我国城镇中老年劳动者退休决策行为分析——基于Cox比例风险模型

发布时间：2018-05-18 03:20

本文选题：延迟退休 + 提前退休　；参考：《天府新论》2017年03期

【摘要】：在老龄化加速发展背景下,延迟退休政策的实施势在必然。我国劳动者的退休决策长期受到社会保险制度所提供经济激励的"拉动",受到劳动力市场制度的"推动",以及诸多个人因素的驱动,呈现出多样化的形态。本文运用生存分析方法,通过Cox比例风险模型对CHARLS数据库相关样本的实证分析显示,年龄、性别、教育水平、工作单位、养老保障、经济状况等个人和制度因素在不同程度上影响着我国劳动者的退休决策。我国劳动者对其退休决策的自主权较为有限,退休制度难以适应劳动者的客观需求。渐进延迟退休政策的推进过程中需要通过经济手段与适度的政策引导来优化对劳动者退休决策的影响和激励,建议引入更具灵活性的退休政策配套机制,以更好地适应劳动者多元化的老年就业—退休需求。
[Abstract]:Under the background of accelerated development of aging, the implementation of delayed retirement policy is inevitable. For a long time, Chinese workers' retirement decisions are "pulled" by the economic incentives provided by the social insurance system, "pushed" by the labor market system, and driven by many individual factors, showing a diversified form. This paper applies the survival analysis method, through the Cox proportional risk model to the CHARLS database related samples empirical analysis shows that age, sex, education level, work unit, old-age security, Personal and institutional factors, such as economic status, affect the retirement decision of Chinese workers to varying degrees. Chinese workers have limited autonomy in their retirement decisions, and the retirement system is difficult to meet the objective needs of workers. In the process of advancing the gradual delayed retirement policy, it is necessary to optimize the influence and incentive on the worker's retirement decision through economic means and appropriate policy guidance. It is suggested that a more flexible retirement policy supporting mechanism should be introduced. In order to better adapt to the diversified employment of the elderly-retirement needs.
【作者单位】：四川大学公共管理学院;西南财经大学老龄化与社会保障研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“延迟退休对不同职业群体退休行为的影响效应及配套机制研究”(编号:16CRK019) 国家自然科学基金项目“弹性退休制度的决策机理及约束条件研究”(编号:71373211) 四川大学中央高校基本业务费项目“我国延迟退休背景下养老保险弹性领取机制研究”(编号:skq201606)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C913.6;C934

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