基于SD模型的上海住房保障水平仿真研究

发布时间：2019-03-06 12:32

【摘要】：随着人口规模的扩大以及城市化发展速度的不断加快,越来越多的人口聚集于城市,人口的聚集产生了对城市住房和土地的巨大需求,从而导致房价快速上涨。同时,伴随着我国的收入差距不断扩大,国民财富主要聚集在高收入阶层手中,中低收入阶层的购房愿望更加难以实现,只能“望房兴叹”。为此,政府开始推行住房保障工程,以保障中低收入阶层最基本的住房权利,随着中央及地方各级政府对保障性住房重视程度的加重,学术界对于住房保障的研究也遍地开花,然而,对于住房保障水平的研究却不多。本文在理论与实践相结合的基础上,以上海市住房保障水平为研究对象,建立系统动力学模型,对住房保障水平进行政策仿真实验,以期发现系统内重要政策参数对住房保障水平的影响作用,从而提出相应的政策建议。文章的研究思路如下:首先,文章总结了关于住房保障水平的理论研究及文献综述,理论研究部分是全文研究的基础,文献综述则不仅对本文的开展有很大的借鉴意义,同时也是本文的切入点所在。其次,建立基于系统动力学的住房保障水平理论模型,该理论模型共包括四个子系统。然后,运用系统动力学模型对上海市的住房保障水平进行实证分析,对模型进行结构方程建立、参数估计、模型检验之后,设置六个情景仿真实验,以研究系统内重要政策参数对住房保障水平的影响作用。最后,根据仿真分析结果给出合理的对策建议,这是本文研究的出发点,亦是落脚点。通过政策仿真实验,本文认为:保障性住房补贴方式中“人头补贴”比“砖头补贴”效率更高,政府可以采取以下措施以提高住房保障水平,即要确定适度的住房保障投资比例,优化调整住房保障投资结构,创造稳定的房地产市场发展环境,建立并完善个人信用体系,为生育政策的改变准备好应对策略。同时,在保障性住房法律建设、政策性金融支持体系建立、拓宽融资渠道、保障对象确定等问题上也必须给与重视。只有不断完善住房保障体系,才能使住房保障水平得以提高,从而使更多地中低收入群体享受到政府的住房保障福利。本文的研究具有一定的理论意义及实践价值,住房保障水平SD模型的创建丰富了住房保障领域的研究成果,同时,上海市住房保障水平的仿真分析对把握上海市总体的住房保障水平,完善住房保障体系,制定阶段性及长远性的策略都有一定的参考意义,对全国其他地区的住房保障体系建立也有很强的借鉴价值。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of population and the rapid development of urbanization, more and more people gather in the city. The aggregation of population leads to the huge demand for urban housing and land, which leads to the rapid increase of house prices. At the same time, with the widening income gap in our country, the national wealth is mainly concentrated in the hands of the high-income class, and the low-and middle-income class's desire to buy a house is more difficult to realize, and can only "look at the house and sigh". For this reason, the government began to carry out housing security projects to protect the most basic housing rights of the middle-and low-income class. With the increasing attention attached to affordable housing by the central and local governments at all levels, the academic research on housing security has also blossomed everywhere. However, there are few studies on the level of housing security. Based on the combination of theory and practice, this paper takes the housing security level of Shanghai as the research object, establishes the system dynamics model, and carries on the policy simulation experiment to the housing security level, In order to find out the effect of the important policy parameters on the housing security level in the system, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The research ideas are as follows: firstly, the paper summarizes the theoretical research and literature review on the level of housing security. The theoretical research part is the basis of the full-text research, and the literature review is not only of great significance to the development of this paper. At the same time, it is also the starting point of this paper. Secondly, a theoretical model of housing security level based on system dynamics is established, which consists of four subsystems. Then, using the system dynamics model to carry on the empirical analysis to the housing security level of Shanghai, establish the structure equation of the model, estimate the parameters and test the model, then set up six scene simulation experiments. In order to study the impact of important policy parameters in the system on the level of housing security. Finally, according to the simulation analysis results, the reasonable countermeasures and suggestions are given, which is the starting point and the end point of this paper. Through the policy simulation experiment, this paper holds that the "head subsidy" is more efficient than the "brick subsidy" in the way of subsidizing affordable housing, and the government can take the following measures to improve the level of housing security. That is to say, it is necessary to determine the appropriate proportion of housing security investment, optimize the investment structure of housing security, create a stable environment for the development of real estate market, establish and perfect the personal credit system, and prepare strategies for the change of fertility policy. At the same time, we must pay more attention to the legal construction of affordable housing, the establishment of policy-based financial support system, the widening of financing channels, and the determination of guarantee objects. Only by constantly improving the housing security system can the housing security level be improved, so that more low-and middle-income groups can enjoy the housing security benefits of the government. The research in this paper has certain theoretical significance and practical value. The establishment of the SD model of housing security level enriches the research results in the field of housing security, and at the same time, The simulation analysis of the housing security level in Shanghai has certain reference significance to grasp the overall housing security level in Shanghai, improve the housing security system, and formulate the strategy of stage and long-term. The establishment of housing security system in other parts of the country also has a strong reference value.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23

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