我国房地产行业资金链危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 05:45

本文关键词：我国房地产行业资金链危机预警研究　出处：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国房地产行业是国民经济的支柱产业,涉及上下游产业达50多个行业,房地产行业的良好运作不仅可以带动相关产业的发展,还能改善整个社会的就业情况。房地产公司是资金密集型公司,需要大量资金以获取土地资源及投入项目开发建设。由于房地产行业受政策调控影响大,存在很多不可控的不确定性因素,且公司项目开发周期长、资金回笼速度慢,房地产公司良好的资金循环状况成为公司顺利开发项目的根本保障。面对宏观经济波动和国家对房地产市场的调控,房地产公司的经营不确定性在增加,资金链断裂的风险在上升。本文借助房地产公司具体情况,对公司资金链的现状、影响因素进行分析,并建立危机预警模型,进而对房地产公司如何防范资金链危机提出对策建议。本文主要运用SPSS统计分析软件,对2007—2009年我国房地产行业A股市场符合条件的144个样本展开研究。通过对预警指标的显著性检验和因子分析,本文最终对6个主成分因子和4个非财务指标变量进行Logistic回归分析,建立预警模型,从而预测公司是否会发生资金链危机。根据以上研究,本文得到如下结论：(1)盈利能力、偿债能力方面的财务指标和非财务指标中的3个股权结构类指标和审计意见指标在危机样本组和正常样本组之间存在显著差异,现金流量方面的财务指标、控股股东类别、董事会结构和管理层持股指标在两组样本中不存在显著差异；(2)Logistic回归结果表明6个主成分因子预警指标对上市房地产公司资金链危机发生与否都存在显著影响,而4个非财务指标变量对危机发生与否不存在显著影响,最后得到资金链危机预警模型的判定准确率为75.70%；(3)对房地产公司资金链状况影响较大的因素有盈利能力、偿债能力、营运资金管理效率和营业收入增长率。最后,本文为房地产公司如何防范资金链危机提出对策建议,希望能给房地产公司经营管理者提供帮助,并使得整个房地产行业健康、稳定发展。
[Abstract]:China's real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, involving more than 50 upstream and downstream industries, the good operation of the real estate industry can not only promote the development of related industries. It can also improve the employment situation of the whole society. Real estate companies are capital-intensive companies, which need a lot of funds to obtain land resources and invest in the development and construction of projects. There are many uncontrollable uncertainty factors, and the company project development cycle is long, the speed of capital return is slow. In the face of macroeconomic fluctuations and the regulation of the real estate market, the operating uncertainty of real estate companies is increasing. The risk of a financial chain break is on the rise. With the help of the specific situation of real estate companies, this paper analyzes the current situation and influencing factors of the company's capital chain, and establishes a crisis warning model. And then put forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent the crisis of capital chain in real estate companies. This paper mainly uses SPSS statistical analysis software. This paper studies 144 samples of A share market of real estate industry in China from 2007 to 2009. Through the significance test and factor analysis of early warning index. In this paper, Logistic regression analysis is carried out on 6 principal component factors and 4 non-financial index variables, and an early warning model is established to predict whether the company will have a financial chain crisis or not. Based on the above research, this paper draws the following conclusion: 1) profitability. There are significant differences between the financial indicators of solvency and the three equity structure indicators and audit opinion indicators of non-financial indicators between the crisis sample group and the normal sample group, and the financial indicators of cash flow. There is no significant difference in the categories of controlling shareholders, the structure of board of directors and the index of managerial shareholding in the two groups; The logistic regression results show that there is a significant impact on the risk of capital chain crisis of listed real estate companies. However, four non-financial index variables have no significant influence on the occurrence of the crisis. Finally, the accuracy of the early-warning model of the financial chain crisis is 75.70. The factors that have great influence on the capital chain of real estate companies are profitability, solvency, working capital management efficiency and growth rate of operating income. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for real estate companies to prevent the crisis of capital chain, hoping to provide help to the managers of real estate companies and make the whole real estate industry develop healthily and steadily.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.42;F224

【参考文献】