基于系统动力学的房地产市场风险预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-09-19 19:41

【摘要】：自1998年政府取消福利分房制度以来,房子开始作为一种商品全面走向市场,住宅的商品化之路便备受关注。特别是近年来随着我国房地产市场的持续快速发展,政府等相关部门为了应对房地产市场量价齐升的局面,陆续出台了一系列旨在控制房价过快上涨、抑制房地产市场投资过热的宏观调控措施。但市场反应却在一定程度上偏离了政府的预期调控目标,持续升温的房地产市场引起了政府相关部门对房地产市场过快发展会危害国民经济平稳运行与社会和谐稳定的警觉和担忧。因此,如何根据房地产市场的内部运行机制及发展规律,制定科学合理切实可行的宏观调控政策,引导房地产市场回归理性,满足普通消费者的基本住房需求就成为了人们广泛关注的热点问题之一。本文主要将系统动力学的分析方法应用于房地产市场风险预警系统的研究。首先,从构成房地产市场的内外部因素出发,对房地产市场的内部运行机制及发展规律进行了详细分析,探讨了房地产商品价格的影响因素及其形成机理。接着构建了基于系统动力学的房地产市场的系统仿真模型,并以济南市为例进行了模拟仿真。然后根据搜集的历年数据及系统动力学模型仿真预测的结果,选取风险预警指标,构建了房地产市场风险预警的指标体系,并采用信号分析法构建了房地产市场的风险综合指数,提出了风险临界值的测度标准和不同级别警情的应对措施。最后结合模型敏感性测试的结果及济南市房地产市场的实际状况选取变量,进行了单变量的单一政策试验及多变量的综合政策仿真试验,通过不同政策试验的结果的对比分析,提出了济南市房地产市场调控的政策建议和具体措施。本文主要创新点有以下几方面:1、界定了房地产市场系统的边界,定义了系统的主要参与要素,提出了由供求、成本、调控和社会四个子系统组成的房地产市场系统基本结构体系,构建了基于系统动力学的房地产系统仿真模型并进行了模拟仿真,为房地产市场的系统研究提供了有力的理论支持。2、构建了房地产市场风险预警的指标体系和房地产市场风险综合指数,提出了各级风险临界值的测度标准和不同级别警情的应对措施,为房地产市场风险的监测和调控提供了科学的标准和参考依据。3、指出了对房地产系统影响巨大且适合作为国家政策调控对象的关键变量,进行了单变量单一政策试验与多变量综合政策试验,提出了房地产市场的政策调控措施,为房地产市场的调控提供了切实可行的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the government abolished the welfare housing allocation system in 1998, the house began to enter the market as a kind of commodity in an all-round way. In particular, with the sustained and rapid development of the real estate market in China in recent years, in order to cope with the rising volume and price of the real estate market, the government and other relevant departments have successively introduced a series of measures aimed at controlling the excessive rise in house prices. The macro-control measures to curb the overheating of investment in the real estate market. However, the market response deviates from the government's target of regulation and control to a certain extent. The rising real estate market has aroused the alarm and concern of the relevant government departments that the rapid development of the real estate market will endanger the smooth operation of the national economy and social harmony and stability. Therefore, according to the internal operating mechanism and development law of the real estate market, how to formulate scientific, reasonable and feasible macro-control policies to guide the real estate market to return to rationality, To meet the basic housing needs of ordinary consumers has become one of the hot issues widely concerned. This paper mainly applies the analysis method of system dynamics to the research of real estate market risk early warning system. First of all, starting from the internal and external factors that constitute the real estate market, this paper analyzes in detail the internal operating mechanism and the development law of the real estate market, and probes into the influencing factors and the forming mechanism of the real estate commodity price. Then, the system simulation model of real estate market based on system dynamics is constructed. Then according to the collected data and the simulation results of system dynamics model, the risk early warning index is selected, and the index system of real estate market risk early warning is constructed. The risk index of real estate market is constructed by means of signal analysis, and the measure standard of critical value of risk and the countermeasures of different levels of warning are put forward. Finally, combining the results of model sensitivity test and the actual situation of real estate market in Jinan, the single policy test with single variable and the comprehensive policy simulation experiment with multiple variables are carried out, and the results of different policy tests are compared and analyzed. This paper puts forward the policy suggestions and concrete measures of real estate market regulation in Jinan. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: 1, defining the boundary of the real estate market system, defining the main participating elements of the system, putting forward by the supply and demand, the cost, The basic structure system of real estate market system, which is composed of four subsystems of regulation and control and society, is constructed and simulated based on the simulation model of real estate system based on system dynamics. It provides a powerful theoretical support for the systematic study of real estate market, and constructs the index system of real estate market risk early warning and the real estate market risk comprehensive index. The paper puts forward the measurement standard of the critical value of risk at all levels and the countermeasures of different levels of alarm. It provides a scientific standard and reference basis for the monitoring and control of real estate market risks, and points out the key variables that have a great impact on the real estate system and are suitable for national policy regulation. The univariate single policy test and multivariable comprehensive policy test are carried out, and the policy control measures of real estate market are put forward, which provide practical suggestions for real estate market regulation and control.
【学位授予单位】：济南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：N941.3;F299.23

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