城镇化进程下中国住宅财富效应研究

发布时间：2018-12-14 07:04

【摘要】：在我国城镇化进程加快、房地产市场迅速繁荣城镇居民消费率却逐年下降的社会背景下，住宅价格的波动对居民消费支出影响成为财富效应研究的主要方向。国内对住宅财富效应研究，多以不同物业形态的综合销售价格为变量，而商业地产、工业地产等非住宅类物业形态对居民收入和消费影响较小；同时，国内对不同省市的住宅财富效应研究，多从居民收入层次或地理区域来划分小组对比分析，而未考虑到城镇化发展对住宅市场、居民收入及居民消费的影响。因此，，本文选用住宅销售价格、居民可支配收入和居民消费支出作为研究变量，以消费函数理论和住宅财富效应传导路径为理论支撑，采用面板数据模型，针对不同城镇化率的省市，细微分析其住宅财富效应的差异，主要包括如下4部分：第一，对已有的消费函数理论和住宅市场财富效应的传导路径进行梳理与归纳，并计算我国住宅价格增长率、房价收入比和城镇化率，为下文的实证分析做数据支撑。第二，采用我国31个省市2000年-2011年的面板数据，建立固定效应变系数模型，实证检验各个省市的住宅财富效应，分析表明：我国住宅价格的波动上涨抑制了大部分省市的城镇居民消费支出，且不同省市的住宅财富效应差异较大。第三，依据不同省市城镇化水平的差异，将我国31个省市面板数据分为5个群组建立模型估计，并分析5个群组的住宅财富效应规律，实证分析表明：我国城镇化水平较低的省份，住宅财富效应显著为正，而城镇化水平较高的省份，住宅财富效应显著为负。第四，以住宅财富效应的传导路径的角度，通过减少租房者的预算约束效应、降低中低收入群体的挤出（替代）效应、降低住房持有者的流动性约束三个个方面提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of rapid urbanization and rapid prosperity of the real estate market, the consumption rate of urban residents has declined year by year. The impact of the fluctuation of housing prices on the consumption expenditure has become the main research direction of the wealth effect. The domestic research on the property wealth effect mostly takes the comprehensive sale price of different property forms as the variable, while the commercial real estate, industrial real estate and other non-residential property forms have little effect on the residents' income and consumption. At the same time, the domestic research on housing wealth effect in different provinces and cities is divided into groups from the income level or geographical area, without considering the impact of urbanization on the housing market, residents' income and residents' consumption. Therefore, this paper chooses the residential sales price, resident disposable income and resident consumption expenditure as the research variables, with the consumption function theory and the housing wealth effect conduction path as the theoretical support, using panel data model, Aiming at different cities and provinces with different urbanization rate, the difference of housing wealth effect is analyzed in detail, which includes the following four parts: first, the author sorts out and sums up the existing consumption function theory and the conduction path of housing market wealth effect. The rate of housing price growth, the ratio of house price to income and the urbanization rate are calculated to support the empirical analysis below. Secondly, using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2011, a fixed effect variable coefficient model is established to test the housing wealth effect of each province and city empirically. The analysis shows that the fluctuation of housing price in China inhibits the consumption expenditure of urban residents in most provinces and cities, and the effect of housing wealth varies greatly in different provinces and cities. Thirdly, according to the different urbanization level of different provinces and cities, the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China are divided into 5 groups to establish model estimation, and analyze the law of housing wealth effect of five groups. The empirical analysis shows that in the provinces with low urbanization level, the effect of housing wealth is significantly positive, while in the provinces with higher urbanization level, the effect of housing wealth is significantly negative. Fourthly, from the perspective of the transmission path of housing wealth effect, three aspects of policy suggestions are put forward by reducing the budget constraint effect of renters, reducing the crowding out (substitution) effect of middle and low income groups, and reducing the liquidity constraints of housing holders.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F299.21

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