重庆市商品住宅投资环境综合评价与实证研究
发布时间：2018-10-23 13:36
【摘要】：我国房产市场经过2010年以来的一系列调控，房价上升的势头并未得到明显抑制。进入2012年，房地产调控政策稳中趋紧，从中央到地方政府的各职能部门又一轮逐步展开对房地产市场的调控，房地产市场呈现出明显的理性回归态势。同时，房地产企业经营盈利模式遭遇挑战，库存压力持续增大，资金链日趋紧张，房地产业亟待转型，对商品住宅投资环境综合评价已成为投资决策成败的关键所在。作为西部地区唯一的直辖市，重庆市房地产市场投资、建设、销售等各项指标增长速度均呈现出不同程度的放缓态势。论文分析认为该时期房地产市场的特征主要有：宏观政策偏向自主性和改善性需求，抑制投资投机性需求；房产税政策试点推广，保障房建设力度持续加大；房企以价换量刺激刚性需求，去库存回笼资金加速；市场短期利好促进楼市反弹，城镇化长期利好造成楼市刚需强劲。为此，本文对2007-2012年重庆市商品住宅投资环境进行系统分析，根据主城北上策略选择主城北部的渝北区作为实例，与主城其他区域作对比分析，建立评价模型进行综合评价。 作为统筹城乡发展改革试验区，重庆市房价收入比相对比较合理，，楼市利好政策将多于其他城市。本文以房地产市场理论为基础理论，从房地产开发商的角度综合评价商品住宅投资环境的优劣状况。论文数据主要通过查询《重庆市统计年鉴》（2008-2012）以及问卷调查法的方式获取。论文将商品住宅投资环境分为宏观经济环境、社会人居环境、政策法律环境、基础公用环境、自然地理环境以及市场竞争环境6大环境准则，采用因素分析法得出31个影响因素，进而采用二轮德尔菲法筛选出20个关键指标，并借助AHP法建立商品住宅投资环境指标体系和指标权重分布；将AHP法和模糊综合评价法结合起来构建商品住宅投资环境模糊综合评价模型。本文邀请建设管理与房地产领域的20位专业人士组成评价小组应用模型进行模糊综合评价，渝北区环境特质可以认定为：良好水平（II级水平），高于主城区平均水平，正处于稳步发展阶段（II级水平）过渡到相对成熟阶段（Ⅰ级水平）的利好区间。论文提供重庆市商品住宅投资环境的对比研究分析，能够帮助房地产开发商理性认知渝北区商品住宅投资环境的优劣水平和未来的发展方向。
[Abstract]:After a series of regulation and control since 2010, the rising trend of house prices has not been significantly suppressed. In 2012, the real estate regulation and control policy is tightening steadily, and every functional department from the central government to the local government has gradually carried out the regulation and control of the real estate market, and the real estate market has shown an obvious rational return trend. At the same time, the real estate enterprises face the challenge of operating profit mode, the pressure of inventory increases continuously, the chain of funds becomes increasingly tight, the real estate industry needs to be transformed urgently. The comprehensive evaluation of the investment environment of commodity housing has become the key to the success or failure of investment decision. As the only municipality directly under the Central Government in the west Chongqing real estate market investment construction sales and other indicators of the growth rate has shown a different degree of slowdown. The main characteristics of the real estate market in this period are as follows: macro policy bias toward autonomy and improvement demand to curb investment speculative demand, property tax policy pilot promotion, indemnificatory apartment construction continued to increase; Housing companies exchange prices to stimulate rigid demand, go back to stock funds to accelerate; market short-term positive to promote a rebound in the property market, urbanization long-term good resulting in strong demand for the property market rigidity. Therefore, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing from 2007 to 2012, and selects Yubei District in the northern part of the main city as an example according to the strategy of going northward to the main city, and makes a comparative analysis with other regions in the main city, and establishes an evaluation model for comprehensive evaluation. As a pilot area of urban and rural development reform, the ratio of house price to income in Chongqing is relatively reasonable, and the good policy of property market will be more than that of other cities. Based on the theory of real estate market, this paper synthetically evaluates the investment environment of commercial housing from the angle of real estate developers. The data of this paper are obtained by querying Chongqing Statistical Yearbook (2008-2012) and questionnaire survey. In this paper, the investment environment of commercial housing is divided into macroeconomic environment, social living environment, policy and law environment, basic public environment, natural geographical environment and market competition environment. Using factor analysis method, 31 influencing factors were obtained, and then 20 key indexes were selected by two-round Delphi method, and the index system and index weight distribution of commodity housing investment environment were established by AHP method. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of commercial housing investment environment is constructed by combining AHP method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This paper invites 20 professionals in the field of construction management and real estate to make a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by applying the model. The environmental characteristics of Yubei District can be regarded as good level (II level), which is higher than the average level of the main urban area. It is at the stage of steady development (II level) to relatively mature stage (grade I level). This paper provides a comparative study and analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing, which can help the real estate developers to understand rationally the advantages and disadvantages of the commercial housing investment environment in Yubei District and the future development direction.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
本文编号：2289416
[Abstract]:After a series of regulation and control since 2010, the rising trend of house prices has not been significantly suppressed. In 2012, the real estate regulation and control policy is tightening steadily, and every functional department from the central government to the local government has gradually carried out the regulation and control of the real estate market, and the real estate market has shown an obvious rational return trend. At the same time, the real estate enterprises face the challenge of operating profit mode, the pressure of inventory increases continuously, the chain of funds becomes increasingly tight, the real estate industry needs to be transformed urgently. The comprehensive evaluation of the investment environment of commodity housing has become the key to the success or failure of investment decision. As the only municipality directly under the Central Government in the west Chongqing real estate market investment construction sales and other indicators of the growth rate has shown a different degree of slowdown. The main characteristics of the real estate market in this period are as follows: macro policy bias toward autonomy and improvement demand to curb investment speculative demand, property tax policy pilot promotion, indemnificatory apartment construction continued to increase; Housing companies exchange prices to stimulate rigid demand, go back to stock funds to accelerate; market short-term positive to promote a rebound in the property market, urbanization long-term good resulting in strong demand for the property market rigidity. Therefore, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing from 2007 to 2012, and selects Yubei District in the northern part of the main city as an example according to the strategy of going northward to the main city, and makes a comparative analysis with other regions in the main city, and establishes an evaluation model for comprehensive evaluation. As a pilot area of urban and rural development reform, the ratio of house price to income in Chongqing is relatively reasonable, and the good policy of property market will be more than that of other cities. Based on the theory of real estate market, this paper synthetically evaluates the investment environment of commercial housing from the angle of real estate developers. The data of this paper are obtained by querying Chongqing Statistical Yearbook (2008-2012) and questionnaire survey. In this paper, the investment environment of commercial housing is divided into macroeconomic environment, social living environment, policy and law environment, basic public environment, natural geographical environment and market competition environment. Using factor analysis method, 31 influencing factors were obtained, and then 20 key indexes were selected by two-round Delphi method, and the index system and index weight distribution of commodity housing investment environment were established by AHP method. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of commercial housing investment environment is constructed by combining AHP method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This paper invites 20 professionals in the field of construction management and real estate to make a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by applying the model. The environmental characteristics of Yubei District can be regarded as good level (II level), which is higher than the average level of the main urban area. It is at the stage of steady development (II level) to relatively mature stage (grade I level). This paper provides a comparative study and analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing, which can help the real estate developers to understand rationally the advantages and disadvantages of the commercial housing investment environment in Yubei District and the future development direction.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
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