城市综合体项目风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 02:38

本文关键词：城市综合体项目风险评估研究　出处：《浙江理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现代都市中，人们生活和工作的节奏越来越快，对于效率的追求越来越强烈。城市综合体作为一个方便、快捷、经济且集多种功能于一体的综合性空间，能够满足都市人们高效率的生活和工作需求。城市综合体的开发可使城市空间布局得以改善，城市区域更具活力，城市形象得到大幅提升，同时与单一物业投资回报相比，开发综合体使房地产企业获利更大，因此其已成为地方决策层和投资者竞相追逐的目标。但我国城市综合体项目积极立项、仓促开工建设、急于完成且缺乏比较完善的系统风险评估体系等现状，导致开发商面临着建设资金链紧张、市场难以“消化”大量综合体项目等问题。本研究的目的就是通过建立新中心区的城市综合体项目风险评价指标体系，以期对现今国内新中心区的城市综合体项目开发提供一定的科学指导，从风险控制的角度判别是否适合进行城市综合体的开发。本文首先回顾了城市综合体相关理论研究和国内外房地产项目风险管理理论研究，并对本文研究的相关概念及研究范围进行界定。其次，对新中心区的城市综合体项目风险因素进行识别，构建城市综合体风险评价指标体系，运用层次分析法确定指标权重和模糊评判法评判风险，建立城市综合体项目风险评判模型。再次，以杭州龙湖·滟澜山和宝龙城市广场项目为例，，深入进行项目开发风险分析，通过评判数据的分析对风险评价指标体系的可操作性进行验证。通过对两个综合体项目风险评价结果进行对比分析，得出龙湖·滟澜山项目总体风险处于“较低风险”等级，宝龙城市广场项目总体风险处于“中等风险”等级，这与实际情况基本相符。最后针对开发商在进行新中心区综合体项目开发过程中该如何采取风险控制措施提出具体的建议。本文研究采用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合的方法，首次构建了新中心区城市综合体的项目风险评估模型；利用建立的风险评估模型对杭州龙湖·滟澜山和杭州宝龙城市广场的开发风险进行实证研究，通过比较验证得出风险评估模型具有较好的可操作性和合理性，强调突出项目选址和开发商能力及运营在新中心区城市综合体项目开发中的重要性。
[Abstract]:In modern cities, the pace of people's life and work is getting faster and faster, and the pursuit of efficiency is becoming more and more intense. As a convenient, fast, economical and integrated space, urban complex has a variety of functions. The development of urban complex can improve the layout of urban space, the urban area is more dynamic, and the image of the city is greatly improved. At the same time, compared with the single property investment return, the development of the complex makes real estate enterprises profit more, so it has become the local decision-making level and investors chasing the target. Rush to start construction, eager to complete and lack of a more complete system risk assessment system, such as the status quo, leading to developers facing the construction funding chain is tight. It is difficult for the market to "digest" a large number of complex projects. The purpose of this study is to establish a risk evaluation index system for urban complex projects in the new central district. It is expected to provide some scientific guidance for the development of urban complex projects in the new central district of China, and to judge whether it is suitable for the development of urban complex from the point of view of risk control. Firstly, this paper reviews the related theories of urban complex and real estate project risk management at home and abroad, and defines the related concepts and research scope of this paper. The risk factors of urban complex project in the new central district are identified, the risk evaluation index system of urban complex is constructed, and the index weight is determined by AHP and the risk is evaluated by fuzzy evaluation method. The risk evaluation model of urban complex project is established. Thirdly, the project development risk analysis is carried out based on the examples of Hangzhou Longhu, Guilanshan and Baolong City Square Project. Through the analysis of the evaluation data, the feasibility of the risk evaluation index system is verified, and the risk evaluation results of the two complex projects are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that the overall risk of Longhu 路Guilanshan project is in the "low risk" grade, and the overall risk of the Baolong City Square Project is "medium risk" grade. This is basically in line with the actual situation. Finally, the author puts forward some concrete suggestions on how to take risk control measures during the development of the new central district complex project. In this paper, the method of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to construct the project risk assessment model of the urban complex in the new central district for the first time. Using the established risk assessment model to study the development risk of Hangzhou Longhu 路Guilanshan and Hangzhou Baolong City Plaza, and through the comparison and verification, it is concluded that the risk assessment model has good maneuverability and rationality. Emphasis is placed on the importance of project location, developer's ability and operation in the development of urban complex in the new central district.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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