房价上涨与中国居民消费：财富效应还是挤出效应？

发布时间：2018-02-09 05:57

本文关键词： 房价居民消费财富效应挤出效应消费函数　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房价不断攀升且居高不下,与居民消费率水平低下,是我国目前面临的两大问题,然而我们还不能完全知道房价上涨是通过怎样的传导机制影响居民的消费,以及房价上涨是否会抑制我国居民消费。本文通过研究发现与其他商品不同的是,房地产具有特殊的二重性,既有投资品的属性,又拥有耐用消费品的属性,因此其价格的上涨对不同的家庭来说传导机制就不同。当房价上涨时,首先对于拥有住房的居民来说,房屋可以作为投资品,能将这部分收益通过转让变现或者在房产抵押市场将它抵押获得更多贷款,从而使得当期消费增加。这种房价上涨促进居民消费的效应被称为财富效应。其次对那些靠租房过日子以及准备购置房屋的人来说,首要问题是满足住房需求,住房对他们来说是耐用消费品,房价上涨会导致房租的上涨,增加他们的生活成本,同时也会增加准备购置房屋消费者的购置成本,因此这部分消费者为了支付房租和购置房屋,不得不增加他们的储蓄,从而减少了他们当期的消费。这种房价上涨抑制居民消费的效应被称为挤出效应。对于任何国家或者地区来说,房地产市场都会包括的投机或者投资者,以及靠租房过日子的人和准备购置房屋的人,他们构成了房地产市场的整体,但是房价的上涨却对他们表现出不同的效应,因此最后的房价上涨对居民消费更多是财富效应还是挤出效应需要研究和分析。通过文献梳理发现,国内外许多学者利用不同的宏观数据和微观数据得出了不同的结果,有的表现为房地产财富效应,有的则表现为房地产挤出效应,还有的则表现为房价上涨对消费影响微弱或无影响,这与各国的经济社会环境以及各个学者采用的实证分析方法相关。本文通过建立效用最优化模型推导了居民财富与消费的基本计量方程,该模型关于消费由收入和家庭财富决定的理论与持久收入理论和生命周期理论,以及LC-PIH模型相一致。然后本文选取全国35个大中城市作为研究对象,收集了2002年到2012年全国35个大中城市城镇人均居民消费性支出表示、商品房平均销售价格、房地产投资额、和城镇居民人均可支配收入作为样本观测数据,从宏观角度实证分析得出房价每上涨1%,城镇居民的人均消费支出就会下降0.16%左右,因此对我国居民来说,房价上涨对消费更多是挤出效应,抑制了我国居民的消费。通过对我国经济社会现状分析,发现造成房地产财富效应小于挤出效应的原因,主要归结于以下五个：一是房地产二级交易市场信息渠道不畅通,交易不活跃,拥有多套房屋且用于投资的消费者很难将房价上升带来的房地产财富的增值变现,因而无法形成预期收入；二是我国房地产抵押贷款市场以及住房金融市场还不够发达,不能平滑家庭一生的住宅消费支出,提高了家庭为购房所进行的储蓄；三是我国居民消费观念传统,一部分人还维持着“无债一身轻”的传统消费观念,存够钱再买房,挤出了居民当期的消费；四是我国房地产市场具有很强的需求刚性,房价上涨就会挤出那些准备购买住房刚性需求者的非住房消费；五是我国居民收入差距较大,房价上涨导致越过门槛的“有房者”和被挡在门外的“无房者”之间的差距将进一步拉大,从而使得社会的平均边际消费倾向进一步降低。最后针对上述我国财富效应小于挤出效应原因,遏制房地过快上涨,增加我国房地产的财富效应,减少房价对我国居民消费的挤出效应,本文提出了以下建议：大力发展住房金融市场,完善住房金融体系；控制房地产贷款,防范银行信贷风险；优化房地产供给结构,加强中小户型、廉租房及经济适用房建设；规范住房租赁市场,引导人们向租房的消费观念转变；加大社会保障力度,增强消费者信心。本文的创新之处在于从收入和财富这两个角度理论上梳理了房价上涨对消费的影响,为模型构建提供了理论基础,然后从财富效应和挤出效应两个传导机制入手分析了房价上涨对三类家庭消费的影响,最后结合消费函数的相关理论和效用最优化理论,构建了一个实证模型,选取全国35个大中城市作为为研究对象,实证分析了房价波动对我国居民消费影响的效应,为当前我国政府部门房地产调控政策提供了一个可靠的依据。不足之处在于本文所采用的面板数据时间跨度较短,并且相关的微观调查数据较难获取,从而使得最后的结果可能难以全面地反映房价对我国城镇居民消费水平的影响。
[Abstract]:Prices rising and high consumption rate, and low level, is the two big problems faced by our country, but we still do not fully know housing prices is affected by how the transmission mechanism of residents' consumption, and whether rising house prices will suppress the Chinese residents' consumption.
This paper found that unlike other commodities, real estate has special character, both attributes of investment goods, also has the attribute of consumer durable goods, so the transmission mechanism of the price hike of different families are different. When housing prices, first of all to have housing residents, housing as an investment product, can be part of this revenue through the transfer of cash or in the mortgage market, it will get more mortgage loans, which makes the current consumption increase. The effect of rising prices to promote the consumption of the residents is called the wealth effect. Secondly, for those who rely on rent to live and ready to purchase houses of the people, the first problem is to meet the housing demand for housing, consumer durables for them, housing prices will lead to rising rents, increase their cost of living, but also ready to increase the purchase of housing consumption The purchase cost, so this part of the consumer to pay the rent and purchase of housing, have to increase their savings, to reduce their current consumption. The effect of rising prices curb consumer is known as the crowding out effect. For any country or region, the real estate market will include speculation or investors, and by the rent to live and people ready to purchase housing, they constitute the overall real estate market, but the rise in house prices but they showed a different effect, so the final price increases to the consumer is more wealth effects or crowding out effects need to be studied and analyzed.
Through the literature review found that many domestic and foreign scholars use different macro data and micro data obtained different results, some for the wealth effect of the real estate industry, some real estate is crowding out effect, there is housing prices impact on consumption is weak or no effect, the analysis of this and the countries of the economic and social environment and all the scholars' empirical methods. Through the establishment of a utility optimization model derived the basic equation of household wealth and consumption, the model of consumption depends on income and family wealth theory and permanent income theory and life cycle theory, and consistent LC-PIH model. Then this paper selects the 35 large and medium-sized city as the research object. From 2002 to 2012, the national 35 large and medium-sized city residents per capita consumption expenditure, the average price of commercial housing sales, real estate Property investment, and per capita disposable income of urban residents as the sample data, from a macro perspective empirical analysis that house prices rose 1%, urban residents per capita consumption expenditure will fall by about 0.16%, so for our residents, housing prices rose to more consumption is crowding out effect, inhibit the consumption of our residents.
Through analyzing the present situation of China's economic and social analysis, found the cause of the real estate wealth effect is smaller than the extrusion effect, mainly due to the following five aspects: one is the two real estate market information channel is not smooth, the transaction is not active, has several sets of housing for investment and it is difficult for consumers to cash prices rise in real estate the increase in wealth, so it is difficult to form expected income; the two is China's real estate mortgage market and the housing finance market is still underdeveloped, not smooth family life residential consumption expenditure, improve the families for the purchase in the savings; the three is China's traditional concept of consumption, some people still maintain the traditional "the concept of consumption without debt", save enough money to buy out the residents' current consumption; four is the real estate market in China has a strong rigid demand, prices will squeeze out the Ready to buy some rigid housing demand of non housing consumption; five is the income gap of residents in our country is large, housing prices led between crossed the threshold of "housing" and was blocked at the door of the "no room" will further widen the gap between, so that the average marginal propensity to consume society is further reduced.
Finally, in view of the above China's wealth effect is smaller than the crowding out effect, curb real estate rising too fast, increase the wealth effect of the real estate in our country, reduce the crowding out effect of house prices on household consumption in China, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: developing housing finance market, improve the housing finance system; control of real estate loans, bank credit risk; optimize the supply structure of real estate, to strengthen the small and medium-sized apartment layout, low rent housing and affordable housing construction; standardized housing rental market, and guide people to change to the housing consumption concept; strengthening social security, enhance consumer confidence.
The innovation of this paper is the impact on the consumer prices rise out from the two angles of income and wealth theory, provides a theoretical basis for model construction, and then from the wealth effect and extrusion effect of two transmission mechanism with an analysis of the impact of rising prices on consumption of three types of family, and finally combined with the theory of consumption function and the utility optimization theory, constructs an empirical model, the selection of the national 35 large and medium-sized city as the research object, the empirical analysis of the effect of price fluctuations on the impact of China's household consumption, provide a reliable basis for China's current government regulation of real estate policy. Shortcomings in the time span of the panel data in short, micro survey data and are difficult to obtain, so that the final results may be difficult to fully reflect the price of water consumption of urban residents in China The influence of peace.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

【参考文献】