宏观审慎政策对房地产价格的影响研究
发布时间：2018-10-20 19:35
【摘要】：改革开放后,国家就提出了一系列的针对房地产宏观调控制度的改革,我国的房地产行业又达到了一个新高度,成为了我国的支柱性产业,随着经济的蓬勃发展,我国公民的收入大幅度提高加上市场自然规律导致的房屋供不应求,使得近年来房价飞速上涨,世界上很多国家都曾有过房地产发展过猛、房价过度上升从而引发泡沫积累,最终使得国民经济整体受到危害的先例。目前在国际上已经公开认可,针对房价管控方面,宏观审慎政策相较于其他政策的实施效果显著。央行用宏观审慎政策调控房地产市场,是为了抑制房价、降低房地产热度,使其能够平稳发展,对我国金融市场乃至国民经济的稳健也都有着至关重要的作用。因此对房价与宏观审慎政策关系的研究就势在必行了,发现并深刻探究背后所蕴含的经济规律,为其提供相应的政策建议,就具有了相当重要的现实意义。鉴于于2008年金融危机的严重性,本文选取了2005——2015年的房价季度数据以及相应的利率、货币供给量、贷款价值比、GDP增长率、杠杆率、消费者价格指数,并运用了其中采用贷款价值比(LTV)作为宏观审慎的代理变量。运用的是VAR模型检验了宏观审慎政策对房价的作用效果,分析了宏观审慎政策对房价波动的调控效果、作用机制以及最优政策组合等问题。研究表明,房价的波动往往是系统性金融风险产生的主要根源,然而货币政策调控的单一性并不能完全的使金融稳定,针对房价调控问题,必须要适当的运用宏观审慎政策,用宏观审慎政策工具的代理变量贷款价值比(LTV)来约束居民信贷行为,再配合适当的其他政策,从而才可以最有效的降低房价波动。国外学者虽然已有一些研究宏观审慎对房价影响的文献,但认真整理现有的宏观审慎监管相关文献不难看出,第一是理论与实践分离开的,并没有很好的结合分析;第二多是全景式的分析宏观审慎框架的研究,缺乏对某一种具体政策工具运用的研究;第三国内多是研究单一的货币政策与房价之间的关系;第四即使有宏观审慎方面的研究,也多是从其对整体金融业的作用角度出发,而理论与实践结合的去分析宏观审慎政策对房价影响作用的文献并不多。因此本文在前人的基础上具体的运用了模型去检验宏观审慎政策对房价的实证效果,并切实的提出了相应的政策措施,分析了宏观审慎政策对房价波动的调控效果、作用机制以及最优政策组合等问题。有助于探索宏观审慎政策对房价的影响机理,帮助更好的控制房价。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the state has put forward a series of reforms aimed at the macro-control system of real estate. The real estate industry of our country has reached a new height and become the pillar industry of our country. With the rapid development of the economy, The substantial increase in the income of Chinese citizens and the shortage of housing due to the natural laws of the market have led to a rapid rise in housing prices in recent years. Many countries in the world have experienced excessive real estate development, and excessive rise in housing prices has led to the accumulation of bubbles. Finally, the national economy as a whole is endangered by the precedent. It has been publicly accepted that macroprudential policies are more effective than other policies in controlling house prices. The central bank controls the real estate market by macroprudential policy in order to restrain the house price, reduce the real estate heat, make it develop smoothly, and play a vital role in the stability of our country's financial market and even the national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to study the relationship between house prices and macro-prudential policies. It is of great practical significance to discover and deeply explore the economic laws behind them and provide corresponding policy recommendations. In view of the severity of the financial crisis in 2008, this paper selects the quarterly data on house prices from 2005 to 2015 and the corresponding interest rates, money supply, loan value ratio, GDP growth rate, leverage ratio, consumer price index. The loan value ratio (LTV) is used as a macroprudential proxy variable. The VAR model is used to test the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and the effects of macro-prudential policy on the price fluctuation, the mechanism and the optimal policy combination are analyzed. The research shows that the fluctuation of house price is often the main source of systemic financial risk, but the singularity of monetary policy regulation can not completely make the financial stability. To solve the problem of housing price regulation, we must apply macroprudential policy appropriately. The principal variable loan value ratio (LTV) of macroprudential policy instrument is used to restrain the resident's credit behavior and to coordinate with other appropriate policies so as to reduce the fluctuation of house price most effectively. Although some foreign scholars have studied the influence of macroprudential on housing prices, it is not difficult to find out that the first is the separation of theory and practice, and there is no good combination analysis; The second is a panoramic analysis of the macro-prudential framework, lacking research on the use of a specific policy tool; third, domestic studies on the relationship between a single monetary policy and housing prices; and fourth, even if there is a macro-prudential study. Most of them are from the point of view of its effect on the whole financial industry, but there are few literatures to analyze the effect of macroprudential policy on house price by combining theory and practice. Therefore, this paper uses the model to test the empirical effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and puts forward the corresponding policy measures, and analyzes the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price fluctuation. The mechanism of action and the optimal policy combination and so on. It is helpful to explore the influence mechanism of macroprudential policy on house price and help to control house price better.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23
本文编号：2284173
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the state has put forward a series of reforms aimed at the macro-control system of real estate. The real estate industry of our country has reached a new height and become the pillar industry of our country. With the rapid development of the economy, The substantial increase in the income of Chinese citizens and the shortage of housing due to the natural laws of the market have led to a rapid rise in housing prices in recent years. Many countries in the world have experienced excessive real estate development, and excessive rise in housing prices has led to the accumulation of bubbles. Finally, the national economy as a whole is endangered by the precedent. It has been publicly accepted that macroprudential policies are more effective than other policies in controlling house prices. The central bank controls the real estate market by macroprudential policy in order to restrain the house price, reduce the real estate heat, make it develop smoothly, and play a vital role in the stability of our country's financial market and even the national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to study the relationship between house prices and macro-prudential policies. It is of great practical significance to discover and deeply explore the economic laws behind them and provide corresponding policy recommendations. In view of the severity of the financial crisis in 2008, this paper selects the quarterly data on house prices from 2005 to 2015 and the corresponding interest rates, money supply, loan value ratio, GDP growth rate, leverage ratio, consumer price index. The loan value ratio (LTV) is used as a macroprudential proxy variable. The VAR model is used to test the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and the effects of macro-prudential policy on the price fluctuation, the mechanism and the optimal policy combination are analyzed. The research shows that the fluctuation of house price is often the main source of systemic financial risk, but the singularity of monetary policy regulation can not completely make the financial stability. To solve the problem of housing price regulation, we must apply macroprudential policy appropriately. The principal variable loan value ratio (LTV) of macroprudential policy instrument is used to restrain the resident's credit behavior and to coordinate with other appropriate policies so as to reduce the fluctuation of house price most effectively. Although some foreign scholars have studied the influence of macroprudential on housing prices, it is not difficult to find out that the first is the separation of theory and practice, and there is no good combination analysis; The second is a panoramic analysis of the macro-prudential framework, lacking research on the use of a specific policy tool; third, domestic studies on the relationship between a single monetary policy and housing prices; and fourth, even if there is a macro-prudential study. Most of them are from the point of view of its effect on the whole financial industry, but there are few literatures to analyze the effect of macroprudential policy on house price by combining theory and practice. Therefore, this paper uses the model to test the empirical effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and puts forward the corresponding policy measures, and analyzes the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price fluctuation. The mechanism of action and the optimal policy combination and so on. It is helpful to explore the influence mechanism of macroprudential policy on house price and help to control house price better.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23
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