国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险测度研究

发布时间：2019-01-07 07:49

【摘要】：针对当前国际水电工程项目群施工资源易发生冲突的情形,提出了基于云模型的资源冲突风险测度方法。明确了国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险的概念,建立了包括人力资源、机械设备、材料、财务、组织协作和现场条件6个一级风险因子及20个二级风险因子的资源冲突风险因子体系;采用云模型和德尔菲法确定每个风险因子对应的权重云,并运用逆向云发生器和正态云拟合运算规则求得定性因子的综合云。用建立的模型对国际某水电工程项目群的资源冲突风险进行测度,结果表明该项目群的资源冲突风险状态为良好。由构建的国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险测度模型能较好地获得了资源冲突风险的测度值,为我国水电企业更好地进行国际工程项目群风险管理提供了参考价值。
[Abstract]:In view of the current situation that construction resources of international hydropower project groups are prone to conflict, a method of measuring resource conflict risk based on cloud model is proposed. The concept of resource conflict risk in international hydropower project cluster is defined, including human resources, mechanical equipment, materials, finance, etc. The resource conflict risk factor system of 6 first-level risk factors and 20 second-level risk factors; The weight cloud corresponding to each risk factor is determined by cloud model and Delphi method, and the synthetic cloud of qualitative factor is obtained by using inverse cloud generator and normal cloud fitting operation rule. The model is used to measure the resource conflict risk of an international hydropower project group. The results show that the resource conflict risk state of the project group is good. The risk measurement model of international hydropower project group resource conflict can obtain the value of resource conflict risk, which provides reference value for Chinese hydropower enterprises to better carry out international hydropower project group risk management.
【作者单位】：三峡大学湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室;三峡大学水利与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379110) 水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金项目(2014KSD05)
【分类号】：TV51

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