决策偏好不确定条件下群体决策收敛一致性研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 21:34

本文选题：偏好不确定　切入点：动态群体决策　出处：《运筹与管理》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：决策个体之间交互影响是达成群体一致意见的重要因素。本文引入决策个体决策偏好的不确定性以及个体间不对称的影响权重,以此为基础建立群体决策动态观点演化模型,并进行matlab仿真。文中取决策个体的偏好不确定性为常数,作为决策个体对自身观点确定性的大致考量,并把群体中所有决策者的决策偏好不确定性分为相同和不相同两种情况来讨论。仿真实例证明:决策个体观点的不确定性是最终影响群体决策一致性的重要因素,当决策个体偏好不确定性较大时,决策群体更容易得到一致意见;当偏好不确定性较小时,决策群体难以达成一致意见,最终形成几个观点簇;在初始观点分布均匀的情况下,群体观点最终会演化出怎样的观点形态,是由群体中观点不确定性较小的群体所持有的观点决定的。研究内容有助于理解群体决策中一致观点的演化规律,能够为群体决策的引导策略提供参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:The interaction between decision makers is an important factor to reach a consensus. In this paper, the uncertainty of decision preference and the influence weight of individual asymmetry are introduced to establish a dynamic viewpoint evolution model of group decision making. Matlab simulation is carried out. In this paper, the uncertainty of decision making individual's preference is taken as the constant, which is taken as the general consideration of the decision making individual's own opinion certainty. The uncertainty of decision preference of all decision makers in the group is divided into the same and different cases. The simulation example shows that the uncertainty of decision makers' viewpoint is an important factor that ultimately affects the consistency of group decision making. When the individual preference uncertainty is greater, the decision-making group is more likely to get consensus; when the preference uncertainty is small, it is difficult for the decision group to reach an agreement, and finally several opinion clusters are formed. It is determined by the opinion held by the group with less uncertainty about the viewpoint that the group view will eventually evolve. The research content is helpful to understand the evolution law of the consensus view in the group decision making. It can provide reference and reference for the guiding strategy of group decision making.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学工商管理学院;广东外语外贸大学语言工程与计算实验室;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(14YJA630078) 广东省教育厅青年创新人才类项目(2015KQNCX038)
【分类号】：C934

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