基于灰色马尔科夫的引航员需求预测及队伍建设研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 06:18

本文选题：引航员 + 灰色预测　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在港口的运行中,引航起着不可或缺的关键作用,是港口运行的起点和终点。随着我国经济的快速发展,对外贸易量激增,国内各大港口吞吐量连年增加,同时由于船舶趋于大型化,安全标准提高,导致船舶操作难度加大,危险系数增加,给港口引航工作带来了更高的挑战。引航员作为引航站的核心,建设一支稳定的、年青的、高素质的引航员队伍,合理的规划引航员需求数量,既能满足引航站引航业务的需要,又能最大程度的节约人力资源。为促进引航站持续稳定发展,保障港口的正常高效运作,引航员需求预测及队伍建设研究对引航站的发展有着重要的意义。本文旨在对引航站引航员的需求分析及配备提供科学的计算依据,同时也通过对深圳引航站引航员队伍建设进行分析,为国内其他引航站引航员队伍建设提供一个参考思路。文章首先介绍了灰色预测模型、马尔科夫预测模型及灰色马尔科夫预测模型的相关知识,然后分析了我国引航站队伍建设具体情况,并以深圳港引航站为例,详细说明了引航站引航员需求预测及队伍建设的过程。在对深圳港引航站引航员数量预测及队伍建设的计算和分析中,首先利用灰色马尔科夫预测模型根据深圳引航站的历史引航艘次数据,通过计算得出了 2020年、2030年的船舶引航艘次预测值;然后,根据预测值及深圳港引航站的调度值班制度计算得出2020年、2030年的引航员需求数量;最后,通过对深圳引航站引航员的年龄结构、职称结构、学历结构等相关因素进行分析,结合预测引航员需求预测结果,为深圳港引航站在未来15年内的引航员配备方面给出了具体的配备方案,同时,有针对性地提出了深圳引航站的队伍建设中遇到的问题并给出具体建议。
[Abstract]:Pilotage plays an indispensable key role in port operation and is the starting and ending point of port operation. With the rapid development of China's economy, the volume of foreign trade has increased sharply, and the throughput of the major domestic ports has increased year after year. At the same time, because ships tend to become large and safety standards are raised, the difficulty of ship operation and the risk coefficient increase. It brings higher challenges to the pilotage work of the port. As the core of pilotage station, pilots should build a stable, young and high quality pilot team and plan the number of pilots reasonably, which can not only meet the needs of pilotage business, but also save human resources to the greatest extent. In order to promote the sustainable and stable development of pilot stations and ensure the normal and efficient operation of the port, the prediction of pilot demand and the study of team building are of great significance to the development of pilot stations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a scientific basis for calculating the needs and equipment of pilots at pilot stations, and at the same time, to provide a reference for the construction of pilot teams in other pilot stations in China by analyzing the construction of pilotage teams at Shenzhen pilot stations. This paper first introduces the relevant knowledge of grey prediction model, Markov prediction model and grey Markov prediction model, then analyzes the concrete situation of pilotage station construction in China, and takes the pilot station of Shenzhen Port as an example. The forecast of pilot demand and the process of team building at pilot station are described in detail. In the calculation and analysis of the number of pilots and the construction of the team at the pilotage station of Shenzhen Port, the grey Markov prediction model is first used according to the historical pilotage times data of the Shenzhen pilotage station. Through the calculation of the ship pilotage prediction value in 2020 and 2030; then, according to the forecast value and the Shenzhen port pilotage station scheduling system to calculate the number of pilot demand in 2020 and 2030; finally, By analyzing the age structure, professional title structure, educational background structure and other related factors of pilot in Shenzhen pilot station, and combining with the forecast result of pilot demand, This paper presents a concrete plan for the configuration of pilots in Shenzhen Port pilot Station in the next 15 years. At the same time, the problems encountered in the construction of the pilotage station in Shenzhen are put forward and some concrete suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U692

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