基于教育部评价指标的高校发展仿真模型建立与应用研究

发布时间：2018-08-05 18:07

【摘要】：高校管理是一项涉及多层面、多要素变量的复杂系统,教育部建立高校评价指标体系对各高校现发展水平进行评价,促进国家教育发展.如何建立科学的评价指标体系?如何提高评价效应已有很多研究.但,未来发展仿真研究很少,因此,进行依据评价指标建立仿真方程、建立可靠性高的仿真模型研究很有意义.本文运用逐树设撤关联数结构行为检验建模法,基于教育部高校评价指标体系建立6个流位流率对构成的流位流率系;分别应用流率历史枝、主撑枝、条件枝法构建6棵流率入树基本结构,基于历史数据建立流率历史枝变量仿真方程;基于教育部高校评价指标的内涵等式建立刻画未来发展的主撑枝变量的仿真方程,基于表函数、延迟函数等建立条件枝变量仿真方程;通过设撤关联数分别进行T1(t)、T1(t)T2(t)、…、T1(t)T2(t)T3(t)…T6(t)各入树组合的结构行为检验,提高模型的可靠性,构建了高校管理系统的系统动力学(SD)评价仿真模型.通过高校最重要人力资源教师发展规划实施调控函数的不同调控参数下分别进行全系统仿真,分别揭示十二五、十三五期间各年满足教育部评价指标的教师数、在校生数、校建面积、教学设备、专业、收支差的数据复杂定量变化结果.为典型高校未来发展提供了具普遍意义的决策依据,为基于评价指标建立仿真方程,为提高仿真模型可靠性提供了新方法.
[Abstract]:The management of colleges and universities is a complex system involving multi-level and multi-factor variables. The Ministry of Education has established an evaluation index system to evaluate the present development level of colleges and universities to promote the development of national education. How to establish a scientific evaluation index system? There have been many studies on how to improve the evaluation effect. However, there is little research on simulation in the future. Therefore, it is meaningful to establish simulation equations and establish simulation models with high reliability according to the evaluation index. In this paper, based on the evaluation index system of colleges and universities of the Ministry of Education, six stream potential flow rate systems are established by using tree-by-tree correlation number structure behavior test modeling method, which are respectively applied to flow rate historical branch, main support branch, and so on. Based on the conditional branch method, the basic structure of 6 flow rate trees is constructed, the simulation equations of historical branch variables are established based on historical data, and the simulation equations of main branch variables describing the future development are established based on the connotation equation of the evaluation index of colleges and universities of the Ministry of Education. Based on table function, delay function and so on, the simulation equations of conditional branch variables are established, and T1 (t) / T1 (t) T2 (t),. T 1 (t) T 2 (t) T 3 (t). In order to improve the reliability of T6 (t), the system dynamics (SD) evaluation simulation model of the university management system is constructed by testing the structure behavior of each tree combination of T6 (t) and improving the reliability of the model. Through the full system simulation under the different regulation parameters of the most important human resources teachers' development planning in colleges and universities, it is revealed that the number of teachers and students who meet the evaluation index of the Ministry of Education in each year during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan period, and the number of students in the school. School area, teaching equipment, professional, income and expenditure data complex quantitative change results. It provides a general decision basis for the future development of typical colleges and universities, establishes simulation equations based on evaluation indexes, and provides a new method for improving the reliability of simulation models.
【作者单位】：石家庄幼儿师范高等专科学校;南昌大学系统工程研究所;河北师范大学信息技术学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71261018,71461010,71463037) 河北省教育科学研究规划课题(1503013)
【分类号】：G647;N941.3

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