房地产与中国宏观经济发展的关系研究
发布时间：2018-11-26 08:55
【摘要】：近年来，随着越来越多的人进入适婚年龄，房地产价格也引发了越来越多的关注，2013年刚刚出台的“国五条”也是激起了媒体的热烈讨论，到底是政府对房价太过敏，还是房地产确实存在问题需要政策进行调控。基于中国房地产目前的情况，就房地产与宏观经济的互动机制，本文对以下几个方面进行了探索：第一，构造了房价与宏观经济指标的协整模型，得到了关于房地产与宏观经济的长期均衡关系，并得出我国的房价的上涨是有经济基本面支撑的。这一部分主要探索了房价的宏观经济决定。第二，我们主要研究房地产市场波动对宏观经济的影响。我们选取了消费水平与经济增长两个指标代表宏观经济的运行情况，我们采用向量自回归模型，利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解的手段分别研究了房价波动对我国消费水平的影响研究，以及房地产投资波动对我国经济增长的影响研究，得出了房地产的波动会导致宏观经济的较大波动的结论。第三，我们回顾了我国房地产的发展历史，同时对政府关于房地产的调控政策进行了简单的梳理；最后，，对于政策调控，并相应提出了几点建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as more and more people have reached marriageable age, real estate prices have attracted more and more attention. The "National five rules" just introduced in 2013 have aroused heated discussion in the media, whether the government is too allergic to house prices. Or real estate problems really need to be controlled by the policy. Based on the current situation of real estate in China, this paper explores the interaction mechanism between real estate and macro economy in the following aspects: first, a cointegration model of housing price and macroeconomic indicators is constructed. The long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate and macro-economy is obtained, and it is concluded that the rise of house prices in china is supported by economic fundamentals. This part mainly explores the macro-economic decision of house price. Second, we mainly study the impact of real estate market fluctuations on the macro-economy. We choose the consumption level and economic growth to represent the macroeconomic performance, we use the vector autoregressive model. By means of impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper studies the impact of house price fluctuation on consumption level in China, and the impact of real estate investment fluctuation on China's economic growth. This paper draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of real estate will lead to the larger fluctuation of macro economy. Thirdly, we review the development history of real estate in our country, at the same time, we make a simple combing of the government's regulation and control policy on real estate. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for the policy regulation and control.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124;F299.23
本文编号：2358048
[Abstract]:In recent years, as more and more people have reached marriageable age, real estate prices have attracted more and more attention. The "National five rules" just introduced in 2013 have aroused heated discussion in the media, whether the government is too allergic to house prices. Or real estate problems really need to be controlled by the policy. Based on the current situation of real estate in China, this paper explores the interaction mechanism between real estate and macro economy in the following aspects: first, a cointegration model of housing price and macroeconomic indicators is constructed. The long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate and macro-economy is obtained, and it is concluded that the rise of house prices in china is supported by economic fundamentals. This part mainly explores the macro-economic decision of house price. Second, we mainly study the impact of real estate market fluctuations on the macro-economy. We choose the consumption level and economic growth to represent the macroeconomic performance, we use the vector autoregressive model. By means of impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper studies the impact of house price fluctuation on consumption level in China, and the impact of real estate investment fluctuation on China's economic growth. This paper draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of real estate will lead to the larger fluctuation of macro economy. Thirdly, we review the development history of real estate in our country, at the same time, we make a simple combing of the government's regulation and control policy on real estate. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for the policy regulation and control.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124;F299.23
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