我国房地产市场调整的趋势、影响及对策分析

发布时间：2018-02-24 11:49

本文关键词： 房地产市场销售价格政策取向　出处：《财贸经济》2014年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：当前我国房地产市场的波动,本质上是一次迟到的周期性调整。把国际经验与我国实际情况结合起来判断:如果没有重大意外事件影响,这轮周期性调整可能持续3~5年时间,多数城市的调整幅度将达到商品房销售量和价格峰值的30%;明后年美国联邦基金利率的上调,将加大我国房地产市场调整的压力。其主要原因在于,住宅供给相对过剩,房价涨幅明显过大,市场预期发生变化,货币信贷环境偏紧,同时地方政府干预使市场矛盾越积越深。市场趋势性调整将对经济增长、金融运行产生严重影响,但具有相对滞后性、逐步放大性和区域分化性特点。政府需要顺应市场规律,采取有效措施稳定市场、调控经济、推进改革,减弱由此带来的负面冲击。
[Abstract]:The current fluctuation of the real estate market in our country is essentially a late periodic adjustment. Combining international experience with the actual situation in China, it is judged that if there are no major unexpected events, this cyclical adjustment may last for 3 to 5 years. The adjustment rate in most cities will reach 30% of the peak value of commercial housing sales and prices. The increase in the US federal funds interest rate in the coming year will increase the pressure on China's real estate market to adjust. The main reason is that the housing supply is relatively oversupply. The increase in house prices is obviously excessive, the market expectations are changing, the monetary and credit environment is tight, and at the same time, the local government intervention has deepened the market contradictions. The trend adjustment of the market will have a serious impact on economic growth and financial operation. The government needs to conform to the market law, take effective measures to stabilize the market, adjust and control the economy, promote reform, and reduce the negative impact.
【作者单位】：华侨大学经济发展与改革研究院;中国社会科学院经济政策研究中心;
【分类号】：F299.23

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