新常态下的经济形势研判和宏观政策建议

发布时间：2018-01-12 10:39

本文关键词：新常态下的经济形势研判和宏观政策建议　出处：《国家行政学院学报》2015年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2015年经济增长可能在7.1%左右。但中国经济面临以下问题:需求结构调整难,投资可能会回升,消费增长却难以加快增长,产能过剩矛盾还将加剧,实体经济经营困难依然较大,债务迅速增加和金融风险在上升,房地产市场风险在增加。建议财政政策应向积极宽松转化,做好加减法;货币政策应向真正的中性转化,保持信贷资金适度增长,支持实体经济发展;经济体制应加快改革,为稳增长创造良好的制度环境;产业结构调整既要搞好化解产能过剩,又要加快传统产业转型升级,培育扶持新兴产业发展。
[Abstract]:In 2015, economic growth may be around 7.1%. But Chinese economy is facing the following problems: the demand structure adjustment difficult, the investment may rise, consumption growth is difficult to accelerate growth, excess production capacity will also increase, the real economy management difficulty is still large, rapid increase in debt and financial risks rise, the real estate market risks increase. Suggestions fiscal policy should actively loose transformation, do subtraction; monetary policy should be neutral to the real transformation, maintain a moderate growth of credit funds to support the real economy development; economic system should speed up the reform, to create a good institutional environment for the steady growth of the industrial structure adjustment; we must do a good job in resolving overcapacity, but also accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Foster and support the development of emerging industries.

【作者单位】：国家发改委宏观经济研究院;
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 我国经济增长已经连续19个季度出现趋势性回稳增长。要稳增长既存在着有利条件和因素,也存在落。2014年第四季度经济增长速度7.4%,全年经济着不确定因素和下行压力。从国内看:有利因素:一增长预计7.4%。目前,中国经济正处于短期波动和是政府积极推进改革,加大改革开放步伐,有

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