养老地产项目投资决策阶段风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 01:16

本文关键词： 养老地产投资决策风险管理　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：养老地产是在中国社会人口老龄化程度日益加剧和中国家庭结构向小型化、空巢化转变的大背景下催生的一种新型房地产开发业态。养老地产作为一种复合性地产开发模式,复合了住宅开发、商业运营、养老服务等不同的属性,以养老住宅为基础,附加了医疗、护理、康复、保健、养生、休闲娱乐等养老配套服务支持功能,依靠住宅销售、出租与经营相关物业、提供专业化养老服务等增值业务来获得投资收益。养老地产是实现中国未来居家养老、社区养老与机构养老相结合的社会化养老体系的有效载体,将推动中国养老产业的健康良性发展。由于养老地产项目投资大、回报周期长、产品业态丰富、经营模式多样等特点,造成养老地产项目与普通商业地产开发项目相比,开发过程更加复杂,投资回报的不确定性更强。再加上养老地产在中国刚刚兴起,在项目开发建设、产品规划、商业运营等方面还存在着很多不完善的地方,势必给项目投资者带来很多不确定的风险。本文通过对养老地产项目开发经营模式的分析,运用项目风险管理相关理论知识,对养老地产项目前期决策阶段的开发风险进行识别,并通过定性和定量的方法对风险进行分析、估计和评价,进而对风险进行科学处理,制定相应的风险控制措施。首先,通过对国内外养老地产开发现状的简要分析和对比,结合我国社会老龄化发展的态势,指出我国养老地产项目开发过程中存在的问题;其次,结合养老地产项目特点,分析和阐述养老地产项目具体的开发经营模式,并简要介绍各种开发经营模式的优缺点;再次,通过对项目风险管理相关理论的介绍,结合养老地产项目前期投资决策过程分析,将风险管理相关理论运用到项目决策中,对养老地产项目投资所面临的风险进行科学有效的识别,并加以分析和评价,制定相应的风险防控措施。最后,以北京某拟建的养老地产项目为例,详细阐述项目在投资决策阶段风险管理的具体过程,为有效减少和规避养老地产项目投资风险,促进养老地产健康良好的发展的提供参考。
[Abstract]:The old-age real estate is becoming more and more aging in China and the family structure is becoming smaller. Pension real estate as a complex real estate development model, the combination of residential development, commercial operations, pension services and other different attributes. Based on the old-age housing, additional medical care, nursing, rehabilitation, health care, health care, leisure entertainment and other supporting services for the elderly support function, rely on residential sales, rental and management of related properties. Providing specialized pension services and other value-added business to obtain investment income. Pension real estate is to achieve the future of China's future home pension, community pension and institutional old-age social pension system combined with an effective carrier. It will promote the healthy and benign development of the pension industry in China. Due to the large investment of pension real estate projects, the long period of return, the rich product form, the various business models and so on. Compared with ordinary commercial real estate development projects, the development process is more complex and the uncertainty of investment return is more strong. In addition, pension real estate has just emerged in China, in the project development and construction. There are still many imperfections in product planning, commercial operation and so on, which will inevitably bring a lot of uncertain risks to project investors. Using the relevant theory knowledge of project risk management, this paper identifies the development risk in the early decision-making stage of the pension real estate project, and analyzes, estimates and evaluates the risk through qualitative and quantitative methods. Then the scientific treatment of risk, formulate the corresponding risk control measures. First of all, through a brief analysis and comparison of the current situation of endowment real estate development at home and abroad, combined with the aging situation of our society. Points out the problems existing in the process of the development of the endowment real estate project in our country; Secondly, combined with the characteristics of the pension real estate project, this paper analyzes and expounds the specific development and management mode of the pension real estate project, and briefly introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the various development and management mode. Thirdly, through the introduction of the project risk management theory, combined with the pension real estate project investment decision-making process analysis, the risk management theory is applied to the project decision-making. The risks faced by the investment of pension real estate projects are scientifically and effectively identified, analyzed and evaluated, and the corresponding risk prevention and control measures are formulated. Finally, taking a planned pension real estate project in Beijing as an example. The specific process of risk management in the investment decision stage of the project is described in detail, which provides a reference for effectively reducing and avoiding the investment risk of the pension real estate project and promoting the healthy development of the pension real estate.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;D669.6

【引证文献】