货币政策对房地产价格影响的区域效应分析
发布时间：2018-10-17 18:21
【摘要】：货币政策区域效应是指同一货币政策在不同区域发挥效应的差异性。我国是一个经济发展不平衡的大国，不同区域的发展水平和经济结构存在较大的差异，同时要素流动阻碍、经济开放程度不一、产品多样化发展不平衡、金融一体化程度不高等这些因素决定了我国不构成最优货币区。而我国的中央银行制度是，人行在全国范围内采取统一的货币政策，，这就必然会导致货币政策效应的差异性。文章通过研究房地产市场货币政策的传导机制，比较不同地区的房地产价格对利率、信贷规模和货币供应量等指标变化的敏感程度，得出如何通过改变货币政策的结构或缩小不同区域的差异，来解决货币政策区域不对称性对房地产市场的影响的结论。 本文第一章主要包括了研究背景、问题的提出、研究意义和研究目的，介绍了国内外文献的研究现状，对研究思路和方法进行介绍。本文将理论分析和实证分析相结合，采取了比较分析和综合分析并用的方法，运用VAR方法对时间序列进行协整检验、系统稳定性检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲效应分析。第二章主要介绍了房地产相关理论及货币政策相关理论基础，为后文的实证分析奠定理论基础。第三章阐述了货币政策对房地产价格影响的作用机制。主要以人民银行货币政策的角度，从利率、信用总量、货币供应量三个方面分析其在房地产市场的作用机制（其中利率包括存款准备金率、银行7天加权平均同业拆借率以及银行间市场债券质押式回购平均利率），理论上研究货币政策对房地产价格的影响。第四章则对房地产价格影响因素存在区域效应进行了实证检验。首先对模型的变量选取进行解释，然后对东、中、西三地的季度平均房价和货币供应量、国家信贷规模、银行加权平均7天拆借利率、银行间市场债券质押式回购平均利率季度数据进行说明。实证检验部分中，对三地的房地产季度数据和货币政策中介指标数据进行平稳性检验，建立VAR模型进行协整检验和格兰杰检验，然后进行脉冲响应分析，对三地房地产价格的影响因素及影响的强弱程度进行对比。实证结果表明，东部地区对银行7天加权平均同业拆借率和银行间市场债券质押式回购平均利率反应较为敏感，中西部地区的房价则与货币因素关联更大，对信贷总量和货币供应量的反应敏感。第五章主要在实证结论的基础上总结了我国房地产市场表现出货币政策区域效应的原因，并对如何缩小我国房地产市场区域性差异问题提出政策建议。文章认为可以从实行差别化的货币政策、加强地区银行和城市信用社在本地经济中的作用、加强利率在全国范围内的经济传导作用三个方面着手来解决我国区域发展不平衡对货币政策在房地产市场区域效应的影响的问题。
[Abstract]:The regional effect of monetary policy refers to the difference of the effect of the same monetary policy in different regions. China is a large country with unbalanced economic development. There are great differences in the level of development and economic structure in different regions. At the same time, the flow of elements is obstructed, the degree of economic opening varies, and the diversified development of products is not balanced. These factors, such as the low degree of financial integration, determine that China does not constitute the optimal currency area. But the central bank system of our country is that the people's Bank of China adopts a unified monetary policy in the whole country, which will inevitably lead to the difference of monetary policy effect. By studying the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in real estate market, this paper compares the sensitivity of real estate prices to the changes of interest rate, credit scale and money supply in different regions. The conclusion is that how to change the structure of monetary policy or narrow the differences between different regions to solve the impact of regional asymmetry of monetary policy on the real estate market. The first chapter of this paper mainly includes the research background, the question raising, the research significance and the research purpose, introduces the domestic and foreign literature research present situation, carries on the introduction to the research thought and the method. This paper combines the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis, adopts the method of comparative analysis and comprehensive analysis and uses the VAR method to carry on the cointegration test, the system stability test, the Granger causality test and the pulse effect analysis to the time series. The second chapter mainly introduces the theories of real estate and monetary policy. The third chapter expounds the effect of monetary policy on real estate prices. From the perspective of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy, this paper analyzes its mechanism of action in the real estate market from three aspects: interest rate, total credit amount and money supply. The 7-day weighted average interbank lending rate and the average interest rate of bond pledge repurchase in the interbank market) are theoretically studied on the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices. The fourth chapter makes an empirical test on the regional effect of real estate price influence factors. First, the variable selection of the model is explained, then the quarterly average house prices and money supply, the scale of national credit, the weighted average 7-day lending rate of banks in the east, middle and west of the country are explained. The interbank market bond pledge type repurchase average interest rate quarterly data to carry on the explanation. In the part of empirical test, we test the stability of quarterly real estate data and monetary policy intermediary index data, establish VAR model for cointegration test and Granger test, and then carry out impulse response analysis. This paper compares the influence factors and the degree of influence of real estate price in three places. The empirical results show that the eastern region is more sensitive to the average interbank lending rate of 7 days and the average interest rate of bond pledge repurchase in the interbank market, while the housing prices in the central and western regions are more closely related to monetary factors. Be sensitive to the response to the amount of credit and money supply. The fifth chapter summarizes the reasons for the regional effect of monetary policy in China's real estate market on the basis of empirical conclusions, and puts forward some policy recommendations on how to reduce the regional differences in real estate market. The article holds that the role of regional banks and urban credit cooperatives in the local economy can be strengthened by implementing a differentiated monetary policy. In order to solve the regional effect of monetary policy on the real estate market, we should strengthen the economic conduction function of interest rate in the whole country in three aspects to solve the problem that the regional development imbalance of our country affects the regional effect of monetary policy in the real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23
本文编号：2277552
[Abstract]:The regional effect of monetary policy refers to the difference of the effect of the same monetary policy in different regions. China is a large country with unbalanced economic development. There are great differences in the level of development and economic structure in different regions. At the same time, the flow of elements is obstructed, the degree of economic opening varies, and the diversified development of products is not balanced. These factors, such as the low degree of financial integration, determine that China does not constitute the optimal currency area. But the central bank system of our country is that the people's Bank of China adopts a unified monetary policy in the whole country, which will inevitably lead to the difference of monetary policy effect. By studying the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in real estate market, this paper compares the sensitivity of real estate prices to the changes of interest rate, credit scale and money supply in different regions. The conclusion is that how to change the structure of monetary policy or narrow the differences between different regions to solve the impact of regional asymmetry of monetary policy on the real estate market. The first chapter of this paper mainly includes the research background, the question raising, the research significance and the research purpose, introduces the domestic and foreign literature research present situation, carries on the introduction to the research thought and the method. This paper combines the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis, adopts the method of comparative analysis and comprehensive analysis and uses the VAR method to carry on the cointegration test, the system stability test, the Granger causality test and the pulse effect analysis to the time series. The second chapter mainly introduces the theories of real estate and monetary policy. The third chapter expounds the effect of monetary policy on real estate prices. From the perspective of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy, this paper analyzes its mechanism of action in the real estate market from three aspects: interest rate, total credit amount and money supply. The 7-day weighted average interbank lending rate and the average interest rate of bond pledge repurchase in the interbank market) are theoretically studied on the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices. The fourth chapter makes an empirical test on the regional effect of real estate price influence factors. First, the variable selection of the model is explained, then the quarterly average house prices and money supply, the scale of national credit, the weighted average 7-day lending rate of banks in the east, middle and west of the country are explained. The interbank market bond pledge type repurchase average interest rate quarterly data to carry on the explanation. In the part of empirical test, we test the stability of quarterly real estate data and monetary policy intermediary index data, establish VAR model for cointegration test and Granger test, and then carry out impulse response analysis. This paper compares the influence factors and the degree of influence of real estate price in three places. The empirical results show that the eastern region is more sensitive to the average interbank lending rate of 7 days and the average interest rate of bond pledge repurchase in the interbank market, while the housing prices in the central and western regions are more closely related to monetary factors. Be sensitive to the response to the amount of credit and money supply. The fifth chapter summarizes the reasons for the regional effect of monetary policy in China's real estate market on the basis of empirical conclusions, and puts forward some policy recommendations on how to reduce the regional differences in real estate market. The article holds that the role of regional banks and urban credit cooperatives in the local economy can be strengthened by implementing a differentiated monetary policy. In order to solve the regional effect of monetary policy on the real estate market, we should strengthen the economic conduction function of interest rate in the whole country in three aspects to solve the problem that the regional development imbalance of our country affects the regional effect of monetary policy in the real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23
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