我国房地产价格与人民币汇率联动效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 02:21

本文关键词：我国房地产价格与人民币汇率联动效应研究　出处：《安徽财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产价格主要受到房地产市场上的消费者、投资者、房地产开发商、商业银行、地方政府和中央政府等各方面的影响,而人民币汇率与房地产价格又是决定国外房地产投资者投资行为选择的主要因素。国外投资者及由其引致的国内房地产投资者因为国内房价和人民币汇率的预期升值,而大量投资资本进入国内房地产市场,在短期房地产供给一定的情况下,国内房地产价格将大幅度上涨,这又会吸引大量资本流入房市。此外,大量国际资本流入迫使人民币存在巨大的升值压力。在房价及汇率双重预期升值的情况下,使得房价和人民币汇率之间存在一种相互推高的影响关系。可是,当房价及人民币汇率升高到一定程度的时候,政府政策的改变以及市场预期的变化又会使得房地产市场上的国内外投资者大量逃离,造成房地产市场及资本市场的波动,从而影响到金融市场甚至是社会经济的健康稳定发展。本文研究内容主要是通过对现有文献饿梳理找出本文的研究切入点,并在此基础上分析房地产市场各类主体对房地产价格影响的机理,并构建相关函数模型,最终在此基础上构建房价与汇率的动态关系模型。在实证部分运用VAR对理论模型进行实证检验,检验结果显示房价与人民币汇率间存在显著的影响关系,并提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Real estate prices are mainly affected by the real estate market, consumers, investors, real estate developers, commercial banks, local governments and the central government influence in all aspects, and the RMB exchange rate and real estate price is the main factor to decide the choice of foreign investors in real estate investment. Foreign investors and the cause of the domestic real estate investors because of domestic prices and the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise, while a large number of investment capital into the domestic real estate market in the short term, the supply of real estate under certain circumstances, the domestic real estate prices will greatly rise, it will attract large inflows of capital market. In addition, a large number of international capital inflows forcing the renminbi there is a huge pressure of appreciation. In house prices and the appreciation of the exchange rate is expected to double, so that there is a mutual influence of pushing up the relationship between house prices and the RMB exchange rate. However, when the real The price and the RMB exchange rate increased to a certain extent, change government policies and changes in market expectations will make the real estate market on the domestic and foreign investors fled, resulting in the real estate market and capital market volatility, which affects the financial market and even the healthy and stable development of social economy.
The main content of this paper is based on the existing literature research to find out the starting point of this article combs the hungry, the mechanism of impact on real estate prices on the real estate market and on the basis of various subjects, and constructs the related function model, construct the dynamic relationship between prices and the exchange rate on the basis of the above model. In the empirical part of the use of VAR theory the empirical test, test results showed that there was significant relationship between house prices and the RMB exchange rate, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.6

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