基于Z模型对我国房地产上市公司财务危机预警实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-18 14:16
【摘要】：经过几十年的发展，我国房地产业发展迅速，并带动了我国数十个产业的发展，逐渐成为我国国民经济的支柱产业，对于推动国民经济的快速增长和居民的居住条件的改善发挥了重要作用。虽然房地产业作为国民经济的支柱产业迅速发展，但由于其本身具有资金密集型、关联度高、周转周期长、高风险以及高投资等特点，使得投资房地产具有较大的投资风险。再加上房地产开发所需资金主要来源于银行贷款、预售销售款、股权融资以及其他的商业贷款，使得其本身的财务风险就较大。较高的资产负债率和借款费用，要求企业提高偿债能力，这在一定程度上制约企业的经营活动，从而影响其盈利能力，更为严重的可能导致企业资金链断裂，出现入不敷出的风险。因此，采取一定的方法分析房地产业的财务风险、探究其形成风险的源头具有重要的现实和理论意义。 本文在总结国内外众多学者对房地产业财务风险研究成果的基础上，选择了在实践上广泛使用的Z模型进行研究。由于Z模型使用的财务指标主要是静态的以及基于权责发生制原则的，所以本文在研究模型上增加了两个有关现金流的分析指标，，从而能更加真实的衡量企业的财务风险。本文研究的对象主要为深、沪交易所上市的118家A股房地产企业，并以其2009年到2011年间公开的财务报表数据为计算依据，利用EXCEL分析软件进行实证研究。 实证结果表明，Altman的Z模型在预测我国房地产企业的财务风险时并不完全适用，Z模型的临界值过高，这与其他学者研究的结论一致。本文通过修改Z模型的临界值，并以新的临界值对2009年和2010年的数据进行回代检验以及对2011年数据检验，证明新的临界值更具精确性，从而得出新的适用我国房地产上市公司的Z模型临界值。结合新的Z值分析，当公司处于不同的Z值区域时，分析公司存在的问题以及应采取的解决方法。并结合现金盈利质量率和现金增值质量率两个财务指标检验房地产上市公司的财务风险，得出的结论更加精确，同时也预测出处于正常状态的房地产上市公司现金盈利质量率和现金增值质量率两个财务指标的区间范围。
[Abstract]:After decades of development, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly, and led the development of dozens of industries in our country, gradually becoming the pillar industry of our national economy. It plays an important role in promoting the rapid growth of national economy and improving the living conditions of residents. Although the real estate industry is developing rapidly as the pillar industry of the national economy, because of its capital intensive, high correlation degree, long turnover period, high risk and high investment, the investment of real estate industry has great investment risk. In addition, the capital needed for real estate development mainly comes from bank loans, pre-sale sales, equity financing and other commercial loans, which makes its own financial risk greater. Higher asset-liability ratio and borrowing cost require enterprises to improve their ability to repay debt, which to a certain extent restricts the business activities of enterprises, thus affecting their profitability, which may lead to the breakage of the enterprise's capital chain. There is a risk of living beyond your means. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to analyze the financial risk of real estate industry and explore the source of its formation risk. On the basis of summarizing the research achievements of many domestic and foreign scholars on financial risk of real estate industry, this paper chooses Z model, which is widely used in practice. Because the financial indexes used in Z model are mainly static and based on accrual basis, this paper adds two analysis indexes about cash flow in the research model, so that the financial risk of enterprises can be measured more truthfully. The research object of this paper is mainly deep, 118 A-share real estate companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange, and based on the financial statement data published from 2009 to 2011, the empirical research is carried out by using EXCEL analysis software. The empirical results show that Altman's Z model is not completely suitable for predicting the financial risk of real estate enterprises in China. The critical value of Z model is too high, which is consistent with the conclusion of other scholars. In this paper, by modifying the critical value of Z model, and using the new critical value to test the data of 2009 and 2010 and the data of 2011, it is proved that the new critical value is more accurate. Thus, a new Z model critical value for real estate listed companies in China is obtained. Combined with the new Z value analysis, when the company is in different Z value region, the problems existing in the company and the solutions should be adopted are analyzed. Combined with the cash profit quality rate and the cash appreciation quality rate, the financial risk of the listed real estate companies is tested, and the conclusion is more accurate. At the same time, the range of the two financial indexes of cash profit quality rate and cash appreciation quality rate of real estate listed companies in normal state is predicted.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4
[Abstract]:After decades of development, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly, and led the development of dozens of industries in our country, gradually becoming the pillar industry of our national economy. It plays an important role in promoting the rapid growth of national economy and improving the living conditions of residents. Although the real estate industry is developing rapidly as the pillar industry of the national economy, because of its capital intensive, high correlation degree, long turnover period, high risk and high investment, the investment of real estate industry has great investment risk. In addition, the capital needed for real estate development mainly comes from bank loans, pre-sale sales, equity financing and other commercial loans, which makes its own financial risk greater. Higher asset-liability ratio and borrowing cost require enterprises to improve their ability to repay debt, which to a certain extent restricts the business activities of enterprises, thus affecting their profitability, which may lead to the breakage of the enterprise's capital chain. There is a risk of living beyond your means. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to analyze the financial risk of real estate industry and explore the source of its formation risk. On the basis of summarizing the research achievements of many domestic and foreign scholars on financial risk of real estate industry, this paper chooses Z model, which is widely used in practice. Because the financial indexes used in Z model are mainly static and based on accrual basis, this paper adds two analysis indexes about cash flow in the research model, so that the financial risk of enterprises can be measured more truthfully. The research object of this paper is mainly deep, 118 A-share real estate companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange, and based on the financial statement data published from 2009 to 2011, the empirical research is carried out by using EXCEL analysis software. The empirical results show that Altman's Z model is not completely suitable for predicting the financial risk of real estate enterprises in China. The critical value of Z model is too high, which is consistent with the conclusion of other scholars. In this paper, by modifying the critical value of Z model, and using the new critical value to test the data of 2009 and 2010 and the data of 2011, it is proved that the new critical value is more accurate. Thus, a new Z model critical value for real estate listed companies in China is obtained. Combined with the new Z value analysis, when the company is in different Z value region, the problems existing in the company and the solutions should be adopted are analyzed. Combined with the cash profit quality rate and the cash appreciation quality rate, the financial risk of the listed real estate companies is tested, and the conclusion is more accurate. At the same time, the range of the two financial indexes of cash profit quality rate and cash appreciation quality rate of real estate listed companies in normal state is predicted.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 包晓岚;;上市公司财务危机预警“Z”值区域研究与分析[J];财会通讯(学术版);2006年05期
2 刘红霞,韩Z
本文编号：2248169
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/fangdichanjingjilunwen/2248169.html
