地方政府债务与土地价格泡沫的风险循环及对策建议

发布时间：2018-01-06 19:38

本文关键词：地方政府债务与土地价格泡沫的风险循环及对策建议　出处：《金融理论与实践》2014年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：地方政府债务高企与土地价格泡沫构成了风险循环,在这个风险循环中,最关键的两个环节是"稀缺性土地减少与隐性债务显性化"与"融资需求刚性"。偿债高峰伴随房地产需求下滑、流动性趋紧导致的市场融资利率上升、土地市场制度改革导致的定价权转移等因素都对这个风险循环构成一定程度的冲击。地方政府债务与土地价格泡沫的风险循环无法长期持续,"稀缺性土地减少与隐性债务显性化""融资需求刚性"将导致地方政府负债率不断提升、土地价格刚性不断强化甚至"泡沫化"。当面临偿债高峰叠加房地产需求下滑、市场融资利率上升、土地市场制度改革导致定价权转移等冲击时,应恰当应对。
[Abstract]:High local government debt and land price bubbles form a risk cycle, in which the risk cycle. The two most important links are "the reduction of scarce land and the dominance of hidden debt" and "rigidity of financing demand". The peak of debt service is accompanied by the decline of real estate demand, and the market financing interest rate increases due to tight liquidity. The transfer of pricing power caused by the reform of the land market system has a certain degree of impact on the risk cycle. The risk cycle of local government debt and land price bubble can not be sustained for a long time. "rare land reduction and recessive debt dominance" and "rigidity of financing demand" will lead to the local government debt ratio rising. The rigidity of land price is being strengthened and even "frothy". When faced with the peak of debt service and the decline of real estate demand, the market financing interest rate rises, the land market system reform leads to the transfer of pricing power, and so on, which should be properly dealt with.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行研究生部;中邮创业基金管理有限公司;
【分类号】：F812.5;F301.3
【正文快照】： 一、导致土地价格居高不下的制度性因素分析国家统计局的数据显示,2002年以来,全国范围土地成交价格以年均19.7%的复合增长率上涨,截至2013年底,单位土地价格已经由2002年底的480元/平方米上涨到2013年底的3480元/平方米,土地价格每年都处于上涨态势。图1 2002年以来土地价格

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