货币流动性测度方法有效性标准。在此基础上，通过实证评价单指标和多指标下流动性测度模型的有效性，并提出有效的政策及建议。主要内容有以下几个方面：首先，将现有的货币流动性测度方法如IS-LM模型下的货币流动性测度方法、马歇尔K值系数方法、超额货币增长率等进行对比研究，，分析此类方法的优缺点，并进一步确定测度方法有效性的原则和标准；其次，通过实证模型对以单指标为基础的货币流动性和以多指标为基础的货币流动性分别进行测度和对比，分析各种方法在测度货币流动性问题上的有效性反应程度，最终得出基于多指标的主成分分析法和指标序优势决策法所得到的综合指数，能够很好的反映出我国货币流动性的状况；再次，文章基于灰色关联度模型分析多指标的货币流动性测度的有效性，实证发现两种方法均能较好的反映货币流动性，但从整体上看，指标序优势决策法有效反应参考指标的个数比主成分分析法有效反应参考指标的个数多，所以说前者的有效性要更好一些；最后，根据实证中所体现的问题提出相关政策建议，指出股票市场和房地产市场在波动中表现最为剧烈，是进行货币流动性管理保持货币流动性稳定的当务之急。特别提出的是，由于房地产市场既可以通过减小货币供应量和存贷差来缓解流动性过剩，又会通过影响外汇储备来加剧流动性过剩，针对房地产市场的特殊性，因此制定相关政策的同时需均衡考虑其两方面的因素。
[Abstract]:The excess or lack of monetary liquidity will cause instability of economic development level. Analyzing the situation of monetary flow is helpful for the country to adopt appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to carry out macro-control and maintain the stability of the economic market. Therefore, this paper takes the current situation of monetary liquidity in China from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2012 as the research object, determines the measure method of the monetary liquidity, and tests its validity as the main research objective. Firstly, the basic economic theory of monetary liquidity is sorted out and summarized from the definition of monetary liquidity connotation. Then the paper defines and compares the existing methods of money liquidity measurement, and puts forward the validity standard of monetary liquidity measurement method. On this basis, the validity of liquidity measurement model under single index and multiple index is evaluated empirically, and some effective policies and suggestions are put forward. The main contents are as follows: firstly, the existing methods of measuring monetary liquidity, such as the method of measuring monetary liquidity under IS-LM model, the method of Marshall K value coefficient, the rate of excess money growth and so on, are compared and studied. The advantages and disadvantages of such methods are analyzed, and the principles and criteria for the effectiveness of measurement methods are further determined. Secondly, Through the empirical model to measure and compare the monetary liquidity based on single index and multi-index respectively, this paper analyzes the degree of effectiveness of various methods in measuring the problem of monetary liquidity. Finally, the comprehensive index obtained by principal component analysis and index order advantage decision method based on multiple indexes can well reflect the situation of monetary liquidity in China. Based on the grey relational degree model, this paper analyzes the validity of the multi-index monetary liquidity measurement. It is found that both methods can reflect the monetary liquidity well, but on the whole, The number of effective reference indexes of index order superiority decision method is more than that of principal component analysis method, so the former is more effective. Finally, according to the problems reflected in the empirical analysis, some policy recommendations are put forward. It is pointed out that the stock market and the real estate market are the most violent in the fluctuation, which is the urgent task for the management of monetary liquidity to maintain the stability of monetary liquidity. In particular, because the real estate market can alleviate excess liquidity by reducing the money supply and the difference between deposits and loans, and it will aggravate the excess liquidity by influencing foreign exchange reserves, aiming at the particularity of the real estate market, Therefore, the formulation of relevant policies should be balanced at the same time to consider its two aspects of the factors.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2;F224

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