中国金融状况趋势周期的经济效应阐释与风险预测分析

发布时间：2018-02-25 07:14

本文关键词： 金融状况指数金融景气周期循环金融周期预测　出处：《经济问题探索》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从货币政策、外部冲击与内部冲击三个层面进行指标变量的筛选,基于降维思想提取中国金融状况指数(FCI),并研究其与宏观经济变量间的领先滞后关系。结果表明:样本期内,中国正处在第3轮金融景气周期循环的缓慢复苏期,与新一轮金融小周期的快速回升期;价格型货币政策工具、房地产市场与大宗商品价格等有关变量对FCI具有显著的相对重要性;2017年中国实现经济平稳增长是大概率事件,发生系统性金融风险是小概率事件,但要防范局部与区域性金融风险的发生,且应加强数量型货币政策工具调控金融状况的有效性;FCI对未来通货膨胀具有较强预测能力,2017年CPI有望继续回升;预测显示,2017年中国金融状况将步入一轮金融小周期的下行区间,但下行幅度有限,趋势成分表明2017年金融状况仍处于第3轮金融景气周期循环的上行区间;短期周期波动与长期运行趋势间具有内生作用机制,2017年短期周期波动有助于中国金融状况加速回暖与向好发展。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the index variables from three aspects: monetary policy, external shock and internal shock. Based on the idea of dimensionality reduction, the index of China's financial condition is extracted and the leading lag relationship between the index and macroeconomic variables is studied. The results show that China is in the slow recovery period of the third round of financial boom cycle in the sample period. Related variables such as price-based monetary policy instruments, real estate market and commodity prices are of significant relative importance to FCI. A high probability event is that China will achieve steady economic growth in 2017. The occurrence of systemic financial risk is a small probability event, but it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of local and regional financial risks. Moreover, we should strengthen the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy instruments in controlling the financial situation. FCI has a strong ability to predict future inflation, and in 2017, CPI is expected to continue to pick up. The forecast shows that China's financial situation will enter a downward range of a small financial cycle in 2017. In 2017, the financial situation is still in the upward range of the third cycle of the financial boom cycle; There is an endogenetic mechanism between short term cycle fluctuation and long term running trend. In 2017, short term cycle fluctuation is helpful to accelerate the warming and development of China's financial situation.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“新常态下我国系统性区域性金融风险新特征及防范对策研究(16AJY024)”,项目负责人:陈守东
【分类号】：F832

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