上海住房价格指数完善研究
发布时间：2018-09-12 11:28
【摘要】：在中国房地产的快速发展过程中,房地产行业的风险问题日益突出。用科学的方法反映房地产价格的变化,从而提供给市场主体正确的引导信息已变得十分迫切。住房价格指数是反映不同时期住房市场价格水平的变化趋势和程度的相对数量指标,即只反映由市场供求和货币购买力变化引起的价格变化,而剔除由房地产特征等因素改变而引起的价格变化。上海目前公布的住房价格指数主要是在分层抽样情况下采用平均值或者加权平均值的方法编制的。单纯采用平均值的方法编制房产价格指数忽略了房产属性特征的变化对价格指数的影响,笔者通过分析认为使用结合特征价格模型,采用典型房比较法作为上海住房价格指数的计算方法。本文在分析与探讨了制定住房指数编制需要解决的问题、发达国家关于住房指数理论的研究成果、我国目前住房指数的现状及其特点的基础上,着重探讨了现今国际上几种广泛应用的指数编制方法的优点和局限性。通过借鉴国外比较完善的指数编制方法,分析影响上海住房市场价格的主要特征因素,结合上海这个经济繁荣,人口数量庞大,房地产业蓬勃发展的国际化大城市的特点,提出了一种改进的住房价格指数方案,作为对于现有上海住房指数系统的补充和完善。并以上海市普通住宅的存量房价格指数的编制为例制定了具体的完善上海住房价格指数系统的方案,为预测上海住房价格走势提供了比较科学的依据。
[Abstract]:In the process of rapid development of real estate in China, the risk problem of real estate industry is increasingly prominent. It is very urgent to reflect the change of real estate price by scientific method, so as to provide the correct guiding information to the main body of the market. The housing price index is a relative quantitative indicator that reflects the trend and extent of changes in the price level of the housing market over different periods, that is, only the price changes caused by changes in the market supply and demand and the purchasing power of money. Excluding the real estate characteristics and other factors caused by the price changes. The housing price index currently published in Shanghai is mainly compiled by means of average or weighted average in the case of stratified sampling. Using the method of average value to compile the real estate price index ignores the influence of the change of the property characteristics on the price index. The author thinks that the combined feature price model is used through the analysis. The typical housing comparison method is used as the calculation method of Shanghai housing price index. This paper analyzes and discusses the problems to be solved in the formulation of housing index, the research results of developed countries on housing index theory, the present situation and characteristics of housing index in China. The advantages and limitations of several widely used index compilation methods in the world are emphatically discussed. By referring to the relatively perfect index compilation method of foreign countries, this paper analyzes the main characteristic factors that affect the price of housing market in Shanghai, and combines the characteristics of Shanghai, which is an international city with a prosperous economy, a large population and a booming real estate industry. An improved housing price index scheme is proposed as a supplement to the existing housing index system in Shanghai. Taking the compilation of stock house price index of ordinary residential buildings in Shanghai as an example, a concrete scheme of perfecting Shanghai housing price index system is formulated, which provides a scientific basis for forecasting the trend of housing price in Shanghai.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
[Abstract]:In the process of rapid development of real estate in China, the risk problem of real estate industry is increasingly prominent. It is very urgent to reflect the change of real estate price by scientific method, so as to provide the correct guiding information to the main body of the market. The housing price index is a relative quantitative indicator that reflects the trend and extent of changes in the price level of the housing market over different periods, that is, only the price changes caused by changes in the market supply and demand and the purchasing power of money. Excluding the real estate characteristics and other factors caused by the price changes. The housing price index currently published in Shanghai is mainly compiled by means of average or weighted average in the case of stratified sampling. Using the method of average value to compile the real estate price index ignores the influence of the change of the property characteristics on the price index. The author thinks that the combined feature price model is used through the analysis. The typical housing comparison method is used as the calculation method of Shanghai housing price index. This paper analyzes and discusses the problems to be solved in the formulation of housing index, the research results of developed countries on housing index theory, the present situation and characteristics of housing index in China. The advantages and limitations of several widely used index compilation methods in the world are emphatically discussed. By referring to the relatively perfect index compilation method of foreign countries, this paper analyzes the main characteristic factors that affect the price of housing market in Shanghai, and combines the characteristics of Shanghai, which is an international city with a prosperous economy, a large population and a booming real estate industry. An improved housing price index scheme is proposed as a supplement to the existing housing index system in Shanghai. Taking the compilation of stock house price index of ordinary residential buildings in Shanghai as an example, a concrete scheme of perfecting Shanghai housing price index system is formulated, which provides a scientific basis for forecasting the trend of housing price in Shanghai.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
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