基于系统动力学的廉租住房运行机制仿真研究

发布时间：2019-04-17 07:01

【摘要】：随着开放的市场环境对房地产领域的全面渗透，住房价格不断攀升，居民收入与房价矛盾明显扩大，住房日益困难成为干扰经济发展社会和谐稳定的障碍中央政府在2007年颁布了ǎ关于解决城市低收入家庭住房困难的若干意见ǐ，将廉租住房保障政策认定为解决城市低收入家庭住房问题的政策主体但是，在其制度的实际运行中暴露出了很多现实问题，如财政资金不到位保障覆盖面狭窄准入门槛设定困难及保障对象退出机制缺失等，以至于使得很多弱势群体的住房问题难以得到有效的解决因此，探索研究廉租住房运行机制的各种影响因素，，建立廉租住房运行机制仿真模型并参照该模型判断其发展趋势，及时的对政策作出调整是十分重要和必要的本文以系统动力学理论为基础，结合廉租住房运行机制发展现状，将廉租住房置于社会经济宏观环境影响下，界定廉租住房系统，尝试对其作定量化研究，构建SD模型文章深入剖析了系统内部各因素之间的关系，确定了城市人口社会经济廉租住房供应需求退出及政府政策六个子系统，并进行因果分析，确定系统中的各类变量，进而绘制各子系统流图和系统整体流图，建立SD方程并确定相关参数同时，本文以北京市为例，将相关的历史数据带入模型，进行了模型的结构检验历史数据检验和灵敏度检验，验证了模型的有效性本文仿真输出了北京市廉租住房运行机制的发展趋势，根据模拟结果，总结出对系统内部起主导作用的管理类参数，并且通过调整关键变量的变化幅度，进行情景模拟，揭示影响廉租住房供需比的直接因素根据对不同政策方案产生的运行结果进行分析比较，提出较为有效和有针对性的合理化建议，为政府科学改善廉租住房保障政策提供了一定的参考
[Abstract]:With the overall penetration of the open market environment to the real estate field, housing prices continue to rise, and the contradiction between residents' income and housing prices has obviously expanded. The growing difficulty of housing has become an obstacle to social harmony and stability in economic development. In 2007, the central government issued a number of opinions on solving the housing difficulties of urban low-income families. The low-rent housing security policy is identified as the main body of the policy to solve the housing problem of urban low-income families. However, many practical problems have been exposed in the actual operation of its system. If the financial funds are not in place to guarantee the narrow entry threshold of coverage and the lack of an exit mechanism, so that the housing problems of many vulnerable groups are difficult to be effectively resolved. This paper explores all kinds of influencing factors of operating mechanism of low-rent housing, establishes simulation model of operating mechanism of low-rent housing and judges its development trend according to this model. It is very important and necessary to adjust the policy in time. Based on the theory of system dynamics and the current situation of the development of the operating mechanism of low-rent housing, this paper puts the low-rent housing under the influence of social and economic macro-environment. This paper defines the low-rent housing system, attempts to make quantitative research on it, constructs the SD model, analyzes the relationship between the internal factors of the system, and determines six subsystems of the urban population, social and economic low-rent housing supply and demand withdrawal and government policy. And carry on cause and effect analysis, determine all kinds of variables in the system, then draw the flow diagram of each subsystem and the whole flow diagram of the system, establish the SD equation and determine the related parameters, at the same time, take Beijing as an example, bring the relevant historical data into the model. The historical data and sensitivity tests of the model are carried out to verify the validity of the model. In this paper, the development trend of the operating mechanism of low-rent housing in Beijing is simulated and outputted, according to the simulation results, The management parameters which play a leading role in the system are summarized, and the scenario simulation is carried out by adjusting the range of changes of key variables. The direct factors affecting the supply-demand ratio of low-rent housing are analyzed and compared according to the operating results of different policy schemes, and more effective and targeted rationalization suggestions are put forward. It provides some reference for the government to improve the low-rent housing security policy scientifically.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：N941.3;F299.23

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