南昌市房地产价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 19:26

本文关键词：南昌市房地产价格影响因素研究　出处：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产的发展不仅与国民经济的发展休戚相关,而且还与老百姓的生活紧密联系。而近年来我国房地产市场在大发展的同时也出现了较多问题,其中房价上涨过猛、居民购房压力较大、部分区域房地产投资过热等问题尤其突出。南昌市作为京九铁路线上唯一的省会城市,其房地产市场也得到了快速发展,近十多年来房价一路攀升。因此,研究南昌市房价影响因素,挖掘出房价波动本因,对于加快南昌市经济建设,保持房地产市场健康发展具有重大意义。房地产价格影响因素纷繁复杂,目前没有学者专家对具体的南昌市房地产价格影响因素进行全面系统的研究。本文以2000—2012年南昌市房地产相关数据为基础,首先从房地产价格的理论出发,分析其特点、构成以及形成、传导机制。再次根据南昌市房地产市场历史价格走势与自身发展现状,从政策、成本、供求状况、经济、社会及其他因素等六大方面来进行全方位多角度的定性探讨。在定性分析的基础上,充分考虑数据的可获取性,选取能科学量化的影响因素进行实证研究,建立多元回归模型并对结果的有效性进行检验、改善,最终得出真正影响南昌市房价的具体因素为货币供应量、土地价格以及心理预期价格。最后根据定性与定量分析的结果,总结出四条相关结论,并针对当前南昌市房地产市场的现状,给出六条关于政府调控方面的建议。本文的研究结果对于把握南昌房价波动以及地方政府进行房地产价格宏观调控都有一定的参考价值,但限于篇幅与笔者研究水平,再加上数据的统计口径误差以及某些因素无法量化的原因,导致最终模型存在一定的不足之处。在未来的研究中,我会想办法进一步的努力完善。
[Abstract]:The development of real estate is not only closely related to the development of national economy, but also closely related to the life of ordinary people. Nanchang, the only provincial capital city on the Beijing-Kowloon railway line, is facing problems such as house prices rising too fast, residents under pressure to buy houses, and real estate investment overheating in parts of the region. Its real estate market has also been rapid development, housing prices have been rising in the past decade. Therefore, the study of the factors affecting housing prices in Nanchang City, unearthed the reasons for the fluctuations of house prices, for speeding up the economic construction of Nanchang City. It is of great significance to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market. The influence factors of real estate price are complicated. At present, there are no scholars and experts to carry out a comprehensive and systematic study on the specific factors affecting real estate prices in Nanchang. This paper is based on the relevant data of real estate in Nanchang from 2000 to 2012. First, from the theory of real estate prices, analysis of its characteristics, composition and formation, transmission mechanism. Thirdly, according to the historical price trend of Nanchang real estate market and its own development status, from the policy, cost, supply and demand situation. Economic, social and other factors and other six aspects to carry out a comprehensive and multi-angle qualitative discussion. On the basis of qualitative analysis, fully consider the availability of data. Select the scientific quantitative factors for empirical research, establish a multivariate regression model and test the effectiveness of the results, improve, and finally get the real impact of Nanchang City housing price is the specific factor of money supply. Finally, according to the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper summarizes four relevant conclusions, and aims at the current situation of real estate market in Nanchang. Six suggestions on government regulation and control are given. The results of this paper have some reference value to grasp the fluctuation of house prices in Nanchang and the macro-control of real estate prices by local governments, but limited to the length and the author's research level. In addition, the statistical error of data and some factors can not be quantified, resulting in the final model has some shortcomings. In the future research, I will find ways to further improve.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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