货币供应量对我国房地产价格的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 01:14

本文关键词： 货币供应量房价协整分析　出处：《云南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，，我国货币供应量迅速增加，2013年3月末，我国广义货币供应量（M2）余额为103.61万亿元，突破100万亿大关，M2与GDP之比达到200%，经济的货币化现象严重。虽然，货币量巨额增加，但是我国的物价水平并不高，CPI一直在低位徘徊，纵观我国十年来的房价，2003以来，房价一路上扬。本文从伴随着我国货币供给的高速增长但是物价水平却在低位徘徊，而房价却一路高歌猛进的现象出发，考察了货币供应量对房价的影响，为我国房地产调控提供可行性建议具有显著的理论和现实意义。本文的研究目的是通过理论分析和实证研究考察货币供应量对房地产价格的影响，得出广义货币供应量、准货币、国内生产总值、城镇家庭人均可支配收入等对房价的影响方向、影响程度以及作用效果；根据理论分析和实证研究的结论提出相应的政策建议，为房地产市场的健康发展提供借鉴。本文首先对国内外相关的研究成果进行了梳理。其次对我国的货币供应情况进行了分析，重点研究了经济的货币化程度、货币结构变动及M0、M1、M2的运行轨迹，分析了货币供应迅速增加的原因，回顾了房地产的发展历程及存在问题等。然后，从理论上分析了货币供应量与房价之间的关系，从货币需求、货币供给、银行信贷等三个角度分析了货币量和房价之间的关系；阐述了货币理论，包括货币结构、货币的乘数效应等货币数量论，从货币结构的视角分析了执行资产职能的准货币对资产价格的影响。第四，在现状和理论的基础上，分别选取广义货币供应量M2、准货币QM、收入、国内生产总值以及房价等指标，通过建立计量模型实证论证了货币量与房价之间关系。最后，在理论分析和实证研究的基础上，从货币政策的视角提出了调控房价的短期建议以及通过与其他政策的配合建立房地产调控的长效机制。通过研究房价和货币量的关系，最后得出货币供给增加会引起房价的上升，货币量和房价存在长期稳定的均衡关系；国内生产总值和收入对房价也有一定的影响，GDP和收入的增加，在一定程度上推动房价上涨，但是货币供应量对房价上涨的贡献率最大。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the money supply in our country has been increasing rapidly. At the end of 2013, the balance of the broad money supply in our country was 103.61 tillion yuan, the ratio of M2 to GDP exceeded 100 tillion, and the monetization of the economy was serious. However, the price level in China is not high and CPI has been hovering at low levels. Throughout the past ten years, house prices have been rising since 2003. This paper starts with the rapid growth of the money supply in our country, but the price level hovers at low levels. On the other hand, the phenomenon that the house price is soaring all the way, the influence of the money supply on the house price has been investigated, which has significant theoretical and practical significance for providing feasible suggestions for the regulation and control of the real estate in our country. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of money supply on real estate prices through theoretical analysis and empirical research, and to obtain broad money supply, quasi-monetary, GDP, The influence direction, degree and effect of per capita disposable income of urban households on house prices, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical research to provide reference for the healthy development of the real estate market. This paper firstly combs the related research results at home and abroad, and then analyzes the situation of money supply in China, focusing on the degree of monetization of the economy, the change of monetary structure and the track of M0M1M 2. This paper analyzes the reasons for the rapid increase of money supply, reviews the development course and existing problems of real estate. Then, it theoretically analyzes the relationship between money supply and house price, from the point of money demand, money supply, money supply, etc. This paper analyzes the relationship between monetary quantity and house price from three angles, such as bank credit, and expounds the monetary theory, including monetary structure, currency multiplier effect, and so on. From the perspective of monetary structure, this paper analyzes the influence of quasi currency on asset price from the perspective of monetary structure. 4th. On the basis of current situation and theory, we select the broad money supply M2, quasi money QM, income, GDP and house prices, etc. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper empirically demonstrates the relationship between monetary quantity and house price through the establishment of econometric model. From the point of view of monetary policy, this paper puts forward some short-term suggestions for housing price control and establishes a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation through cooperation with other policies. Through the study of the relationship between house price and monetary quantity, it is concluded that the increase of money supply will lead to the rise of house price, and there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the amount of money and house price. GDP and income also have a certain impact on house prices. To a certain extent, GDP and income increase, but money supply contributes the most to the rise of house prices.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.2;F299.23

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