基于FCF的房地产上市公司财务预警模型研究
发布时间：2018-10-08 20:50
【摘要】：长期以来,房地产上市公司融资渠道单一,对银行的依赖性较强,资产负债率居高不下。2010以来,国家加大了对房地产的调控,使得房地产公司生存环境发生较大变化,导致其发生财务危机的可能性增大。因此,通过建立房地产行业的财务预警模型,以期及早发现并规避房地产上市公司可能发生的财务危机。 基于FCF的房地产上市公司财务预警模型的研究主要从以下方面展开,在对自由现金流量FCF有关理论研究的基础上,指出自由现金流量FCF在财务预警模型研究中存在的优势,即FCF是一个综合指标,反映出了企业的持续经营能力和盈利能力；提出了在实际研究运用中计算公司自由现金流量FCF的方法；对房地产上市公司财务危机进行论述,描述了房地产上市公司财务危机发生的根本原因,指出了基于自由现金流量FCF的特别指标,分析了国家宏观调控政策对房地产上市公司自由现金流量FCF的影响；通过设立有关假设,对有关财务指标和非财务指标进行显著性和相关性检验,选取了通过显著性较强和不具有高度相关性的6个财务指标和1个非财务指标进入财务预警模型,并将房地产上市公司的数据通过SPSS软件进行logistic回归,建立基于自由现金流量FCF的房地产上市公司的财务预警模型；财务预警模型进行检验,运用SPSS软件对建立的财务预警模型相关系数进行综合检验和模型拟合优度的检验,并将计算出的40个检验样本的有关财务数据和搜集到的非财务数据代入预警模型进行计算对模型的实际预测效果进行检验；提出房地产上市公司应该从建立健全财务预警机制、强化自由现金流量FCF的监控和改善财务管理模式三个方面提高应对财务危机的能力。 研究表明,房地产上市公司财务危机发生的根本原因在于缺乏核心竞争力和完善的公司治理制度；宏观政策对房地产上市公司的FCF有显著影响,以流动比率、负债比率、存货周转率、FCF、带息负债比和股权集中度为解释变量构建的财务预警模型在统计学上有良好的拟合度,实际检验效果也表明该财务预警模型能取得比较好的预警效果；房地产上市公司应从加强对FCF的监控等方面加强对财务风险的预测。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the financing channel of listed real estate companies is single, the dependence on banks is relatively strong, and the ratio of assets and liabilities remains high. Since 2010, the state has increased its regulation on real estate, which has made the living environment of real estate companies change greatly. It is more likely to cause a financial crisis. Therefore, by establishing the financial early warning model of real estate industry, we hope to detect and avoid the financial crisis that may occur in real estate listed companies as soon as possible. The research on the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on FCF is mainly carried out from the following aspects. On the basis of the theoretical research on free cash flow (FCF), this paper points out the advantages of free cash flow (FCF) in the research of financial early-warning model. That is, FCF is a comprehensive index, which reflects the continuing management ability and profitability of the enterprise, puts forward the method of calculating the free cash flow FCF of the company in the actual research and application, and discusses the financial crisis of the listed real estate company. This paper describes the fundamental causes of the financial crisis of real estate listed companies, points out the special indicators based on free cash flow (FCF), and analyzes the influence of national macro-control policies on the free cash flow FCF of real estate listed companies. By setting up the relevant assumptions and testing the significance and correlation of the relevant financial indicators and non-financial indicators, six financial indicators and one non-financial index with strong significance and no high correlation are selected to enter the financial early warning model. The data of real estate listed companies are regressed by logistic through SPSS software, and the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on free cash flow FCF is established, and the financial early-warning model is tested. By using SPSS software, the correlation coefficient of the established financial early warning model is tested synthetically and the goodness of fit of the model is tested. The financial data of 40 test samples and the collected non-financial data are added to the early-warning model to test the actual forecasting effect of the model, and the real estate listed companies should establish and improve the financial early-warning mechanism. Strengthen the monitoring of free cash flow FCF and improve the financial management mode to improve the ability to deal with financial crisis. The research shows that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis of listed real estate companies lies in the lack of core competitiveness and perfect corporate governance system, and the macro policy has a significant impact on the FCF of listed real estate companies, with the current ratio and debt ratio. The financial early-warning model with inventory turnover ratio FCFF ratio with interest and debt ratio and equity concentration as explanatory variable has good statistical fit. The actual test results also show that the financial early-warning model can achieve better early warning effect. Real estate listed companies should strengthen the financial risk prediction from the aspects of strengthening the monitoring of FCF.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4
本文编号：2258217
[Abstract]:For a long time, the financing channel of listed real estate companies is single, the dependence on banks is relatively strong, and the ratio of assets and liabilities remains high. Since 2010, the state has increased its regulation on real estate, which has made the living environment of real estate companies change greatly. It is more likely to cause a financial crisis. Therefore, by establishing the financial early warning model of real estate industry, we hope to detect and avoid the financial crisis that may occur in real estate listed companies as soon as possible. The research on the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on FCF is mainly carried out from the following aspects. On the basis of the theoretical research on free cash flow (FCF), this paper points out the advantages of free cash flow (FCF) in the research of financial early-warning model. That is, FCF is a comprehensive index, which reflects the continuing management ability and profitability of the enterprise, puts forward the method of calculating the free cash flow FCF of the company in the actual research and application, and discusses the financial crisis of the listed real estate company. This paper describes the fundamental causes of the financial crisis of real estate listed companies, points out the special indicators based on free cash flow (FCF), and analyzes the influence of national macro-control policies on the free cash flow FCF of real estate listed companies. By setting up the relevant assumptions and testing the significance and correlation of the relevant financial indicators and non-financial indicators, six financial indicators and one non-financial index with strong significance and no high correlation are selected to enter the financial early warning model. The data of real estate listed companies are regressed by logistic through SPSS software, and the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on free cash flow FCF is established, and the financial early-warning model is tested. By using SPSS software, the correlation coefficient of the established financial early warning model is tested synthetically and the goodness of fit of the model is tested. The financial data of 40 test samples and the collected non-financial data are added to the early-warning model to test the actual forecasting effect of the model, and the real estate listed companies should establish and improve the financial early-warning mechanism. Strengthen the monitoring of free cash flow FCF and improve the financial management mode to improve the ability to deal with financial crisis. The research shows that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis of listed real estate companies lies in the lack of core competitiveness and perfect corporate governance system, and the macro policy has a significant impact on the FCF of listed real estate companies, with the current ratio and debt ratio. The financial early-warning model with inventory turnover ratio FCFF ratio with interest and debt ratio and equity concentration as explanatory variable has good statistical fit. The actual test results also show that the financial early-warning model can achieve better early warning effect. Real estate listed companies should strengthen the financial risk prediction from the aspects of strengthening the monitoring of FCF.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4
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