房地产宏观调控政策对大型城市住房价格影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-26 09:06

【摘要】：“十二五规划”期间正值我国经济转型发展的关键时期,房地产市场已经成为一个重要供需市场,广大人民群众对住房具有刚性需求。然而,房地产市场的高房价趋势虽有所缓解,但投机性购房、房价炒作、限购等因素成为房价“高温”不减的重要因素。我国政府根本目标是为广大人民群众谋福祉,而仅仅靠市场调节的房地产供需结构已经完全无法适应当前的社会经济发展态势,因此需要政府作为外部力量调节房地产市场的供需价格及住房供应量,从而保障房地产市场的持续健康发展。本文选取了全国15个代表性大型城市作为全国范围内住房价格研究的参考指标,着重分析了住房市场价格受国家宏观政策影响的作用机制。从全文来看,首先介绍了研究主题的背景来源,指出研究目标和意义,并对国内外学者关于政策及住房价格方面的研究动态、研究成果进行了综述。然后,集中论述了房地产宏观调控政策的理论基础,包括房地产土地供应理论、房地产市场理论,以及政策学理论。此外,针对研究对象与具体政策指标进行了概念界定。接下来的两章主要进行理论分析,分别对土地政策和货币政策两方面进行理论阐述,着重分析了常态性的宏观调控政策对城市住房市场价格的作用机制,土地政策方面从土地供给量、土地价格、土地供给结构及土地供给方式五个角度进行分析;货币政策主要分析了利率和货币供应量对住房价格的影响。随后,运用定量分析方法,使用Spss19.0工具实证研究了宏观调控政策对城市住房市场价格的影响。依据土地政策指标和货币政策指标,研究政策与住房市场价格之间的相关关系和动态影响。最后,对实证检验结果进行总结性阐述,并根据理论分析及实证研究的结论,提出可行性政策建议。本文通过理论分析和实证分析,结合房地产市场理论和政策理论,得出研究结论:住房市场价格受宏观政策影响较为显著,其中,土地政策和货币政策中各项子因素项对住房市场价格的调控作用各有不同。土地供应量与住房市场价格之间存在负相关关系,土地价格与住房市场价格之间存在正相关关系;利率水平和广义货币供应量与住房价格呈现同向走势,二者与住房市场价格均存在正相关关系。
[Abstract]:During the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the real estate market has become an important supply and demand market, and the people have rigid demand for housing. However, although the trend of high house prices in the real estate market has been alleviated, the speculative purchase, speculation and restriction of purchase prices have become important factors for the "high temperature" of house prices. The fundamental goal of our government is to seek for the well-being of the broad masses of the people, but the supply and demand structure of real estate, which is only regulated by the market, has completely failed to adapt to the current situation of social and economic development. Therefore, it is necessary for the government as an external force to regulate the supply and demand price and housing supply of the real estate market, so as to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market. This paper selects 15 representative large cities as the reference index for the study of housing price in the whole country, and analyzes the mechanism of the housing market price influenced by the national macro policy. From the point of view of the full text, this paper first introduces the background source of the research topic, points out the research goal and significance, and summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars' research trends on policy and housing prices, as well as the research results. Then, it focuses on the theoretical basis of real estate macro-control policy, including real estate land supply theory, real estate market theory, and policy theory. In addition, the research object and specific policy indicators are defined. The next two chapters mainly analyze the theory of land policy and monetary policy, focusing on the normal macro-control policy on the urban housing market price mechanism. Land policy is analyzed from five aspects: land supply quantity, land price, land supply structure and land supply mode, and monetary policy mainly analyzes the influence of interest rate and money supply on housing price. Then, using quantitative analysis method and Spss19.0 tool, this paper empirically studies the impact of macro-control policies on urban housing market prices. According to land policy index and monetary policy index, this paper studies the correlation and dynamic influence between policy and housing market price. Finally, the empirical test results are summarized, and according to the theoretical analysis and empirical research conclusions, the feasibility policy recommendations are put forward. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, combined with real estate market theory and policy theory, this paper draws a conclusion: housing market prices are significantly affected by macro policies, among which, Land policy and monetary policy have different effects on housing market price. There is a negative correlation between land supply and housing market price, a positive correlation between land price and housing market price, and the same trend between interest rate level and generalized money supply and housing price. Both have positive correlation with housing market price.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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