南昌市住宅房地产泡沫实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 22:28

本文关键词：南昌市住宅房地产泡沫实证研究　出处：《江西理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：住宅房地产业是南昌市的支柱产业，一旦南昌市住宅房地产市场产生泡沫，将给南昌市经济发展和社会生活带来巨大的影响。因此，，考察南昌市住宅房地产市场是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度，对保证南昌市房地产市场持续健康发展有着重大的意义。本文先对房地产泡沫的概念、特征、形成原因、危害以及测度方法等相关理论进行阐述，然后运用指标体系法考察南昌市历年房地产泡沫的严重程度，最后结合实际情况提出防治房地产泡沫的政策、建议。实证研究部分是本文的核心内容。本文选定了房地产开发投资额/固定资产投资额、房价增长率/GDP增长率、房价收入比、空置率、房地产贷款增长率/金融机构贷款增长率作为测度指标，采用因子分析法确定各指标的权重。通过实证研究，可以得出以下结论：2002-2011年南昌房地产总体存在泡沫。2003年的泡沫程度最为严重。2004年、2005年、2006年和2007年都存在轻微泡沫，处于警戒区。而2008-2011年南昌房地产市场比较健康。
[Abstract]:The residential real estate industry is the pillar industry of Nanchang City, once the bubble of Nanchang city residential real estate market, will bring huge impact on the economic development and social life of Nanchang city. Therefore, the severity of Nanchang city residential real estate market bubble and bubble, is of great significance to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of Nanchang the real estate market.
The concept of the real estate bubble characteristics, causes, hazards and measures and other related theories, and then use the index system method to study the severity over the real estate bubble in Nanchang City, based on the actual situation put forward the prevention and control of the real estate bubble policy recommendations.
The part of empirical research is the core content of this paper. This paper selected the investment of real estate development and investment in fixed assets, the average growth rate of /GDP growth rate, price earnings ratio, the vacancy rate, the growth rate of real estate loans / financial institutions loan growth rate as evaluation index, using the factor analysis method to determine the weight of each index.
Through the empirical research, we can draw the following conclusions: in the 2002-2011 years, the real estate in Nanchang has a general bubble. The bubble level in.2003 is the most serious..2004 has a slight bubble in 2005, 2006 and 2007. It is in the alert area. In the 2008-2011 years, the real estate market in Shanghai is relatively healthy.

【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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