地区就业岗位的创造——制造业对服务业的就业乘数效应

发布时间：2018-01-19 12:20

本文关键词： 制造业服务业就业岗位乘数效应门限效应　出处：《中国人口科学》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章使用2003~2015年城市面板数据考察了制造业就业的变化对本地服务业就业的带动作用,在使用工具变量法克服内生性后发现,制造业对服务业的短期就业乘数为1.1,长期就业乘数为0.57,西部地区的就业乘数效应最大,中部地区次之,东部地区最小,相对于生活性服务业和公共服务业,制造业对生产性服务业的带动作用最大。不同劳动力市场状况下乘数效应存在异质性。劳动力市场越灵活、主体规模越大,就业乘数越大,而生活成本的上升会降低地区就业乘数。因此,文章建议切实实施制造强国战略,促进制造业与服务业深度融合;提高劳动力市场的灵活性,促进人力资源合理配置;进一步提升劳动者的素质,打造更多的区域就业中心。
[Abstract]:This paper uses urban panel data from 2003 to 2015 to investigate the driving effect of manufacturing employment on employment in local service industry. It is found that the instrumental variable method is used to overcome endogenous employment. The short-term employment multiplier of manufacturing industry to service industry is 1.1, the long-term employment multiplier is 0.57, the employment multiplier effect of western region is the biggest, the middle region is the second, and the eastern region is the smallest. Compared with the living service industry and the public service industry, the manufacturing industry plays the most important role in promoting producer services. Under different labor market conditions, the multiplier effect exists heterogeneity. The more flexible the labor market, the larger the main body size. The bigger the employment multiplier is, the lower the cost of living will be. Therefore, it is suggested that the strategy of manufacturing power should be implemented to promote the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries. Improve the flexibility of the labor market and promote the rational allocation of human resources; Further improve the quality of workers, create more regional employment centers.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“中国经济下行阶段就业结构调整与防范失业战略研究”(编号:16ZDA026)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F249.21;F424;F719
【正文快照】： 一、引言近年来,随着经济发展进入新常态和供给侧结构性改革的深入推进,稳定就业已成为政府更加优先的目标。在三大产业中,服务业对就业的吸纳能力最强,但服务业不能脱离制造业而单独存在,现代服务业和先进制造业的良性互动才是推动经济增长的引擎。目前中国的就业空间分布情

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