山东省水资源非农化驱动因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 15:30

本文关键词：山东省水资源非农化驱动因素研究　出处：《山东农业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年在山东省水资源非农化速度和规模不断扩大的现实情况下,水资源利用的经济价值得以提高,也满足了非农经济的用水需求,同时在优化配置水资源,实现利用效益最大化方面对我省水资源管理有着重要的作用。但是,许多问题也随之产生,比如水资源非农化的过度会引发粮食安全、破坏生态环境,损害水资源出让方的利益等。面对这些负面效应本文分别从理论分析和实证分析的角度探讨了山东省不同驱动因素对水资源非农化的作用。通过查阅大量的文献资料以及吸取国内外研究学者的成果,总结并提炼出一套针对山东省现实情况的水资源非农化驱动因素体系,并采用主成分分析法和多元线性回归对其进行实证分析,从八个驱动因素中提取了五个具有主要影响作用的公共因子,从研究中可以发现:(1)根据近10年山东省17地市的相关数据,可以看出不同地区水资源非农化程度存在差异,各因素对不同地区的影响不同,并且随着时间的推移,非农化的趋势越来越显著。(2)各驱动因素对山东省水资源非农化的作用方向存在差异。其中经济增长、城镇化、产业结构变化、水资源利用比较收益、生态环境改善和水资源禀赋都对水资源非农化有正向促进作用;而人口增长和有效灌溉水平对水资源非农化具有抑制作用,近十年人口非农化趋势显著且表现出结构性的变化特征,同时伴随着人口的增长引起了对粮食的需求不断加大,从而需要扩大农业生产,投入更多的水资源,而有效灌溉水平也决定了农业用水的投入量,两者都在一定程度上抑制了水资源非农化加剧的趋势。(3)各驱动因素对山东省水资源非农化的作用程度不同。经济增长和城镇化对其具有显著的正向推进作用,而产业结构变化、水资源利用比较收益、生态环境改善和水资源禀赋都对水资源非农化有促进的作用,但是影响程度较小,其中由非农业产值变化和水资源利用比较收益在内的产业结构因子影响效果更小,主要考虑到农业内部的结构调整及地方政府的行为导致水资源利用比较收益发生变化从而弱化了产业结构因子对其的作用效果;而对水资源非农化具有抑制作用的人口增长因素和有效灌溉水平因素的影响程度也不一样,前者较后者来说,作用效果更强。通过以上研究结果,本文结合各驱动因素的作用方向和作用效果,根据新时代的发展要求为实现山东省水资源的合理配置提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, in Shandong Province, the economic value of water resources utilization has been improved, and the water demand of non-agricultural economy has also been met, while the optimal allocation of water resources has been achieved under the situation of the expanding speed and scale of water resources in Shandong Province. Realizing the maximization of utilization benefits plays an important role in the management of water resources in our province. However, many problems also arise, such as excessive non-agricultural water resources will lead to food security, damage to the ecological environment. In the face of these negative effects, this paper discusses the effects of different driving factors on non-agricultural water resources in Shandong Province from the angle of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Data and draw on the achievements of domestic and foreign scholars. Summarize and extract a set of non-agricultural driving factors system of water resources in Shandong Province, and use principal component analysis and multiple linear regression to carry out empirical analysis. Five major public factors were extracted from the eight driving factors. From the study, we found that: 1) based on the relevant data of 17 cities in Shandong Province in the past 10 years. It can be seen that there are differences in the degree of non-agricultural water resources in different regions, and the influence of different factors on different regions is different, and with the passage of time. The trend of non-agricultural development is becoming more and more significant. (2) different driving factors have different effects on non-agricultural water resources in Shandong Province. Among them, economic growth, urbanization, changes in industrial structure, and comparative benefits of water resources utilization. The improvement of ecological environment and the endowment of water resources have positive effects on the non-agricultural water resources. Population growth and effective irrigation level can inhibit the non-agricultural water resources. The trend of population non-agricultural in the last ten years is significant and shows structural characteristics. At the same time, with the growth of population, the demand for food is increasing, which requires the expansion of agricultural production and the investment of more water resources, and the level of effective irrigation also determines the amount of agricultural water input. Both of them have restrained to some extent the increasing trend of non-agricultural water resources. The effect of driving factors on non-agricultural water resources in Shandong Province is different. Economic growth and urbanization have a significant positive impact on the development of water resources in Shandong Province. The changes of industrial structure, the comparative benefits of water resources utilization, the improvement of ecological environment and the endowment of water resources all promote the non-agricultural conversion of water resources, but to a lesser extent. Among them, the effect of industrial structure factors, including the change of non-agricultural output value and the comparative benefit of water resources utilization, is smaller. The main consideration is that the structural adjustment of agriculture and the behavior of local government lead to the change of comparative income of water resources utilization, which weakens the effect of industrial structure factor on it. But the influence degree of population growth factor and effective irrigation level factor is not the same, the former is more effective than the latter. Combined with the direction and effect of each driving factor, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for realizing the rational allocation of water resources in Shandong Province according to the development requirements of the new era.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.213

【参考文献】