哈尔滨市房地产市场预警系统研究
发布时间：2018-10-09 16:14
【摘要】：随着我国国民经济的发展,房地产业也在高速的发展。但是,目前我国的房地产市场发展还并不完善,相应管理机制的形成也并不成熟。行业内部存在很多缺陷,导致房地产市场存在隐性风险。政府目前也只能依据市场现状出台相应政策进行宏观调控,这样亡羊补牢的做法也只能治标,不能从根本上保证房地产业健康稳定的发展。 本文以宏观经济预警理论为依据,结合房地产经济周期波动理论,以综合模拟法为设计主线,构建了哈尔滨市房地产预警系统。从房地产业同国民经济协调关系、房地产市场供求协调关系及房地产业内部协调关系三大方面出发,建立了房地产预警指标体系,通过聚类分析对指标进行优选,并在前人研究的基础上,对主成分分析进行优化,得出预警指数,加入马尔可夫预测及3σ方法,建立模型对哈尔滨市房地产市场进行了预测并预警。实证分析的结果显示,从2012年至今,哈尔滨市房地产出现了偏冷的状态,需结合市场与政府调控双向机制保持哈尔滨市房地产市场健康、有序的发展。 实证分析说明,本文建立的房地产预警系统可以对城市的房地产发展进行评价,也可以及时准确的发出预报和警报,对房地产市场的预警具有较大的参考价值和现实意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of our national economy, the real estate industry is also developing at a high speed. However, China's real estate market development is not perfect, the formation of the corresponding management mechanism is not mature. There are many defects in the industry, leading to hidden risks in the real estate market. At present, the government can only issue the corresponding policies according to the current market situation to carry out macro-control, so the practice of repairing the losses can only cure the symptoms, and can not guarantee the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry fundamentally. Based on the theory of macro-economic early warning and the theory of real estate economic cycle fluctuation, this paper constructs the real estate early warning system of Harbin with the comprehensive simulation method as the main design thread. Based on the coordination relationship between real estate industry and national economy, the coordination relationship between supply and demand in real estate market and the coordination relationship within real estate industry, the index system of real estate early warning is established, and the index is selected by cluster analysis. On the basis of previous studies, the principal component analysis is optimized, and the early warning index is obtained, and the Markov prediction and 3 蟽 method are added to establish the model to predict and warn the real estate market in Harbin. The results of empirical analysis show that, from 2012 to now, real estate in Harbin has been in a cold state. It is necessary to keep Harbin real estate market healthy and orderly in combination with the two-way mechanism of market and government regulation and control. The empirical analysis shows that the real estate early warning system established in this paper can evaluate the development of urban real estate, but also can timely and accurately issue forecasts and warnings, which has great reference value and practical significance to the early warning of real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224
本文编号：2259962
[Abstract]:With the development of our national economy, the real estate industry is also developing at a high speed. However, China's real estate market development is not perfect, the formation of the corresponding management mechanism is not mature. There are many defects in the industry, leading to hidden risks in the real estate market. At present, the government can only issue the corresponding policies according to the current market situation to carry out macro-control, so the practice of repairing the losses can only cure the symptoms, and can not guarantee the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry fundamentally. Based on the theory of macro-economic early warning and the theory of real estate economic cycle fluctuation, this paper constructs the real estate early warning system of Harbin with the comprehensive simulation method as the main design thread. Based on the coordination relationship between real estate industry and national economy, the coordination relationship between supply and demand in real estate market and the coordination relationship within real estate industry, the index system of real estate early warning is established, and the index is selected by cluster analysis. On the basis of previous studies, the principal component analysis is optimized, and the early warning index is obtained, and the Markov prediction and 3 蟽 method are added to establish the model to predict and warn the real estate market in Harbin. The results of empirical analysis show that, from 2012 to now, real estate in Harbin has been in a cold state. It is necessary to keep Harbin real estate market healthy and orderly in combination with the two-way mechanism of market and government regulation and control. The empirical analysis shows that the real estate early warning system established in this paper can evaluate the development of urban real estate, but also can timely and accurately issue forecasts and warnings, which has great reference value and practical significance to the early warning of real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224
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