房地产上市公司财务困境预警的实证研究
发布时间：2019-07-06 08:13
【摘要】：近年来,伴随着我国资本市场的不断扩大和深化以及我国市场经济的进一步发展,上市公司在市场上也面临着激烈的竞争以致优胜劣汰,相关政策措施也对上市公司退市和破产机制进行了明确清晰的界定和规划,因此,上市公司的财务管理和预警越来越受到广泛的关注。上市公司的财务状况往往反映了该公司管理运营的效率,其对公司的各个层面都能产生积极或者正面的影响,如果上市公司的财务状况出现持续性非逆转的恶化,那么就可以认定该上市公司陷入了财务困境,一旦公司陷入财务困境,就会对整个社会资源造成浪费,牵扯到整个行业发展的稳定性,因此,在现阶段,我国金融体系和社会信用体制均很不完善,对财务困境预警的研究就显得尤为必要且具有相当的现实意义。 我国的房地产行业经过十几年的市场化发展,已经形成了规模化的房地产上市公司,而房地产行业本身又具有周期长、高投资、高风险、关联性强等诸多特点,该行业的运营牵涉到国民经济的健康发展,其本身就是舆论关注的焦点,特别是近年来对房地产行业的宏观和微观的调控,使得该行业的上市公司隐含着相应的财务风险,对这些财务风险的正确预警和解决将关系到该行业和国民经济能否健康稳定的发展。 本文回顾了国内外有关财务困境预警的研究,通过合理分析房地产行业的特点来挖掘房地产上市公司的风险来源,从而通过选择我国上市房地产公司作为样本来构建符合该行业特征的财务风险预警评价指标体系,根据样本数据,我们通过Mann-Whitney U非参数检验和Pearson相关性检验对财务指标数据进行预处理,并将预处理后的数据进行实证分析,考虑到动态性原则,我们采用了生存分析中的Cox模型来拟合多个时间段的样本数据,这样可以防止单期模型所不能反映公司财务状况的趋势性信息的劣势。经过合理分析发现,资产负债率、流动比率、已获利息倍数、总资产增长率、总资产净利率(ROA)、销售净利率这六个指标能够对我国上市房地产公司陷入财务困境做出较好的预警,进而对这些指标的现实经济意义做出合理解释,并提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous expansion and deepening of China's capital market and the further development of China's market economy, listed companies are also facing fierce competition in the market to survive the fittest. Relevant policies and measures have also clearly defined and planned the delisting and bankruptcy mechanism of listed companies. Therefore, the financial management and early warning of listed companies have received more and more extensive attention. The financial situation of the listed company often reflects the efficiency of the management and operation of the company, which can have a positive or positive impact on all levels of the company. If the financial situation of the listed company has a continuous and irreversible deterioration, then it can be concluded that the listed company is in financial distress. Once the company is in financial distress, it will waste the entire social resources and involve the stability of the development of the whole industry. Therefore, at this stage, China's financial system and social credit system are not perfect, the study of financial distress early warning is particularly necessary and has considerable practical significance. After more than ten years of marketization development, the real estate industry in our country has formed a large-scale real estate listed company, and the real estate industry itself has many characteristics, such as long cycle, high investment, high risk, strong correlation and so on. The operation of this industry involves the healthy development of the national economy, and it itself is the focus of public opinion, especially the macro and micro regulation and control of the real estate industry in recent years. So that the listed companies in this industry imply the corresponding financial risks, the correct early warning and solution of these financial risks will be related to the healthy and stable development of the industry and the national economy. This paper reviews the research on early warning of financial distress at home and abroad, excavates the risk source of real estate listed companies through reasonable analysis of the characteristics of the real estate industry, and then constructs the financial risk early warning evaluation index system in accordance with the characteristics of the industry by selecting the listed real estate companies in China as a sample. According to the sample data, We preprocess the financial index data through Mann-Whitney U nonparametric test and Pearson correlation test, and analyze the preprocessed data empirically. Considering the dynamic principle, we use the Cox model in survival analysis to fit the sample data of multiple time periods, which can prevent the disadvantage that the single-phase model can not reflect the trend information of the company's financial situation. Through reasonable analysis, it is found that the six indexes of asset-liability ratio, current ratio, interest multiple, total asset growth rate and total net asset interest rate (ROA), sales net interest rate can make a good early warning to the financial distress of listed real estate companies in China, and then make a reasonable explanation of the practical economic significance of these indicators, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.42
本文编号：2510894
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous expansion and deepening of China's capital market and the further development of China's market economy, listed companies are also facing fierce competition in the market to survive the fittest. Relevant policies and measures have also clearly defined and planned the delisting and bankruptcy mechanism of listed companies. Therefore, the financial management and early warning of listed companies have received more and more extensive attention. The financial situation of the listed company often reflects the efficiency of the management and operation of the company, which can have a positive or positive impact on all levels of the company. If the financial situation of the listed company has a continuous and irreversible deterioration, then it can be concluded that the listed company is in financial distress. Once the company is in financial distress, it will waste the entire social resources and involve the stability of the development of the whole industry. Therefore, at this stage, China's financial system and social credit system are not perfect, the study of financial distress early warning is particularly necessary and has considerable practical significance. After more than ten years of marketization development, the real estate industry in our country has formed a large-scale real estate listed company, and the real estate industry itself has many characteristics, such as long cycle, high investment, high risk, strong correlation and so on. The operation of this industry involves the healthy development of the national economy, and it itself is the focus of public opinion, especially the macro and micro regulation and control of the real estate industry in recent years. So that the listed companies in this industry imply the corresponding financial risks, the correct early warning and solution of these financial risks will be related to the healthy and stable development of the industry and the national economy. This paper reviews the research on early warning of financial distress at home and abroad, excavates the risk source of real estate listed companies through reasonable analysis of the characteristics of the real estate industry, and then constructs the financial risk early warning evaluation index system in accordance with the characteristics of the industry by selecting the listed real estate companies in China as a sample. According to the sample data, We preprocess the financial index data through Mann-Whitney U nonparametric test and Pearson correlation test, and analyze the preprocessed data empirically. Considering the dynamic principle, we use the Cox model in survival analysis to fit the sample data of multiple time periods, which can prevent the disadvantage that the single-phase model can not reflect the trend information of the company's financial situation. Through reasonable analysis, it is found that the six indexes of asset-liability ratio, current ratio, interest multiple, total asset growth rate and total net asset interest rate (ROA), sales net interest rate can make a good early warning to the financial distress of listed real estate companies in China, and then make a reasonable explanation of the practical economic significance of these indicators, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.42
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 谢纪刚,裘正定,韩彦俊,莫莉;上市公司财务困境预测模型比较研究[J];系统工程理论与实践;2005年09期
2 杨保安,季海,徐晶,温金祥;BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用[J];预测;2001年02期
，本文编号：2510894
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