人口转型与消费结构变迁研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 20:03

本文关键词：人口转型与消费结构变迁研究　出处：《上海经济研究》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：当下的中国正在与自己赛跑,一方面要解决人口老龄化带来的负面影响,一方面要拉动内需寻找新的经济增长点,因而探索人口转型与消费结构变迁的问题具有重要的研究意义。该文利用1995-2015年的分五岁组的人口年龄结构与消费结构数据,采用邓式灰色关联度方法测度了近20年来的人口结构与消费结构之间的动态关系,发现了2001年以后我国的消费结构与人口结构匹配失衡,居住支出占比的大幅提升不利于消费结构的优化升级,我国的消费行为是以家庭效用最大化为目的,城乡之间的消费行为差异明显等问题。提出的对策建议是:要推进供给侧结构性改革,释放消费者的有效需求;完善房地产租赁市场,降低居住支出对其他消费的挤压效应;完善社会保障制度,释放劳动年龄段人口的消费需求以及树立科学合理的消费观念,引导农村消费行为的转变。
[Abstract]:China is now in a race against itself to tackle the negative effects of an ageing population on the one hand and to stimulate domestic demand to find a new economic growth point on the other. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the problem of population transition and consumption structure change. This paper uses the age structure and consumption structure data of the five-year-old group from 1995 to 2015. This paper measures the dynamic relationship between population structure and consumption structure in recent 20 years by using Deng's grey relational degree method, and finds out the imbalance between consumption structure and population structure after 2001 in our country. The substantial increase of the proportion of residential expenditure is not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure. The purpose of consumption behavior in China is to maximize the utility of the family. The difference of consumption behavior between urban and rural areas is obvious. The countermeasures and suggestions are as follows: to promote supply-side structural reform and to release the effective demand of consumers; Perfecting the real estate rental market and reducing the squeezing effect of housing expenditure on other consumption; Improve the social security system, release the consumption demand of the working-age population, set up scientific and reasonable consumption concept, guide the transformation of rural consumption behavior.
【作者单位】：上海市公共行政与人力资源研究所;上海社会科学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目“公平、活力与可持续——老龄社会的经济特征及支持体系”(项目编号:71490734)的资助
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.1
【正文快照】： 2上海社会科学院200020)全球几乎所有的国家,都已经或者正在步入老龄社会,中国也不例外,20世纪70年代后期,我国人口年龄结构由“年轻型”转向“老年型”,到1999年正式迈入了老龄化社会。人既是经济社会中的生产者又是消费者,在人口转型过程中,部分行业的需求不断膨胀,部分行业

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