人口迁移、生育率及人口稳定状态的老龄化问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 11:53

本文选题：更替水平 + 权衡　；参考：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年10期

【摘要】：人口生育率已经大大低于更替水平,中国陷入了"超低生育率"陷阱,而人口预期寿命的延长将会进一步加重人口老龄化格局。从欧洲16国家的人口政策来看,一方面,均鼓励国民生育,因此,国民的生育会被认为是一种丰厚的"福利";另一方面,他们均采取了移民来改变人口老龄化问题。但是,对于中国这样一个人口基数大、老龄化速度迅猛的发展中国家,是否也可以在一定意义上有所启示呢?鉴于此,笔者引入了一个静态开放式的人口模型,对人口迁移率和生育率做一个权衡和取舍。通过对中欧各国人口年龄结构,人口迁移率及人口生育率的测算与对比结果,发现人口迁移能够减轻移入国家和区域的人口老龄化程度;有人口迁入的国家,其人口老龄化有较强的减弱效应,人口年龄结构将会达到一个均衡的状态。移民可以在很大程度上提高人口增长率,会使得人口的年龄分布更加年轻化。这对于中国人口老龄化的缓解具有很强的借鉴意义,笔者从在适当的范围内提高中国内部人口的生育率和适度"高技术"移民政策这两个视角提出了解决中国人口老龄化问题的建议,即一方面,应该在适当的范围内提高中国内部人口的生育率。选择适当的生育模式,进一步落实父母"单独"家庭的"二孩"的生育政策;另一方面,政府应制定各种吸引政策,鼓励国外高素质人力资源移民中国,更好的完善人力资源结构。
[Abstract]:The fertility rate is well below replacement level, China is trapped in the "ultra-low fertility" trap, and the prolonged life expectancy of the population will further aggravate the aging pattern of the population. In terms of the population policies of 16 European countries, on the one hand, the population is encouraged to have children, so the national fertility is regarded as a kind of rich "welfare"; on the other hand, they all adopt immigration to change the aging of the population. However, for China, a large population base, the rapid aging rate of developing countries, whether in a certain sense can also enlighten? In view of this, the author introduces a static open population model to make a trade-off between migration rate and fertility rate. Through the measurement and comparison of the age structure, migration rate and fertility rate of the population in the Central European countries, it is found that the migration can reduce the aging degree of the population in the countries and regions; the countries with the migration of the population, The aging population has a strong weakening effect, and the age structure of the population will reach a balanced state. Immigrants can greatly increase the rate of population growth, making the age distribution of the population younger. This is of great significance for the mitigation of the aging population in China. From the perspective of raising the fertility rate of China's internal population and moderate "high-tech" immigration policy within an appropriate range, the author puts forward some suggestions to solve the problem of population aging in China, that is, on the one hand, The fertility rate of China's internal population should be raised within an appropriate range. To further implement the "second child" policy of parents "alone" families by choosing appropriate birth patterns; on the other hand, the government should formulate various attracting policies to encourage high-quality human resources from abroad to emigrate to China. Better improve the human resources structure.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学公共管理学院;南京财经大学城市发展研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“社会救助与促进就业互动机制的构建”(编号:71003045) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目江苏省“青蓝工程”资助项目江苏省333工程资助项目江苏省政府留学奖学金资助项目
【分类号】：C924.24

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