中国电信业改革重组过程中的全要素生长率增长及内外影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 19:06

本文选题：电信重组改革 + 全要素生产率　；参考：《北京邮电大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：继2008年电信业重组以及3G牌照的发放,使中国移动、中国联通和中国电信三家均成为全业务电信运营商之后,2013年又宣布4G牌照的发放,无疑将激发电信业又一轮的投资热潮和促进电信业的更激烈的竞争,然而,改革前后中国电信运营商的竞争力如何?有无改善以及如何提升其国际竞争力?中国电信业的增长是依赖于投资驱动还是效率的提升?面对国家和国际新的经济发展环境,中国电信业该如何发展以顺应新形势,这就产生对中国电信业的改革和效率进行实证研究的需求,通过研究工作既可以扩展中国电信业理论研究的内涵,同时也可以对中国电信业发展的轨迹进行分析和描述,从而对未来发展产生现实意义。本文梳理了国内外相关文献,以此为基础再结合定性的研究和定量的研究,并同等重要的应用了规范研究和实证研究,选用了非参数、随机前沿生产函数等前沿数学方法,对中国电信业技术效率(静态)和全要素生产率增长(动态)进行研究,并分别从业务量和用户数两个角度较全面地区分析,然后进一步分析了内外生性影响因素,考察电信改革对中国电信业增长的影响及电信业增长的驱动力。详细来讲,本文主要研究内容包括以下几个方面：第一、相关理论与方法综述。首先介绍了中国电信业的发展历程及改革概况,分析了本文研究的背景、目的及意义,然后给出了本文的研究内容,结合相关理论最后针对本文的研究方法进行了简要介绍、系统梳理和归纳总结。第二、中国电信业改革、区域差异及技术效率研究。首先选用基于DEA的BC2模型；其次,运用排除外部影响因素的三阶段DEA模型,分别以基于经济效益的业务量为产出和基于社会效益的以用户为产出的不同评价方案,对中国电信业2000-2012年间的效率进行了分析；最后,从电信改革政策、电信改革阶段、区域差异等三方面分别对比分析了技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率的变化。指出从改革、价格上限规制来看,历次改革均有或正或负的较小且短暂的影响,但从长期来看,均对效率的提升起到了一定的促进作用,而技术效率的主要贡献者为规模效率,纯技术无效率是导致技术无效率的直接原因,且技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率均呈现明显的区域特征,而外部环境是影响纯技术效率不同的主要原因。第三、中国电信业改革、全要素生产率及区域差异研究。利用非参数的Malmquist指数和参数的SFA两种方法,对2001-2012年间中国电信业全要素生产率的变动进行测算,在进一步分析其时序特征及空间差异的基础上,深入分析差异的演变规律和内在机制,并实证分析经济体制改革对电信行业增长的影响。整体来讲,2001-2012年中国电信业务量和全要素生产率均呈现了较大的增长,且电信业务量的增加主要由全要素生产率的增加引起,已完成从投资驱动型向效率驱动型的转型,全要素生产率的增长主要由技术进步引起,而技术效率变化较小,且规模效率基本处于规模有效状态,具有微弱的增长。电信改革措施从长期来看均对TFP增长有促进作用,但产出的增速放缓,且对技术进步、技术效率、规模效率等有短暂的抑制作用。从时序特性方面分析TFP增长发现中国电信业呈现明显的阶段性表现,技术进步和技术效率的有交互带动的作用,尽管技术效率的影响相对较为微小,这种阶段性特性与中国电信业的改革相应,但也出现了新特点,本文研究发现2011-2012阶段出现技术进步影响放缓,并显现技术效率负影响,与之相应OTT业务的迅猛发展成为解释的原因。从空间(区域)特性方面看,中国电信业各省份电信业TFP增长率存在较大的空间差异,东、中、西部呈现明显的发展层次水平,中西部电信业水平低于东部地区,但追赶效应明显,东、中、西部三大地区电信业发展出现“俱乐部”趋同趋势。进一步,本文利用2001-2012年连续数据分析的基础上,结合当前热点的混合所有制改革,尝试性地对中国未来电信业的混合所有制改革提出了建议。第四、中国电信业全要素生产率增长的外生性影响因素分析。运用面板回归对影响全要素生产率的外生性因素进行了分析。指出经济发展水平及工业化程度均在一定程度上促进了电信业TFP增长率的提升,人口规模及人口密度对电信业各效率及增长率基本存在促进的正向作用,人力资本与科技创新均没有对电信业效率提升产生显著的促进作用,反而有抑制效率提升的趋势。虽然数据有限,主要是时间不够长,但本文也把OTT业务创新作为外生性因素进行了研究,显示OTT业务也没有对电信业效率提升产生显著的促进作用,反而有抑制效率提升的趋势。市场化程度对电信业TFP增长率等效率具有显著的促进作用。第五、中国电信业全要素生产率增长的内生性影响因素分析。电信业从业人员的人力资本,在一定程度上可以促进技术进步进而提升TFP及TFPCH,电信业研发投入可以通过对技术进步的提升来实现对全要素生产率的提高,但对技术效率产生了负面影响,劳均资本可以有效促进电信业全要素生产率增长率、技术进步率、技术效率及进步率的提升,国际贸易与技术溢出因素可以显著提升中国电信业的全要素生产率及其增长率,进而增强中国电信业的竞争力,产业化程度可以显著提升中国的社会效益,但以牺牲经济效益为代价,移动对固定的替代率可以充分发挥移动网络密度经济性及规模性,网络外部性等特征,显著提升中国电信业的全要素生产率及其构成因素,强化中国电信的竞争力,政策性因素无论是从社会效益(用户数)的角度,还是从经济效益(业务收入)的角度来衡量,均是失败的。因此,需要一些非对称管制等新政策的实施来彻底改变目前的不均衡状态。本文研究初步对中国电信业的效率及影响因素进行了较系统的研究,具有一定的理论和现实意义,但是由于时间和资源获取等方面的限制,还存在诸多不足之处。将在以后的工作、学习过程中进一步进行深入研究。
[Abstract]:After the restructuring of the telecommunications industry and the issuance of 3G licenses in 2008, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom have all become full business telecom operators. In 2013, the issuance of 4G licenses will undoubtedly stimulate another round of investment boom in the telecommunications industry and promote more intense competition in the telecommunications industry. However, the China Telecom operation before and after the reform What is the competitiveness of the business? Is it improved and how to improve its international competitiveness? Is the growth of the China Telecom industry dependent on investment driven or efficiency promotion? How to adapt to the new situation in the face of the new economic development environment of the country and the world, the China Telecom industry has carried out an empirical research on the reform and efficiency of the China Telecom industry. The research work can not only expand the connotation of the theoretical research of the China Telecom industry, but also analyze and describe the development path of the China Telecom industry, thus producing practical significance for the future development.
This paper has combed the relevant literature at home and abroad, based on the qualitative research and quantitative research, and equally important application of normative and empirical research, the selection of non parameter, stochastic frontier production function and other advanced mathematical methods, the research on the technical efficiency (static) and total factor productivity growth (dynamic) of the China Telecom industry (dynamic) In the end, we analyze the overall regional analysis from the business volume and the number of users, and then further analyze the internal and external factors, and examine the influence of the telecommunications reform on the growth of the China Telecom industry and the driving force of the growth of the telecom industry.
First, a summary of the related theories and methods. First, it introduces the development process and the general situation of the China Telecom industry, analyzes the background, purpose and significance of this study, and then gives the content of this study.
Second, China Telecom industry reform, regional differences and technical efficiency research. First of all, the BC2 model based on DEA is selected. Secondly, the three phase DEA model, which excludes external factors, is used to evaluate the output and social benefits based on the economic efficiency, and the China Telecom industry 2000-2012, respectively. The efficiency of the year was analyzed. Finally, the technical efficiency, the pure technical efficiency and the scale efficiency were compared and analyzed from three aspects such as the telecom reform policy, the telecom reform stage and the regional difference. The main contributors of technical efficiency are scale efficiency, and the rate of pure technology inefficiency is the direct cause of technological inefficiency, and the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency have obvious regional characteristics, and the external environment is the main reason that affects the difference of pure technology efficiency.
Third, the China Telecom industry reform, the total factor productivity and regional differences. Using the non parametric Malmquist index and the parameters of the SFA two methods, the changes in the total factor productivity of the China Telecom industry in the period of 2001-2012 years are calculated. On the basis of further analysis of their temporal characteristics and spatial differences, the evolution rules of the differences are deeply analyzed. And the internal mechanism, and the empirical analysis of the impact of economic system reform on the growth of the telecommunications industry. In general, the 2001-2012 year China Telecom business volume and total factor productivity have shown greater growth, and the increase of telecom business volume is mainly caused by the increase of total factor productivity, and has completed the transformation from investment driven to efficiency driven. The growth of total factor productivity is mainly caused by technological progress, and the change of technical efficiency is small, and the efficiency of scale is basically in the state of scale and efficiency, which has a weak growth. In the long run, the telecom reform measures have a promoting effect on the growth of TFP, but the growth rate of the output is slow, and the technological progress, the technical efficiency, the scale efficiency and so on are short. According to the analysis of the time series characteristics, the TFP growth shows that the China Telecom industry shows a distinct stage performance, the technological progress and the technical efficiency have an interactive effect, although the effect of technical efficiency is relatively small, this stage characteristic is corresponding to the reform of the China Telecom industry, but the new characteristics are also presented. It is found that the 2011-2012 stage of the 2011-2012 stages of technological progress has slowed down, and shows the negative impact of technical efficiency. The rapid development of the corresponding OTT business has become an explanation. From the aspect of spatial (regional) characteristics, the TFP growth rate of the telecom industry in various provinces of the China Telecom has a large spatial difference, and the eastern, middle and western regions show a significant level of development. The level of telecom industry in the west is lower than that of the eastern region, but the pursuit effect is obvious. The trend of "club" convergence appears in the three major regions of East, middle and western regions. Further, on the basis of 2001-2012 year continuous data analysis, this paper tries to combine the mixed ownership reform of the current hot spot, and tries to make the mixed ownership of the future telecom industry in China tentatively. Suggestions were put forward in the reform.
Fourth, analysis of exogenous factors affecting the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in the China Telecom industry. Using panel regression to analyze the exogenous factors affecting the total factor productivity (TFP). It is pointed out that the level of economic development and the degree of industrialization have promoted the increase of the TFP growth rate in telecom industry to a certain extent, and the population size and population density to the telecommunications industry. The efficiency and growth rate have a positive positive effect on the promotion. Both human capital and technological innovation have no significant promotion effect on the efficiency promotion of telecom industry, but have a tendency to inhibit efficiency. Although the data are limited, the main reason is that the time is not long enough, but this paper also studies the OTT industry innovation as an exogenous factor, showing OT The T business has not significantly promoted the efficiency of the telecommunications industry, but has a tendency to increase its efficiency. The degree of marketization has a significant effect on the efficiency of the TFP growth rate of the telecom industry.
Fifth, the analysis of endogenous factors affecting the growth of total factor productivity in China Telecom industry. The human capital of the employees of the telecom industry can promote technological progress to improve the TFP and TFPCH to some extent. The investment in R & D of telecom industry can improve the total factor productivity by improving the technological progress, but it is productive for the technology efficiency. With negative impact, labor capital can effectively promote the total factor productivity growth rate, technological progress rate, technical efficiency and progress rate. International trade and technology spillovers can significantly enhance the total factor productivity and growth rate of the China Telecom industry, and then enhance the competitiveness of the China Telecom industry and the degree of industrialization. In order to significantly improve the social benefits of China, but at the expense of economic benefits, the mobility of the fixed rate of substitution can give full play to the economy and scale of the mobile network density, the externality of the network and so on. It can significantly improve the total factor productivity of the China Telecom industry and its constituent factors, strengthen the competitiveness of the China Telecom, and have no policy factors. It is a failure from the point of view of social benefits (the number of users) or from the perspective of economic benefits (business income). Therefore, the implementation of some new policies such as asymmetric control is needed to completely change the current imbalance.
This paper makes a systematic research on the efficiency and influencing factors of the China Telecom industry. It has a certain theoretical and practical significance, but there are still many shortcomings due to the limitation of time and resource acquisition. It will be further studied in the future work and in the process of learning.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F632

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