中国货币需求函数及其货币缺口问题分析
发布时间：2018-09-01 13:56
【摘要】：近十多年以来,由于经济全球化及金融创新步伐的加快,货币需求的影响因素也越来越复杂。随着中国经济不断地发展,股票市场、房地产市场逐渐成为居民重要的投资市场；中国产业结构不断地调整,第三产业所占比例的不断提高;热钱不断地涌入,通货膨胀压力不断加大等,究竟哪些因素对我国货币需求真正有着影响,其影响是否显著且稳定。因此,对影响货币需求的相关因素进行深入剖析,探讨符合中国实际情况的货币需求函数,并在此基础上进行货币缺口的测算,对于了解我国货币需求,促进货币供求平衡,制定能够推动我国经济持续平稳发展的货币政策具有相当重要的意义。 本文利用1998-2012年的经济数据构建了中国货币需求函数的协整模型,根据构建的函数模型,深入分析了1998年以来影响中国货币需求的主要因素及其内在原因。并且,在货币需求函数模型的基础上,对货币缺口进行实证检验,分析了货币缺口形成的原因及其波动情况。最后,针对中国当前的货币供求缺口问题及货币政策有效性提出相应的对策和建议。 本文第一部分是导论,同时对目前有关货币需求问题的文献进行梳理。第二部分使用层次递归系统分析的方法,通过货币需求影响因素的分析和取舍,比较和筛选出对中国货币需求具有较大影响的主要变量,并建立符合中国特征的货币需求函数。第三部分是通过稳定性检验(ADF检验)、协整等分析,对模型的稳定性进行分析,并由此计算我国的货币需求缺口,分析了其形成原因及波动情况,最后对货币政策的有效性问题进行描述和分析。第四部分是结论并展开相关的政策讨论。 本文最终得出的结论是： 1.实际GDP、金融机构贷款总额、通货膨胀率以及金融创新对货币需求有长期显著影响,货币需求函数方程的拟合优度较高,自变量的回归系数均通过显著检验。 2.从短期而言,货币缺口有较大的波动；但从长期动态的角度而言,货币缺口值围绕着0上下波动,货币稳定性较强,货币政策有效。
[Abstract]:In recent ten years, due to economic globalization and the acceleration of financial innovation, the influence factors of monetary demand are becoming more and more complex. With the continuous development of China's economy, the stock market, the real estate market has gradually become an important investment market for residents; China's industrial structure has been constantly adjusted, the proportion of the tertiary industry has been increasing, and hot money is constantly pouring in. Inflation pressure is increasing and so on, which factors have a real impact on China's monetary demand, and whether the impact is significant and stable. Therefore, the paper deeply analyzes the relevant factors that affect the monetary demand, discusses the money demand function which accords with the actual situation of China, and calculates the monetary gap on the basis of which, it can promote the balance of the money supply and demand to understand the monetary demand of our country, and promote the balance of the money supply and demand. It is of great significance to formulate the monetary policy which can promote the sustained and stable development of our economy. Based on the economic data from 1998 to 2012, this paper constructs a cointegration model of Chinese monetary demand function. According to the constructed function model, this paper deeply analyzes the main factors affecting China's monetary demand since 1998 and its internal reasons. On the basis of the money demand function model, the paper makes an empirical test on the money gap, and analyzes the reasons for the formation of the money gap and its fluctuation. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the gap between the supply and demand of money and the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. The first part of this paper is an introduction, at the same time the current literature on monetary demand is combed. In the second part, by using the method of hierarchical recursive system analysis, the main variables which have great influence on Chinese monetary demand are compared and screened through the analysis and selection of the influencing factors of money demand, and the money demand function that conforms to the characteristics of China is established. The third part is to analyze the stability of the model through the stability test (ADF test), cointegration and so on, and then calculate the gap of our country's money demand, and analyze its formation reason and fluctuation. Finally, the effectiveness of monetary policy is described and analyzed. The fourth part is the conclusion and the related policy discussion. The conclusion of this paper is: 1. The actual GDP, financial institutions loan amount, inflation rate and financial innovation have a long-term significant impact on the demand for money, the money demand function equation has a higher degree of goodness of fit, and the regression coefficient of independent variables has passed a significant test. 2. In the short term, the currency gap fluctuates greatly, but from the long-term dynamic point of view, the value of the gap fluctuates around 0, the monetary stability is strong, and the monetary policy is effective.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2
本文编号：2217413
[Abstract]:In recent ten years, due to economic globalization and the acceleration of financial innovation, the influence factors of monetary demand are becoming more and more complex. With the continuous development of China's economy, the stock market, the real estate market has gradually become an important investment market for residents; China's industrial structure has been constantly adjusted, the proportion of the tertiary industry has been increasing, and hot money is constantly pouring in. Inflation pressure is increasing and so on, which factors have a real impact on China's monetary demand, and whether the impact is significant and stable. Therefore, the paper deeply analyzes the relevant factors that affect the monetary demand, discusses the money demand function which accords with the actual situation of China, and calculates the monetary gap on the basis of which, it can promote the balance of the money supply and demand to understand the monetary demand of our country, and promote the balance of the money supply and demand. It is of great significance to formulate the monetary policy which can promote the sustained and stable development of our economy. Based on the economic data from 1998 to 2012, this paper constructs a cointegration model of Chinese monetary demand function. According to the constructed function model, this paper deeply analyzes the main factors affecting China's monetary demand since 1998 and its internal reasons. On the basis of the money demand function model, the paper makes an empirical test on the money gap, and analyzes the reasons for the formation of the money gap and its fluctuation. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the gap between the supply and demand of money and the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. The first part of this paper is an introduction, at the same time the current literature on monetary demand is combed. In the second part, by using the method of hierarchical recursive system analysis, the main variables which have great influence on Chinese monetary demand are compared and screened through the analysis and selection of the influencing factors of money demand, and the money demand function that conforms to the characteristics of China is established. The third part is to analyze the stability of the model through the stability test (ADF test), cointegration and so on, and then calculate the gap of our country's money demand, and analyze its formation reason and fluctuation. Finally, the effectiveness of monetary policy is described and analyzed. The fourth part is the conclusion and the related policy discussion. The conclusion of this paper is: 1. The actual GDP, financial institutions loan amount, inflation rate and financial innovation have a long-term significant impact on the demand for money, the money demand function equation has a higher degree of goodness of fit, and the regression coefficient of independent variables has passed a significant test. 2. In the short term, the currency gap fluctuates greatly, but from the long-term dynamic point of view, the value of the gap fluctuates around 0, the monetary stability is strong, and the monetary policy is effective.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2
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