“单独二孩”政策的人口红利效应分析——以湖北省为例

发布时间：2018-06-08 01:52

本文选题：“单独二孩”政策 + 人口红利　；参考：《中南财经政法大学学报》2014年05期

【摘要】："单独二孩"政策广受社会关注,其中一个重要原因就是社会普遍认为其可以延长人口红利的持续期。本文基于人口红利的三维分析框架,结合湖北省实施"单独二孩"政策的情况,首先从理论上分析了"单独二孩"政策对人口红利的影响机理,然后基于湖北省人口发展的实际情况和未来30年人口发展的预测结果,评估了"单独二孩"政策的人口红利影响。基本结论是:"单独二孩"政策对人口数量红利效应较小,但是对人口结构红利会产生积极作用,同时可持续深化人口素质红利。要继续有效实现和收获人口结构红利和人口素质红利,应尽快实现全民公共服务均等化以及对现有劳动力进行人力资源的二次开发。
[Abstract]:One of the important reasons why the "two-child alone" policy has attracted much attention is that it can extend the duration of the demographic dividend. Based on the three-dimensional analysis framework of population dividend and the situation of implementing the policy of "single two-child" in Hubei Province, this paper first analyzes theoretically the influence mechanism of "single two-child" policy on population dividend. Then, based on the actual situation of population development in Hubei province and the forecast results of population development in the next 30 years, the effect of demographic dividend of "single two-child" policy is evaluated. The basic conclusion is that the policy of "single two-child" has little effect on the dividend of population quantity, but it has a positive effect on the dividend of population structure, and at the same time, it can continue to deepen the dividend of population quality. In order to realize and harvest the dividend of population structure and population quality effectively, we should realize the equalization of public service for all and the second development of human resources to the existing labor force as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;湖北省人口与发展研究中心;中南民族大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“完善人口和计划生育利益导向政策体系研究”(11&ZD038)
【分类号】：C924.21

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